Disturbed area in East Atlantic (No Development)

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Strong convection.

[cycloneye]

When will they start to mention it in the Tropical Weather Outlooks? I remember that they put in the TWO a wave that was still inside Africa.

Code: Select all

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091137
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2008


 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME




http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, how can they NOT mention that. The convection has held overnight folks...

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Losing organization.

[hurricanetrack]

It still not time for this to develop. Just look at the GFS and UKMET. Even they do not show this consolidating for another couple of days. Patience- it's coming. We just don't know where it's going.

[cycloneye]

And the saying "stays weak more west" applies to this system.This is what I am worried about here in the Eastern Caribbean.

[Frank2]

I wouldn't worry about it...

[Mecklenburg]

wow, how can they NOT mention that. The convection has held overnight folks...

i was wondering about that too... it's convection is enough to warrant an invest...

[Sanibel]

I was going to post last night not to get too hyped about this system because right now the hurricane belt is drying everything up that launches into it from Africa. Rule of thumb is let it form first.

[Fego]

Is appropriate to look for developing factors (convection, llc, convergence, etc)... not what the models proyect... then, an invest clasification will have to wait.

[Scorpion]

I wouldn't worry about it...

Lol are you serious? Why then does it have the support of every global model?

[cheezyWXguy]

Well, I do believe convection is beginning to fall apart right now. But it doesnt mean anything. The waves, even the ones that develop, look like crap when they come off of africa, due to the change in environment. I expect this to start reforming convection in a few hours, but right now, its very premature to judge what will happen. Just need to wait and see.

[Derek Ortt]

The GFS is developing the wave at 40W right now

Check out the 950mb vorticity

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

looks like a pure phantomcane to me. Makes no sense why it remains stationary for about 48 hours

[Derek Ortt]

the current wave... models only have weak development, if at all

[cycloneye]

Although Derek made a clarification about which is the wave NCEP model (GFS) and others are latching on,for contiuity the runs will be posted in this thread.

12z GFS at 48 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

12z GFS at 60 Hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

12z GFS at 72 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

12z GFS at 90 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

12z GFS at 102 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

12z GFS at 114 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

12z GFS at 144 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

12z GFS at 168 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

12z GFS at 216 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif Very close to North Coast of Puerto Rico.

12z GFS at 252 Hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252l.gif Very close to the Bahamas.

12z GFS at 300 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_300l.gif From this point is Fantasyland but it has a brush or landfall in South Florida.

[Derek Ortt]

The other models are getting this wave... NCEP is getting the on ahead

There is not as much model support for development as it appears on the surface, since the models are developing different systems

[Scorpion]

252.. threatening FL

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252m.gif