Tropics Offically Flat lined !! (dead)

[Sanibel]

Is 2009 toast?

[sandyb]

yall give up to easy its still early

[DanKellFla]

Is 2009 toast?

No, just average. I would say it is 'white bread."

[MGC]

Lots of shear and a couple of naked swirls.....I doubt there will be much more activity in the tropics. Maybe a storm or two. Doubt I make my forecast number of nine named systems......MGC

[Nederlander]

Its definitely well on its way IMO. I'd be real surprised to see another named system...

[HURRICANELONNY]

That's for sure. A weird year with a weird El Nino. This pretty much sums it up.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

[Wx_Warrior]

Sweet! After personally enduring Rita, Humberto and Ike, SETX needs a break!

[smw1981]

Sweet! After personally enduring Rita, Humberto and Ike, SETX needs a break!

I think everyone living on the Gulf Coast and the eastern (Atlantic) side of Florida feels the same way... I can't imagine there are too many people that are disappointed that we have had a pretty quiet year (so far), except for not being able to watch the storms, track them, etc.

[LaBreeze]

Its definitely well on its way IMO. I'd be real surprised to see another named system...

I would pick the middle slice about now.

[Category 5]

Pacific is red hot.

[Sanibel]

2009 sort of showed the EPAC active Atlantic inactive relationship.

[HURAKAN]

Pacific is red hot.

EPAC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml?

13 NS - Normally the 13th NS forms on Sep. 21

6 H - Normally the 6th H forms on Sep. 5 and 7th Sep. 17

3 MH - Normally the 3rd MH forms on Sep. 19


CPAC:

2 NS and 1 depression (LANA was TD 06E)


WPAC:

The JMA has classified 14 tropical storms.

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My point, red hot? More like orange.

[Category 5]

Yeah, alot of people are missing the TC of the year.

[Sanibel]

98L might be the last hurrah and form as a TS that curves off into the Atlantic at most.


It doesn't look promising right now and 2009 has defeated every previous system that looked like this so far.

[jinftl]

Surviving has been the issue more this season for storms than actual formation. That said, we still have managed to have 2 majors so far. I just don't see what will abruptly end the formation of additional storms 10 days after the climatologic peak of the season. Sure, they may fight shear or remain boring fish storms, but overall sst are slightly above normal in the basin, shear is as low as it has been all season now, and I see no reason why we won't see 3-5 more named storms by the end of the season.

Again, they may be wimps due duration or track, but storms have been able to form this season....as evidenced by the fact that we are actually in line with climatology for the number of named storms by this point in the season. From the NHC, the average date of the formation of the "G" storm in a season is September 20. In terms of # of storms, we are remarkably average, so the 'average' of 10 storms in a season seems very reachable.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

98L might be the last hurrah and form as a TS that curves off into the Atlantic at most.


It doesn't look promising right now and 2009 has defeated every previous system that looked like this so far.

[srainhoutx]

Still think we may see some activity in the W Caribbean and SW GOM before all is said and done. Just a hunch.

[BigA]

Still think we may see some activity in the W Caribbean and SW GOM before all is said and done. Just a hunch.

Maybe...the NAM shows a tropical storm in the southern gulf in 3 days in 2 consecutive runs, the GFS has a short-lived low there in the 3-4 day period, and the NOGAPS shows a sharp wave around the 6 day period that looks like it is trying to close off in the western gulf. I can't say that I'm anywhere near expecting development with baited breath (I dont even know exactly where the NAM's energy comes from) but I think we'll see 2-3 more TS s this year, with one reaching hurricane status (total guess-cast).

[perk]

Still think we may see some activity in the W Caribbean and SW GOM before all is said and done. Just a hunch.

Maybe...the NAM shows a tropical storm in the southern gulf in 3 days in 2 consecutive runs, the GFS has a short-lived low there in the 3-4 day period, and the NOGAPS shows a sharp wave around the 6 day period that looks like it is trying to close off in the western gulf. I can't say that I'm anywhere near expecting development with baited breath (I dont even know exactly where the NAM's energy comes from) but I think we'll see 2-3 more TS s this year, with one reaching hurricane status (total guess-cast).

I could'nt agree more, i'm not ready to to sound the all clear on the season yet.

[Sanibel]

Conditions just mauled 98L. I think these conditions are permanent for the rest of the season.

[gatorcane]

Sanibel, given where you live, not sure I would be celebrating the end of the season so quickly, considering its Sept. 20th. Granted, the weak el nino, may be just enough to curb anything in the Western Caribbean, but I am certainly not going to be making any end-of-season comments at this point:

Did you know October is the most active month for SFL hits from tropical storms and hurricanes? Snippet below, from NWS Miami:

September is the most active month for tropical activity in the Atlantic basin. However, for mainland South Florida, September ranks second behind October for the total number of tropical storms and hurricanes to impact the area. However, major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) have hit South Florida most often during the month of September

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/mfl/news ... SoFLTC.pdf