BOC system

[Macrocane]

I think that people is paying too much attention on the MJO and actually this year the MJO signal has been mostly weak, it seems that this year it won't be as important for development as it was on 2008, certainly the MJO could help to trigger development but I wouldn't say it will be a determinant factor.

[Ivanhater]

Vorticity increasing in the region. Also very soupy for anything that tries to get going

[KWT]

The Caribbean is getting that monsoon trough look. Something might gel.

Yeah I agree, there is an awful lot of convection down there, some of it fairly deep. If we see an increase of coverage then this will probably be invested...but still probably a little shy of that still...

[Ivanhater]

18z Nam

[Nimbus]

If an anticyclone builds over the area look for persistent convection near the center where the shear is less intense. A lot of the convection out in the mid gulf for example is just being whipped up by the shear from an ULL. I think some of the intense convection off Nicaragua on the other hand is in a lower shear area.

[Ivanhater]

Lots of deep convection going on



Stationary low

[Cyclone1]

Somethings gotta give, here, eventually.

[KWT]

That tropical wave that is coming along currently in the C.Caribbean is the one that I think will interact with the weak stationary low and possibly that will help to spark things off...

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS Para a lot weaker on this run
edit..strengthens a bit in the boc

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST EAST OF NICARAGUA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
LAND. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[ROCK]

I get the feeling the lid is going to come off here next week. Call it a gut feeling or whatever but something has got to give eventually.

[xcool22]

development No Time Soon.imo

[Florida1118]

Me either. Only 0% now. just another waiting game.

[xcool22]

justing bored

[cycloneye]

The code yellow is stripped from this area.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[rockyman]

My attention has definitely shifted from the SW Caribbean to the area around Jamaica, with the incoming tropical wave. MIMIC shows the progression of this wave, as it tracked WSW across the Leeward Islands. Also, notice that the wave is now able to tap deep tropical moisture to the south:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

The 00Z CMC Shows this vorticity moving up into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and "landfalling" between Pensacola and Mobile.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... city&hour=

The 6Z GFS shows the vorticity moving into the central Gulf, then weakening, possibly moving toward TX/MX:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

The 00Z NOGAPS moves this vorticity toward the TX/MX border:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W MOVING W
AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE WAVE EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO NEAR LAKE
MARACAIBO IN WESTERN VENEZUELA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST ONE BETWEEN BUOY 42959 AND THE ABC
ISLANDS. THE WAVE IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION JUST S OF HAITI
AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
W CARIBBEAN THIS EARLY TONIGHT.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1047.shtml?

Low level steering:


Low level vorticity:


Wind Shear:


Question. Could the upper low to the north of the area could "mimic" an upper-level high directly over the sytem, providing ventilation?

[ROCK]

ULL have been known to create an outflow channel to help ventilate a mature TC....what I have seen

[Sanibel]

There looks to be a hostile upper just to the north of the Caribbean disturbed convection. So some of the convection could be convergence flare-ups.


There's a naked spiral approaching the Windwards.

[ROCK]

Maybe the NAM was not that out of whack after all.....does have some turning in the mid levels....if it can persist and get to the surface then maybe we have something....

If the NAM nails this I am going to send Ivan a 6 pack... and never give him crap about posting the NAM.....

[ROCK]

There looks to be a hostile upper just to the north of the Caribbean disturbed convection. So some of the convection could be convergence flare-ups.


There's a naked spiral approaching the Windwards.

I have seen many a TC develope out of the shadow of an ULL....we shall see...