2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[zzzh]

12Z EC shows a strong wave entering the Caribbean in day ~10 range. Environment looks very favorable.

[Ianswfl]

12Z EC shows a strong wave entering the Caribbean in day ~10 range. Environment looks very favorable.

Here in SWFL also getting back into a warmer pattern again so anything that forms north of Haiti or the Islands like last night gets pushed west possibly.

The 18z short range euro ensemble run is more west than 12z. Ends at 144 though. That's seperate from Tammy. Euro had it yesterday afternoon. Looked kinda sub tropical though. The longer range 12z had a couple cat1 members hitting south FL.

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 8-240.html

[tolakram]

12Z EC shows a strong wave entering the Caribbean in day ~10 range. Environment looks very favorable.

Here in SWFL also getting back into a warmer pattern again so anything that forms north of Haiti or the Islands like last night gets pushed west possibly.

The 18z short range euro ensemble run is more west than 12z. Ends at 144 though. That's seperate from Tammy. Euro had it yesterday afternoon. Looked kinda sub tropical though. The longer range 12z had a couple cat1 members hitting south FL.

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 8-240.html

You're using the ensembles wrong. Look for groupings, and past 120 hours there has to be even more extreme grouping before anything is an actual event that might happen. Take the latest EPS. This is why the NHC tagged that area. Look at all the low centers at 78 hours.



That's it, that's the last usable indication on the 0Z run. The further you go out the MORE low centers in the same area you want to see. It's not appropriate to show a few members at 200 hours and call it anything. It's nothing.

[SFLcane]

12Z EC shows a strong wave entering the Caribbean in day ~10 range. Environment looks very favorable.

Here in SWFL also getting back into a warmer pattern again so anything that forms north of Haiti or the Islands like last night gets pushed west possibly.

The 18z short range euro ensemble run is more west than 12z. Ends at 144 though. That's seperate from Tammy. Euro had it yesterday afternoon. Looked kinda sub tropical though. The longer range 12z had a couple cat1 members hitting south FL.

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 8-240.html

You're using the ensembles wrong. Look for groupings, and past 120 hours there has to be even more extreme grouping before anything is an actual event that might happen. Take the latest EPS. This is why the NHC tagged that area. Look at all the low centers at 78 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/rBKuqd1.png

That's it, that's the last usable indication on the 0Z run. The further you go out the MORE low centers in the same area you want to see. It's not appropriate to show a few members at 200 hours and call it anything. It's nothing.

This! In any typical run you can always have your few rogue members.

[jlauderdal]

Here in SWFL also getting back into a warmer pattern again so anything that forms north of Haiti or the Islands like last night gets pushed west possibly.

The 18z short range euro ensemble run is more west than 12z. Ends at 144 though. That's seperate from Tammy. Euro had it yesterday afternoon. Looked kinda sub tropical though. The longer range 12z had a couple cat1 members hitting south FL.

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 8-240.html

You're using the ensembles wrong. Look for groupings, and past 120 hours there has to be even more extreme grouping before anything is an actual event that might happen. Take the latest EPS. This is why the NHC tagged that area. Look at all the low centers at 78 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/rBKuqd1.png

That's it, that's the last usable indication on the 0Z run. The further you go out the MORE low centers in the same area you want to see. It's not appropriate to show a few members at 200 hours and call it anything. It's nothing.

This! In any typical run you can always have your few rogue members.

The rogue members into swfl get way more attention than they should.

[cycloneye]

You're using the ensembles wrong. Look for groupings, and past 120 hours there has to be even more extreme grouping before anything is an actual event that might happen. Take the latest EPS. This is why the NHC tagged that area. Look at all the low centers at 78 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/rBKuqd1.png

That's it, that's the last usable indication on the 0Z run. The further you go out the MORE low centers in the same area you want to see. It's not appropriate to show a few members at 200 hours and call it anything. It's nothing.

This! In any typical run you can always have your few rogue members.

The rogue members into swfl get way more attention than they should.

Bingo for that.

[zzzh]

12z GEM shows AEW development in the Caribbean, EC also shows the wave. GFS has the wave turning north before entering the Caribbean.

[ouragans]

Very long rage 6z GFS has a solid cat.3 hitting the Leeward from the Caribbean at day 13. I think I need to back to bed

[AtlanticWind]

12 z Gfs shows Cat 4 near eastern Cuba in long range

[SFLcane]

12 z Gfs shows Cat 4 near eastern Cuba in long range

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1716870569302634578

[SFLcane]

[Weathertracker96]

I’ve looked at models but I had a quick question, is their a wave or crossover system that may jumpstart this potential Caribbean disturbance?
I also know steering is hard to forecast far in advance but *If* a system were to form, the fronts/troughs that saved majority of areas from landfalls may actually cause problems this time around.

[SFLcane]

If something forms..

[DunedinDave]

Looks like that GFS cat 4 storm 12z was just a happy hour run. They got hammered early today. Back to nothing but a weak low at 18z…which is usually when their happy hour runs are.

[zzzh]

All models show monsoon gyre like stuff in the Caribbean, it's hard to predict what will come out of it especially when it will interact with tropical waves.
By the way, you typically see those monsoon gyres in WPAC during summer, not in the Caribbean

[blp]

It's a happy hour special on the Euro Ensembles for Florida from the East and the South.

[AutoPenalti]

It's a happy hour special on the Euro Ensembles for Florida from the East and the South.

https://i.ibb.co/sjKsS9m/73906990.gif

That collision course is lighting in a bottle lol.

[kevin]

There have been 9 category 5 cyclones globally so far this year. We're only behind 2014 (10), 2018 (11) and 1997 (12) in that metric.

[MetroMike]

Everyone seems to have had it with this season, goofy model runs, phantoms. Unfortunately it is dragging on.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z GFS has a pretty violent hurricane in the Caribbean by 11 days.