2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[HurricaneEdouard]

So quiet for a longer period of time? Maybe signs of a below average season?

Sent from my LG-SP320 using Tapatalk

Not at all. Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard and Fay all formed earlier in the season relative to their counterparts in the most active Atlantic season in history (Cindy, Dennis, Emily and Franklin, in 2005). Among those, Cristobal, Edouard and Fay all set records for the earliest formation of the third, fifth and sixth named storms, respectively, in Atlantic history.

So far, we are "ahead" of 2005 (in terms of named storms, not hurricanes or intensity thereof); we will only start lagging behind 2005 - which isn't saying much - if Gonzalo forms later than July 23, which is when 2005's Gert formed. The MDR is warming to levels analogous to 2005, 2010 and 2017, and conditions are overall becoming less hostile to development. As of July 7, Phil Klotzbach and CSU is predicting 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes this year; I will note that in August of 2005, CSU predicted 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes, which ended up being a significant undercount to the true totals of 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, and 7 major hurricanes.

My point isn't to overhype this season or suggest this season will be as active as 2005, but with a dip in activity in mid- to late-July being entirely climatological, and with a season that is so far setting records for earliest-developing systems (including two pre-season storms), it is far, far too early for "season cancel" posts; it is extremely likely this will be a significantly above-average season in terms of activity.

[NDG]

Why not one picture of how dust free the western basin is now is, Daytona Beach Shores. I has been a long time since the waters have been so warm in this part of FL even during upwelling during westerly winds.

[psyclone]

We are in what i call the "moat" of cane season. it is the no man's land that separates early season appetizers from the "real" season which tends to get going in mid to late August. It isn't like there's nothing happening though... for it is now that the sea is heating up...not only at the surface but deep down. If the real season heaves some whoppers at us (i expect it will)...it will be precisely because not much is happening now..You gotta heat up the water before you drop the pasta.. The moat is always tough sledding for weather fanatics with an itchy trigger finger...especially when some of the more enthusiastic participants tried to convince us things would go bang in July...they rarely do. But now that we're inching toward August... we can no longer assume model storms are phantoms. 2 weeks of additional tranquility is reasonable...maybe 3 or (gasp) 4...but likely no more. Here locally, our waters are exceptionally warm. this extreme warmth surrounds Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida...regions that are plenty warm even in a normal year are much warmer than average. The foundation for a high end event(s) is being quietly constructed.

[MississippiWx]

Has anyone noticed the vigorous closed low-level spin at 20N 55W? It even has a flare up of thunderstorms with it. Amazing how everything is wanting to spin this year. This wave may need to be watched as it heads west.

[Aric Dunn]

Has anyone noticed the vigorous closed low-level spin at 20N 55W? It even has a flare up of thunderstorms with it. Amazing how everything is wanting to spin this year. This wave may need to be watched as it heads west.

Yeah it was there yesterday. I have been watching it to see if any decent convection builds.

[AutoPenalti]

That’s one wicked swirl

[IsabelaWeather]

I also noticed a swirl south of Puerto Rico, I find odd. Just seems like a day that causes everything to swirl before a massive tornado outbreak. You get a lot of spin ups from marginal thunderstorms, but not much real action until a bit later.

Kind of feels like that way here seeing all of these swirls out there.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=pr&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12

[supercane4867]

Has anyone noticed the vigorous closed low-level spin at 20N 55W? It even has a flare up of thunderstorms with it. Amazing how everything is wanting to spin this year. This wave may need to be watched as it heads west.

Yeah it was there yesterday. I have been watching it to see if any decent convection builds.


https://i.ibb.co/mCSkXNQ/232332.gif

Jose is that you? (I’m referring to the 2011 Jose of course).

[St0rmTh0r]

Is it normal to have this many swirls? Is it indicative of hyperactivity?

[Hammy]

I think it's becoming increasingly safe to say we don't see an MDR storm until August.

[toad strangler]

#2020


 http://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1284993247421648901

[gatorcane]

This is the real one for Sal.

https://i.imgur.com/xfZ1fHN.jpg

The mid-level dry air image I posted as a SAL image is another reason nothing is getting going anytime soon.

Catching up on this thread from the last 24 hours of posts, there is a lot of warm water out there as folks have noted but there is more to just warm water as far as hurricane development. The models should be showing something in the WPAC La Niña or not at least in the long-range and nothing. The EPAC is also struggling clearly.

The season will ramp up I am just not sure we are headed for the “lid coming off” hyperactive season so many are insisting at least based on the indicators I am seeing.

[toad strangler]

This is the real one for Sal.

https://i.imgur.com/xfZ1fHN.jpg

The mid-level dry air image I posted as a SAL image is another reason nothing is getting going anytime soon.

Catching up on this thread from the last 24 hours of posts, there is a lot of warm water out there as folks have noted but there is more to just warm water as far as hurricane development. The models should be showing something in the WPAC La Niña or not at least in the long-range and nothing. The EPAC is also struggling clearly.

The season will ramp up I am just not sure we are headed for the “lid coming off” hyperactive season so many are insisting at least based on the indicators I am seeing.

OK, what indicators are you seeing? It has to be much more than SAL and mid level dry air in the second half of July as those aren't indicators. They are climo.

[Steve]

This is the real one for Sal.

https://i.imgur.com/xfZ1fHN.jpg

The mid-level dry air image I posted as a SAL image is another reason nothing is getting going anytime soon.

Catching up on this thread from the last 24 hours of posts, there is a lot of warm water out there as folks have noted but there is more to just warm water as far as hurricane development. The models should be showing something in the WPAC La Niña or not at least in the long-range and nothing. The EPAC is also struggling clearly.

The season will ramp up I am just not sure we are headed for the “lid coming off” hyperactive season so many are insisting at least based on the indicators I am seeing.

There is no quantification of the lid coming off. I think I know what you mean, but it's not going to be all of the sudden we have storms and they don't stop until they're done. We're about to drop back into Phase 2 MJO, so we're probably getting development or close to it this week. Here's the JMA.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

But even with that, it might be after 2 weeks until the African Waves are strong and start to make their presence felt. There's still a lot of sinking air around. So whether storms materialize all at once, every few weeks or whatever remains to be seen. I'm not in the least worried about dry mid-level air at this point stunting the season. We're probably getting out of July with a G storm. Then we'll see what happens after the first week or week and a half in August.
There's always this, and many recent seasons have lagged to the back side.

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1285184435948789766

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1285201289882882049

[Shell Mound]

Top six hyperactive Atlantic seasons and earliest formation date* in MDR (satellite era)

2005 – 11 Jul
1995 – 12 Jul
2004 – 3 Aug
2017 – 19 Jun
1961 – 17 Jul
1998 – 27 Jul

*TD or stronger

So only ~17% or one-sixth of these years (2004) comprised an exception. All five others had at least a TD in the MDR prior to August.

If we don’t see at least one TD (preferably TS) in the MDR before August, then the forecasts for a hyperactive year may bust.

The main problem is that SSTs, on average, have been too cool over the past few months for instability to enable TC formation.

Of course, I am referring to SSTs in the MDR.

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1284837592874266624

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1285240411548725248

[CyclonicFury]

Top six hyperactive Atlantic seasons and earliest formation date* in MDR (satellite era)

2005 – 11 Jul
1995 – 12 Jul
2004 – 3 Aug
2017 – 19 Jun
1961 – 17 Jul
1998 – 27 Jul

*TD or stronger

So only ~17% or one-sixth of these years (2004) comprised an exception. All five others had at least a TD in the MDR prior to August.

If we don’t see at least one TD (preferably TS) in the MDR before August, then the forecasts for a hyperactive year may bust.

The main problem is that SSTs, on average, have been too cool over the past few months for instability to enable TC formation.

Of course, I am referring to SSTs in the MDR.

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1284837592874266624

Well, we have an invest in the MDR right now, and there is support from the 00Z EPS for another potential wave with a chance to develop over the MDR before the month is over.

[aspen]

Top six hyperactive Atlantic seasons and earliest formation date* in MDR (satellite era)

2005 – 11 Jul
1995 – 12 Jul
2004 – 3 Aug
2017 – 19 Jun
1961 – 17 Jul
1998 – 27 Jul

*TD or stronger

So only ~17% or one-sixth of these years (2004) comprised an exception. All five others had at least a TD in the MDR prior to August.

If we don’t see at least one TD (preferably TS) in the MDR before August, then the forecasts for a hyperactive year may bust.

The main problem is that SSTs, on average, have been too cool over the past few months for instability to enable TC formation.

Of course, I am referring to SSTs in the MDR.

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1284837592874266624

Well, we have an invest in the MDR right now, and there is support from the 00Z EPS for another potential wave with a chance to develop over the MDR before the month is over.

We also don’t need a storm in the MDR to signal a hyperactive season. Any AEW-based system in July would do, either in the MDR or as far west as the Gulf. However, there are some exceptions, like 2013 (two MDR July systems but <40 ACE) and 1999 (completely dead July but >160 ACE and five Cat 4s).