2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SconnieCane]

On that animation, looks like any troughing is fixed over the Plains and would serve only to yank any Caribbean/Gulf storm up into the coast a la Laura.

['CaneFreak]

Good catch and the upper level pattern looks rough for the US

FWIW, 12z GFS Para shows multiple hurricanes trekking through the Atlantic and develops 99L.

[SFLcane]

Really...

[SconnieCane]

Really...

https://i.imgur.com/c4GhGLK.gif

After all the talk about "double trouble" from Laura and Marco...yeesh.

[cainjamin]

This run of the GFS-Para gives us Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene & Sally, and MAYBE even Teddy and Vicky. Absolutely bonkers run.

[SconnieCane]

I'm a little confused as to what the "GFS-para" is. Just last year, the "old" GFS was replaced by the "GFS-FV3." Is the current "para" a newer version yet or just the "old" (pre-FV3) GFS?

[Hammy]

I'm a little confused as to what the "GFS-para" is. Just last year, the "old" GFS was replaced by the "GFS-FV3." Is the current "para" a newer version yet or just the "old" (pre-FV3) GFS?

I believe it's the successor or update to the FV3. They had the prior version up as the Legacy GFS until recently.

[eastcoastFL]

Really...

https://i.imgur.com/c4GhGLK.gif

After all the talk about "double trouble" from Laura and Marco...yeesh.

For some reason that 2nd storm gets down to the 960s then rapidly weakens to 980s in a day or two. Wonder what is causing that? Shear?

[Emmett_Brown]

I'm a little confused as to what the "GFS-para" is. Just last year, the "old" GFS was replaced by the "GFS-FV3." Is the current "para" a newer version yet or just the "old" (pre-FV3) GFS?

I believe it's the successor or update to the FV3. They had the prior version up as the Legacy GFS until recently.

So far, I like the new GFS para whatever it is. It has a certain flair... it whips up TC's and slings them around with style.

[SconnieCane]

Really...

https://i.imgur.com/c4GhGLK.gif

After all the talk about "double trouble" from Laura and Marco...yeesh.

For some reason that 2nd storm gets down to the 960s then rapidly weakens to 980s in a day or two. Wonder what is causing that? Shear?

At 384 hours, could be anything, really.

[St0rmTh0r]

Really...

https://i.imgur.com/c4GhGLK.gif

After all the talk about "double trouble" from Laura and Marco...yeesh.

Just wow! What a year this is turning out to be. September looks like a record breaking month. List could be exhausted before end of September!

[St0rmTh0r]

This run of the GFS-Para gives us Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene & Sally, and MAYBE even Teddy and Vicky. Absolutely bonkers run.

How far does it run?

[MetroMike]

This run of the GFS-Para gives us Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene & Sally, and MAYBE even Teddy and Vicky. Absolutely bonkers run.

How far does it run?

I'm not seeing what you are seeing. Are you being sarcastic?

[NDG]

Like many of us have been saying to look out for, the latest models still point to a threatening pattern for the Caribbean and US as we head towards the peak of the season.

[Hammy]

This run of the GFS-Para gives us Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene & Sally, and MAYBE even Teddy and Vicky. Absolutely bonkers run.

How far does it run?

384 hours, same as current GFS.

[AtlanticWind]

The GFS tonight shows basically nothing thru the peak of the season.
I really doubt the models solution based on its performance on genesis this year.

But that being said it got me realising how short the peak of the Cape Verde season really is,
If nothing much devoleps in the next 3 to 4 weeks we are already past the main peak of season.

All it takes are conditions to be little off for the next several weeks and we could have a little bit of a
bust for the preseason forecasts.

Just some musing, and on Sept 10th we might have 3 hurricanes active and another flop for the GFS.

[cycloneye]

The model has something but on September 16th.

[jlauderdal]

The GFS tonight shows basically nothing thru the peak of the season.
I really doubt the models solution based on its performance on genesis this year.

But that being said it got me realising how short the peak of the Cape Verde season really is,
If nothing much devoleps in the next 3 to 4 weeks we are already past the main peak of season.

All it takes are conditions to be little off for the next several weeks and we could have a little bit of a
bust for the preseason forecasts.

Just some musing, and on Sept 10th we might have 3 hurricanes active and another flop for the GFS.

But as a Floridian you know October is our most active month for landfills..

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: The model has something but on September 16th.

https://i.imgur.com/6BRwzUj.png

Well,that 999 is gone from the 06z run. Go figure.

[TheStormExpert]

Like many of us have been saying to look out for, the latest models still point to a threatening pattern for the Caribbean and US as we head towards the peak of the season.

https://i.imgur.com/AI3Uf4q.gif
https://i.imgur.com/NRuyLHC.gif
https://i.imgur.com/gc2k2ac.gif

This means nothing if there’s no storms to take advantage of this dangerous setup. Shear might also be a factor now.