2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Ubuntwo]

If there’s anything I can gather from looking at all these runs, it’s the models are depicting several areas of low pressure forming from the monsoon trough and/or its interactions with passing tropical waves, and it they are struggling to resolve a singular outcome. Pick a run at random and it’s a different vort that becomes dominant, and the erratic tracks seem to due in part to fujiwara interactions with the less dominant vorts. Reminds me a lot of Rene and Paulette back in 2020. Until something consolidates I don’t think we’re going to have much of an idea on track/intensity

Yep, the complex nature of the breakdown with the additional 'fun' factor of the tropical wave expected to roll off Africa in a few days makes this a challenging forecast. The ICON has consistently shown this breaking down into three main vorts with closed lows - a three body problem would have us running blind. Uncertainty is well above average.

[skyline385]

very active EPS from the monsoon trough breakdown which has been uptrending on all models

[MetroMike]

The 12Z EC-fast is on board with a MH it appears in the central Atl. moving more west near the end. Not North like the GFS.

[otowntiger]

very active EPS from the monsoon trough breakdown which has been uptrending on all models

https://i.imgur.com/RVziuZH.png

Amazing how utterly non existent the Bermuda high is so far this season. Everything predicted before the season has turned out to be the opposite, except for the hot water- which hasn’t so far meant anything.

[Cachondo23]

very active EPS from the monsoon trough breakdown which has been uptrending on all models

https://i.imgur.com/RVziuZH.png

Amazing how utterly non existent the Bermuda high is so far this season. Everything predicted before the season has turned out to be the opposite, except for the hot water- which hasn’t so far meant anything.

I believe the warm waters, among other factors, was the cause of Beryl exploding before reaching The Grenadines and getting up to Cat 5 south of PR and La Hispaniola.

[otowntiger]

very active EPS from the monsoon trough breakdown which has been uptrending on all models

https://i.imgur.com/RVziuZH.png

Amazing how utterly non existent the Bermuda high is so far this season. Everything predicted before the season has turned out to be the opposite, except for the hot water- which hasn’t so far meant anything.

I believe the warm waters, among other factors, was the cause of Beryl exploding before reaching The Grenadines and getting up to Cat 5 south of PR and La Hispaniola.

Of course. Of course. Other than the very anomalous Beryl.

[mitchell]

The 18z GFS is always good for something to stare at and marvel and today's 18z GFS didn't disappoint!

[Hammy]

GFS really seems to be struggling with the monsoon interaction in determining which of the two MDR waves develops first, it's been flipping back and forth now for several consecutive runs

Meanwhile looks like the monsoon shenanigans are still very much present, Canadian strings out the next wave and shoots the one after almost straight north

[otowntiger]

Wow! other than the gulf tropical storm next week the gfs now showing hostile conditions across the entire basin thru nearly the end of September- nothing develops! What a weird season- again we go from dire doom and gloom record activity predicted to this in the heart of the season.

[Weathertracker96]

Wow! other than the gulf tropical storm next week the gfs now showing hostile conditions across the entire basin thru nearly the end of September- nothing develops! What a weird season- again we go from dire doom and gloom record activity predicted to this in the heart of the season.

And it can easily go back to showing tropical systems. We have two invests out there already. Things can change run to run.

[caneman]

Wow! other than the gulf tropical storm next week the gfs now showing hostile conditions across the entire basin thru nearly the end of September- nothing develops! What a weird season- again we go from dire doom and gloom record activity predicted to this in the heart of the season.

Models are mostly out to lunch and can't seem to figure this pattern out so I'm going to stick to now casting. Lol.

[gatorcane]

Wow! other than the gulf tropical storm next week the gfs now showing hostile conditions across the entire basin thru nearly the end of September- nothing develops! What a weird season- again we go from dire doom and gloom record activity predicted to this in the heart of the season.

Also the CMC looks similar to the GFS as far as no significant development. Here is the GFS shear forecast over the next 7 days, doesn't look particularly favorable with one TUTT shearing the west system and another upper-low shearing the east system. That said the ensembles look bullish, so leaning towards development of at least one of these systems.

[WeatherBoy2000]

At this range ensembles are typically more useful than operationals. Even with a strong ensemble signal there might be an operational run or two that doesn't develop. Gotta watch if non-development continues on future runs paired with weakening support in general.

[Category5Kaiju]

This is the second GFS run in a row that develops a rapidly-forming eastern MDR system at the end of this month (third if you count the feature's presence itself). While it's way to early to know if this is a phantom, it does beg the question of whether this season may be in the works of trying to produce late-season Cape Verde activity, with the very warm waters and active wave train especially.

[Stormlover70]

I am looking east with baited breath. I fear mother nature is about to rear her ugly head.

[TomballEd]

I was wondering if Francine's track NE was a sign of a temporary thing, or the season in Texas ending 2 weeks before the normal end date of the Equinox. There have been 2 October hurricanes, but usually the equinox means hurricane season is over. But the Westerlies will be blowing over Texas for the next 15 days per ensembles (OK, some N-lies and even NE-lies in the ensemble means). Not trying to tempt the fates into dropping another hurricane on us, just noting the models.

. There is always 1949, with an October Cat 2 near Freeport which may have been as strong as a Cat 4 in the Gulf, a system that crossed into the Atlantic basin from the Pacific, and, of course, Hurricane Jerry, the same weekend I was at the Cottn Bowl watching Texas beat OU. The Equinox is only the unofficial end of hurricane season here. Except it came 2 weeks early.
Plenty to watch in the Gulf still, Michael was a Cat 5 in October. But I'm feeling pretty good not buying a generator this summer after 5 days in DFW to have air conditioning and CPAP. That cost well over $1000. 3 months to ice storm season. When I may wish I had bought a generator after all.

[REDHurricane]

This is the second GFS run in a row that develops a rapidly-forming eastern MDR system at the end of this month (third if you count the feature's presence itself). While it's way to early to know if this is a phantom, it does beg the question of whether this season may be in the works of trying to produce late-season Cape Verde activity, with the very warm waters and active wave train especially.

I've been saying it all along, if the primary reason behind the lack of any MDR activity since mid-August has actually been the extreme northern displacement of the WAM, then it seems logical that typical peak season MDR activity will resume once the WAM moves south back to its typical peak season latitude. I really think that people are paying too much attention to climatology (despite how reliable it's been in the past) right now when predicting how the rest of the season will go -- when conditions are this anomalous (WAM, AEJ, SSTs, OHC, etc.) basin-wide, it doesn't necessarily make sense to expect that the Atlantic will follow the same calendar-based pattern as it usually does. Just getting that feeling that the next few months (or even weeks) might have more than a handful of surprises in store for everyone who's been unironically season cancelling the past couple of weeks... so yeah, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if both of the 2 current AOIs (including 93L) fail to meet expectations (or even develop at all) but a resurgence of activity still ends up bursting onto the scene over the last 10-14 days of the month

[Category5Kaiju]

That's now 5 GFS runs in a row that form the eastern MDR system by the month's end, generally heading in a westward direction (6z came in very weak, but it seems to still be a traceable feature).

As an fun sidenote, assuming none of the current lemons in the MDR form, assuming the red AOI in the MDR and the southeastern US coast system develop, and assuming we get no pop-up storms going forward otherwise, should this advertised system form, it'll receive....yup, that's right. The I name.

[Teban54]

That's now 5 GFS runs in a row that form the eastern MDR system by the month's end, generally heading in a westward direction (6z came in very weak, but it seems to still be a traceable feature).

As an fun sidenote, assuming none of the current lemons in the MDR form, assuming the red AOI in the MDR and the southeastern US coast system develop, and assuming we get no pop-up storms going forward otherwise, should this advertised system form, it'll receive....yup, that's right. The I name.

12z GFS still has a traceable piece of vorticity, but doesn't seem to develop it to a TC just like 6z.

But hey, if GFS can't see the formation of TD 7 just 3 hours in advance, how confident are we about the formation of another Eastern Atlantic system 384 hours in advance?

[Stratton23]

00z CMC hints at the CAG becoming active in about 10 days