Rita Recon Reports

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
NorthGaWeather

#1761 Postby NorthGaWeather » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:17 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:surface based upon a dropsonde

it weakened so much 1, because it moved over the northern Gulf, 2. it went through an EWRC 3. the shear increased 4. there was some dry air


The NW Gulf is not a reason. Besides the shear hasn't done much too it. The eyewall cycle and dry air did it.
0 likes   

NorthGaWeather

#1762 Postby NorthGaWeather » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:18 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:probably will be very similar to Hurricane Ivan, which as we all saw last year, was a very destructive hurricane even though its winds may not have reached category 3 status


Mayfield was just comparing it to Audrey in terms of surge and wind damage. IMO this will be a bit worse than Ivan.
0 likes   

houstoncat5

#1763 Postby houstoncat5 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:20 pm

Also the HRD windmaps that are used are too low on windspeeds and are junk. Chris Landsea told me the maps mark powell make are too low on windspeeds. Chris Landsea told me Ivan was close to cat4. That Mark Powell is not very good at all when it comes to windspeeds and doesnt know what hes doin.
0 likes   

NorthGaWeather

#1764 Postby NorthGaWeather » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:21 pm

houstoncat5 wrote:Also the HRD windmaps that are used are too low on windspeeds and are junk. Chris Landsea told me the maps mark powell make are too low on windspeeds. Chris Landsea told me Ivan was close to cat4. That Mark Powell is not very good at all when it comes to windspeeds and doesnt know what hes doin.


I would agree that Ivan was a stronger Cat 3. This cat 2 garbage is hilarious.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11163
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#1765 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:23 pm

NorthGaWeather wrote:
houstoncat5 wrote:Also the HRD windmaps that are used are too low on windspeeds and are junk. Chris Landsea told me the maps mark powell make are too low on windspeeds. Chris Landsea told me Ivan was close to cat4. That Mark Powell is not very good at all when it comes to windspeeds and doesnt know what hes doin.


I would agree that Ivan was a stronger Cat 3. This cat 2 garbage is hilarious.


do not even try to tell me ivan was not even a 3....the winds i went through were hell
0 likes   

houstoncat5

#1766 Postby houstoncat5 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:23 pm

NorthGaWeather wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:surface based upon a dropsonde

it weakened so much 1, because it moved over the northern Gulf, 2. it went through an EWRC 3. the shear increased 4. there was some dry air


The NW Gulf is not a reason. Besides the shear hasn't done much too it. The eyewall cycle and dry air did it.


I dont thinks its the northern Gulf itself. One people say the contitental shelf has cooler waters under the surface, but the west coast of FL is shallow and Charley was bombing up until landfall. Its because the more stable air over the USA gets worked into the systems. Storms like Jeanne, Andrew Charley see there is water on both sides of the state and more moisture to work with and suck in.
0 likes   

bigmoney755

#1767 Postby bigmoney755 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:24 pm

does this mean 942mb?
217
UZNT13 KNHC 240413
XXAA 74037 99289 70935 08283 99942 26200 ///// 00/// ///// /////
92158 25000 30085 85903 23012 30574 70606 21862 32587 88999 77999
0 likes   

NorthGaWeather

#1768 Postby NorthGaWeather » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:25 pm

ivanhater wrote:
NorthGaWeather wrote:
houstoncat5 wrote:Also the HRD windmaps that are used are too low on windspeeds and are junk. Chris Landsea told me the maps mark powell make are too low on windspeeds. Chris Landsea told me Ivan was close to cat4. That Mark Powell is not very good at all when it comes to windspeeds and doesnt know what hes doin.


I would agree that Ivan was a stronger Cat 3. This cat 2 garbage is hilarious.


do not even try to tell me ivan was not even a 3....the winds i went through were hell


I fully agree it was a 3.
0 likes   

User avatar
Windy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1628
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:13 pm

#1769 Postby Windy » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:26 pm

No, that's an eyewall drop, not an eye drop.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11163
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#1770 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:26 pm

NorthGaWeather wrote:
ivanhater wrote:
NorthGaWeather wrote:
houstoncat5 wrote:Also the HRD windmaps that are used are too low on windspeeds and are junk. Chris Landsea told me the maps mark powell make are too low on windspeeds. Chris Landsea told me Ivan was close to cat4. That Mark Powell is not very good at all when it comes to windspeeds and doesnt know what hes doin.


I would agree that Ivan was a stronger Cat 3. This cat 2 garbage is hilarious.


do not even try to tell me ivan was not even a 3....the winds i went through were hell


I fully agree it was a 3.


i know you do, some other folks i see are implying that
0 likes   

houstoncat5

#1771 Postby houstoncat5 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:35 pm

ivanhater wrote:
NorthGaWeather wrote:
houstoncat5 wrote:Also the HRD windmaps that are used are too low on windspeeds and are junk. Chris Landsea told me the maps mark powell make are too low on windspeeds. Chris Landsea told me Ivan was close to cat4. That Mark Powell is not very good at all when it comes to windspeeds and doesnt know what hes doin.


I would agree that Ivan was a stronger Cat 3. This cat 2 garbage is hilarious.


do not even try to tell me ivan was not even a 3....the winds i went through were hell


They were close to cat4 still. Chris Collura who was in Ivan told me on the eastern side the winds were still near cat4. Ivan was no weak three. Also around 5pm that night when Ivans pressure fell to 931mb the winds were closer to 150 I think abnd went to 135 at landfall. I dont understand why they play these games at the HRD about windspeeds being lower.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11163
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#1772 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:38 pm

yes i was in the worst part of ivan, and believ me the winds were powerful, the back door was buckling in and had to move the couch to keep it from busting in and the next morning the forest was stripped bear and thousands upon thousands of trees down, doubt a weak 3 or 2 did that
0 likes   

NorthGaWeather

#1773 Postby NorthGaWeather » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:38 pm

ivanhater wrote:
NorthGaWeather wrote:
ivanhater wrote:
NorthGaWeather wrote:
houstoncat5 wrote:Also the HRD windmaps that are used are too low on windspeeds and are junk. Chris Landsea told me the maps mark powell make are too low on windspeeds. Chris Landsea told me Ivan was close to cat4. That Mark Powell is not very good at all when it comes to windspeeds and doesnt know what hes doin.


I would agree that Ivan was a stronger Cat 3. This cat 2 garbage is hilarious.


do not even try to tell me ivan was not even a 3....the winds i went through were hell


I fully agree it was a 3.




i know you do, some other folks i see are implying that


Oh ok lol.
0 likes   

houstoncat5

#1774 Postby houstoncat5 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:39 pm

ivanhater wrote:yes i was in the worst part of ivan, and believ me the winds were powerful, the back door was buckling in and had to move the couch to keep it from busting in and the next morning the forest was stripped bear and thousands upon thousands of trees down, doubt a weak 3 or 2 did that



True. Jeanne was 120mph and we didnt see the wind damage we saw with Ivan. Ivans wind damage was complete in some areas and catastrophic structure failure also.
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#1775 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:42 pm

get that loser great one off of the board
0 likes   

User avatar
Windy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1628
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:13 pm

#1776 Postby Windy » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:42 pm

835
SXXX50 KNHC 240424
AF309 2518A RITA HDOB 23 KNHC
0412. 2818N 09227W 03048 5044 218 079 110 106 080 03058 0000000000
0413 2820N 09228W 03047 5050 218 083 116 096 084 03052 0000000000
0413. 2821N 09230W 03051 5056 216 085 116 088 085 03049 0000000000
0414 2822N 09231W 03045 5061 214 085 116 092 086 03038 0000000000
0414. 2823N 09232W 03050 5068 213 087 120 092 088 03036 0000000000
0415 2825N 09234W 03047 5075 210 085 114 108 086 03025 0000000000
0415. 2826N 09235W 03050 5082 206 083 110 110 084 03022 0000000000
0416 2827N 09237W 03046 5089 204 087 112 110 089 03010 0000000000
0416. 2829N 09238W 03049 5097 201 089 108 108 091 03006 0000000000
0417 2830N 09240W 03048 5106 202 092 112 110 092 02995 0000000000
0417. 2832N 09242W 03048 5114 202 095 110 110 096 02987 0000000000
0418 2833N 09243W 03047 5123 202 097 110 110 099 02978 0000000000
0418. 2834N 09245W 03047 5132 203 099 110 110 100 02969 0000000000
0419 2836N 09246W 03053 5142 205 091 096 096 098 02964 0000000000
0419. 2837N 09248W 03045 5153 202 097 108 108 101 02945 0000000000
0420 2839N 09249W 03047 5164 201 102 114 114 105 02937 0000000000
0420. 2840N 09251W 03048 5177 201 106 118 118 107 02924 0000000000
0421 2841N 09253W 03048 5187 201 104 120 118 106 02914 0000000000
0421. 2843N 09254W 03049 5197 203 104 124 120 105 02907 0000000000
0422 2844N 09256W 03048 5207 204 105 126 118 106 02895 0000000000
0 likes   

houstoncat5

#1777 Postby houstoncat5 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:45 pm

Also I think the dyno garbage people are puring their crap into the storm. Ive never seen a storm fall apart like this. Lili fell apart because one she was a small storm, and two Isidore a week earlier passed by and it left as JB says a wake in the atmosphere and took the energy out of it. With Rita Im baffled. We need PHD studies into this.
0 likes   

User avatar
Windy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1628
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:13 pm

#1778 Postby Windy » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:49 pm

107kt in SE quad so far.
0 likes   

bigmoney755

#1779 Postby bigmoney755 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:51 pm

have they done NE quad?
0 likes   

houstoncat5

#1780 Postby houstoncat5 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:52 pm

bigmoney755 wrote:have they done NE quad?


I never understand why they dont go into the NE quad first. maybe they had to much to drink lol. :D :wink:
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: gib, Google [Bot], Hurricanehink, jhpigott and 92 guests