Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[Aric Dunn]

has nobody actually noticed this .,, or did i just miss it as i was reading the posts

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html



A TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED ALONG 17N32W 2N35W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WEAK CIRCULATION APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED
ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 9N. THIS WAVE IS VERY LARGE WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING AN AREA OF OVER 12 DEG OF
LONGITUDE. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE CONTINUED IMPRESSIVE
STRUCTURE...CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED AND MAINLY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WEAK CIRCULATION CENTER.



its actualy quite impressive ... it is moving under a upper ridge and convection appear to be on the increase as does moisture..

[Aric Dunn]

Yes, that is a well defined LL Circulation at 10N/35W for this time of year. Even building a bit of convection. We'll see if it can develop further and survive the cooler central Atlantic SSTs

the atlantic ssts are well warm enough .... the central and eastern atlantic is way above normal

..

[KWT]

Woah Aric thats really impressive, those extensive colder anomalies that were present are nearly all but gone and the higher latitudes are well above normal!

SST's are probably still on the marginal side depsite temps being above average further west into the Atlantic and also SAL has increased as you'd expect at this time of year should mean that we are still probably a month away at least before we really have to watch this part of the Atlantic.

[Aric Dunn]

Woah Aric thats really impressive, those extensive colder anomalies that were present are nearly all but gone and the higher latitudes are well above normal!

SST's are probably still on the marginal side depsite temps being above average further west into the Atlantic and also SAL has increased as you'd expect at this time of year should mean that we are still probably a month away at least before we really have to watch this part of the Atlantic.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html
load that loop and look at 10 north 35 west ..

that is a well defined circulation .. and if convection keeps firing like that .. we will have to watch it very closely..... as it will head west for a few days ... so no colder sst's to contend with..

[Aric Dunn]

oh and when you load that loop put the sst overlay on it you will see that ssts are well warm enough .. at least on the surface.. but its moving so that wont be a problem

[KWT]

Yep that wave does look like it has a half decent circulation though convection is obviously lacking somewhat and so I can only guess instablity is a little bit of an issue. Still I suppose its a nice wave to watch, odds heavily stacked against it when you look at historical storm development regions in June.

[Aric Dunn]

Yep that wave does look like it has a half decent circulation though convection is obviously lacking somewhat and so I can only guess instablity is a little bit of an issue. Still I suppose its a nice wave to watch, odds heavily stacked against it when you look at historical storm development regions in June.

right! well climatology does not directly affect the present!! lol

and yeah instability has been lacking mostly due to the dryer air but that is changing slowly .. the 205 points the increase in convection ... yesterday it was a dry swirl ..

and of course im not saying it close to developing but it actually has a shot.. as it moves into a slightly better environment

[cycloneye]

A very interesting wave structure:

[Aric Dunn]

A very interesting wave structure:

they put the floater on it from ramsdis?

[Aric Dunn]

you can use the extended sector a do a good loop of the system

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhe.html

[KWT]

yeah thats fair enough Aric, it does have a good circulation I have to give it that and so if it can get any better convection it may well need to be watched. shear looks pretty hefty in the Caribbean mind you I have to admit at the moment.

Nice structure cycloneye, just a real lakc of any deep convection.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah thats fair enough Aric, it does have a good circulation I have to give it that and so if it can get any better convection it may well need to be watched. shear looks pretty hefty in the Caribbean mind you I have to admit at the moment.

Nice structure cycloneye, just a real lakc of any deep convection.

agreed needs more convection !! but the its still days away from shear

[Aric Dunn]

wow shows up very nice on the TPW !! the problem is that its been running into dry air ahead of it but that may change .. im going to keep an eye on it .

[KWT]

Very interesting Aric, you can see the way the circulation is drawing in some moister air from the east around its circulation and moderating the dry air ahead of it.

[Aric Dunn]

anyone know what the farthest east something as formed in june ..??

[Aric Dunn]

i know bertha in 96 was the farthest east july storm

[KWT]

I believe a tropical depression formed from a Cape Verde wave, TD2 of the 2000 season was very easterly, though that was during the latter part of June but interesting.

[RL3AO]

Ana 79

[Aric Dunn]

Ana 79

cool thankyou .. that thing stuck out like a sore thumb..lol

well if it happened before i guess it can happen again lol ..

[KWT]

So its pretty clear that the odds are amazingly heavily stacked against a system such as this, this far east forming, all we have from the looks of things is TD2 and TS Ana.