TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[du1st]

I am looking fodward to the 11am advisory.

[KeyLargoDave]

The fork in the road?

Why don't the southwest winds that are impacting the clouds to the west of Irene show up in any of the steering current plots? If someone could add some knowledge, are those too high? I checked all the levels and don't see a reflection of what we're seeing on the satellite.

[SouthFloridawx]

This is not an actual forcast and is not intended to be.

According to this map irene should be moving more nortwesterly right now and then move more westerly in a day or two. This is a question for you weather experts out there..... Is this is a correct assumption?

[/img]http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF[img][/img]

[JTD]

Anybody who says fishy had better read the 11 a.m. discussion.

[SouthFloridawx]

here is that picture...

[dwg71]

Anybody who says fishy had better read the 11 a.m. discussion.

I read it and still say fishy.. The forecast path is still off the coast of NC, not making landfall. Time will tell. I say fish, have from day one.

[du1st]

For the first time I say fish. ALl the Irene fans must be happy about a 10mph increase!

[Stratusxpeye]

I still say fish but my second option was sc/ga border. So im on either end either out to see recurvature off nc line and further south sc/ga border

[storms in NC]

If I did my math right it would put her around 27.n 67 w in 24 hours

[JPmia]

This is an interesting qoute from NHC:

"...GIVEN THAT THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS RATHER WEAK AND
UNIMPRESSIVE AND MAY NOT WEAKEN THE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST AS MUCH AS THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST."

[DESTRUCTION5]

She's looking wavy again....She keeps insisting on no LLC...

[JTD]

Anybody who says fishy had better read the 11 a.m. discussion.

I read it and still say fishy.. The forecast path is still off the coast of NC, not making landfall. Time will tell. I say fish, have from day one.

Unless the storm turns NE from the 11 a.m. track, Irene still hits the U.S around Delaware.

[storm4u]

National Weather Service Taunton MA
1055 AM EDT Thu Aug 11 2005

The significantly warmer than normal weather pattern of August will continue through the weekend as the Bermuda high becomes a bit stronger.


hum something to think about!!

[InimanaChoogamaga]

Not sure where Irene will hit -- NC or Mid-Atlantic? But she's not a fish. She will not be able to recurve fast enough to avoid a hit.

Warning: This is not an official forecast because I do not have flippn' sweet forecasting skills like the NHC.

[ALhurricane]

She's looking wavy again....She keeps insisting on no LLC...

There is nothing wavy about Irene at this point.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Looks like the LLC is getting better defined with time and is currently at the SW corner of the convection.

[Ivanhater]

i strongly feel this will not recurve...i dont see it busting through the ridge

[tallywx]

Anybody who says fishy had better read the 11 a.m. discussion.

I read it and still say fishy.. The forecast path is still off the coast of NC, not making landfall. Time will tell. I say fish, have from day one.

Yeah, maybe you said it from day one, but it's a purile prediction when you have 3000 miles of ocean for which to be "correct." Fish way out in the open atlantic? Fish east of bermuda? Fish 30 miles east of hatteras?

I bet when you originally said fish, you didn't think it would even get as far west as it has.

So if you believe it may still be a fish now, then that's a prediction. But stating that you've said it from day one adds no credibility.

[TS Zack]

She's looking wavy again....She keeps insisting on no LLC...

I have never seen a better look to a 50mph Tropical Storm than what Irene looks now. This storm is probably stronger than what the NHC says.

Quickscat is not always the way to go! Satellite is kind of obvious at this point.

[Thunder44]

She's looking wavy again....She keeps insisting on no LLC...

There is nothing wavy about Irene at this point.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Looks like the LLC is getting better defined with time and is currently at the SW corner of the convection.

That's what I thought. You can more low clouds on the SW side heading inwards towards the center than this morning. It's just getting better organized.

[clfenwi]

Anybody who says fishy had better read the 11 a.m. discussion.

I read it and still say fishy.. The forecast path is still off the coast of NC, not making landfall. Time will tell. I say fish, have from day one.

Unless the storm turns NE from the 11 a.m. track, Irene still hits the U.S around Delaware.

It would be a history-maker to do that... only storm to into Delaware from the sea in the past 100 years, did so on an east-ward trajectory. Hurricanes taking the path forecast by the NHC tend to curve out in some fashion, either into New England a la Gloria or Bob, or head to sea, a la Emily.

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

I'm not trying to put something into the NHC forecast that isn't there; just pointing out history that at this time I see no compelling reason to argue against.