2011 WPAC Season

[Typhoon Hunter]

at this time last year, we were on our 15th tropical cyclone

No, we weren't, because the JTWC isn't official.

yeah i know that but JTWC uses 1 minute classification just like NHC and thats all that matters...

Still waiting for your two cat 5 landfalls

With such glorious named storms as Haiting and Tokage, using named systems as a metric of seasonal activity is a bad idea. Actually Banyan hasn't been much better given that it has had such a poorly defined low-level circulation for much of its exsitence.

Looking at Ryan Maue's site, current WPAC ACE sits at 203.14; the to-date climatological mean is 216. The WPAC is running below average. It joins every other basin in the world with a pathetic season.

This season has been far from pathetic. I guess you must have missed typhoon Songda in May, the ridiculous Wilma-esque explosive intensification of typhoon Muifa (or as our friend Storming likes to call it "Mafia" ) typhoon Nanmadol which made landfall as a strong cat 4 equivalent on Luzon as did Nalgae. And then Roke which peaked as a very strong typhoon (cat 4) just off the coast of Japan over 30N. What's your definition of a season which isn't pathetic, Jupiter's Great Red Spot engulfing the whole Pacific?

[FireRat]

Hi typhoon folks,

Any thoughts the season could "pull a 2006", as in late October and November typhoons smashing the Philippines?? I ask because of the many powerful storms that already have seemed to be attracted to Luzon this year.

[StormingB81]

This season has been far from pathetic. I guess you must have missed typhoon Songda in May, the ridiculous Wilma-esque explosive intensification of typhoon Muifa (or as our friend Storming likes to call it "Mafia" ) typhoon Nanmadol which made landfall as a strong cat 4 equivalent on Luzon as did Nalgae. And then Roke which peaked as a very strong typhoon (cat 4) just off the coast of Japan over 30N. What's your definition of a season which isn't pathetic, Jupiter's Great Red Spot engulfing the whole Pacific?

oppppps....sorry! lol

[euro6208]

Still waiting for your two cat 5 landfalls

well one already did. Super Typhoon Nalgae with 150 knots 1 minute sustained winds...

This is from Nalgae's thread:

very small wind field. although landfall intensity is at category 4 super typhoon strength of 130 knots 1 minute winds. i would nudge the intensity a bit higher to 150 knots 1 minute landfall category 5 based on as said earlier on nalgae's very small wind field....god bless the philippines........

one more and it looks like i was right with 2...




They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[euro6208]

Hi typhoon folks,

Any thoughts the season could "pull a 2006", as in late October and November typhoons smashing the Philippines?? I ask because of the many powerful storms that already have seemed to be attracted to Luzon this year.

let's hope not...I wouldn't be surprised if it happened again since luzon is the #1 area in the world for tropical cyclones and powerful landfalls. I went to youtube and watched typhoon seasons from the past and was astounded to see so many powerful landfalls 99 percent of all seasons...luzon is like a magnet!

I remember that year very well... The 3rd of 6 typhoons to hit the philippines...Super Typhoon Cimaron made landfall at 155 knots 1 minute winds! according to author,

AFWA rendered a rating of T7.5/7.5 at 0531, 1131,
and 1431 UTC on the 29th, noting that constraints were broken due to
the rapid intensification. Also, the SAB analysis at 29/0833 UTC was
T7.5/7.5. The SAB rating at 29/0233 UTC had been T7.0/7.0, but the
remarks indicate that the analyst felt very strongly that the system was
more intense, but held back out of respect for the Dvorak rules. He
also noted that the visual Data-T number was T8.0. In an e-mail, the
same SAB analyst stated that he could not remember a storm with a 26 C
eye being maintained for nearly 10 hours (and in GOES imagery at that!)
while remaining embedded in a CMG (and at times CDG) ring without some
breakdown. Also, the JTWC satellite bulletins at 29/0230 and 29/0830
UTC noted that the AODT numbers were 7.6 and 7.8, respectively.

As a result of this, I requested Dr. Karl Hoarau (whom I regard as
an expert Dvorak analyst), to study imagery of Cimaron and render his
opinion. Karl agreed with the SAB and AFWA analyses and estimated a
peak intensity of 155 kts.





who knows how strong he got....

October 27 – November 4

[Typhoon Hunter]

Still waiting for your two cat 5 landfalls

well one already did. Super Typhoon Nalgae with 150 knots 1 minute sustained winds...

This is from Nalgae's thread:

very small wind field. although landfall intensity is at category 4 super typhoon strength of 130 knots 1 minute winds. i would nudge the intensity a bit higher to 150 knots 1 minute landfall category 5 based on as said earlier on nalgae's very small wind field....god bless the philippines........

one more and it looks like i was right with 2...

They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

Yes and the sea is purple and the sky is green because I say it is....

I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two more threats to the Philippines before this year is out, then it's time to turn our attention to the southern hemisphere!

[Typhoon10]

Well all, looks like the season is over. I agree with some of the comments, Phillipines was a magnet for storms this year. Japan also took a reasonable battering. Even Hainan and Vietnam suffered. Typhoons seemed to go everywhere except Hong Kong!

[Chacor]

I wouldn't say the season's over quite yet. November usually holds a few surprises in store. Cimaron, Chebi and Durian were an extremely lethal combination in 2006, all storms existed in November.

[Typhoon Hunter]

I wouldn't say the season's over quite yet. November usually holds a few surprises in store. Cimaron, Chebi and Durian were an extremely lethal combination in 2006, all storms existed in November.

Exactly! Wait for this dry phase of the MJO to pass and we may have one or two more surprises in store!

[euro6208]

the wet phrase of the mjo is returning to the western pacific. i expect a some very powerful typhoons to develop in the next few weeks.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

edit: disclaimer added by tolakram

[StormingB81]

I cant believe how long it has been quite.....wonder if the season could be over....headed into the last 29 days...however there have been storms after the season is OFFICIALLY over. we shall see

[dexterlabio]

I actually forgot the threat of potential storms because the weather here in Manila is very, very fine. It's been sunny for two weeks now but I guess the cold surge of the northeasterly winds is starting to dominate the country. It's almost as chilly as Christmas especially during nighttime, and I am expecting much cooler conditions by December. I think my prediction is right with that of a chillier last quarter of the year.



My personal prediction on TC activity for the rest of the year has changed a bit. The previous weeks have been quiet, making this year short of what could have been a much active season. I expect at least 1 major TC before the year ends. The month of November has just started, and possibly, we could see some activity until the first week of December. Typhoons Nanmadol (2004) and Utor (2006) are some examples of storms that existed during December, so we're never sure when this season will last.

[euro6208]

I cant believe how long it has been quite.....wonder if the season could be over....headed into the last 29 days...however there have been storms after the season is OFFICIALLY over. we shall see

the wpac has no season. it is year round with the lowest activity in february and march...

[dexterlabio]

The strengthening ridge of high pressure area off Japan, colder and drier air blowing from the north-northeast, and the strong easterlies at this time of the year...all in all MIGHT spell the end of the season this year...

[euro6208]

really weird. no development so far but i still think we might see 1 more storm as a very strong mjo will be moving over our area





typhoon2000:

An increased chance for Tropical Cyclogenesis for the Philippine Sea or Caroline
Islands (Southwest of Guam). Possible arrival of a renewed wet-phase MJO, favorable
upper-level winds, warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and some numerical weather
forecast guidance models favor tropical cyclone development during this period.
Confidence: LOW.

euro forecasting alot of precipitation over the western pacific but no development but we'll see...

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season finished with 19 named storms...The 2011 Typhoon season finished with 20 named storms. Close call...The only two seasons in the Atlantic that are known to have surpasses the Western Pacific is 2005 and last year.

Quiet there.

[Chacor]

You can't make that comparison legitimately, at least not since the NHC started naming subtropical storms and even more so since the JMA took over storm naming in the WPAC.

[euro6208]

You can't make that comparison legitimately, at least not since the NHC started naming subtropical storms and even more so since the JMA took over storm naming in the WPAC.

yeah remember nhc and jma are totally different. nhc- 1 minute...jma- 10 minute...

jtwc uses 1 minute like nhc so we have 24 tropical cyclones according to jtwc...

correct me if i'm wrong but isn't nhc the only agency in the world that uses that word *subtropical* system? maybe that's why theres been an increase in their number of storms?

[Chacor]

Meteo France warn on subtropical systems as well but I do not recall them naming subtropical storms.

[StormingB81]

WHoa! We have an Invest out there!