Gulf Disturbance Week of June 27th (Is invest 95L)

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like our favorite ridge will keep this away from the northern gulf coast, even though we could use any TS or weak storm we can get. Hopefully south Texas gets some rain as this one looks to be Mexico as of now.

[wxman57]

While the current models are interesting, I'd still point out that last Mon-Wed the models were forecasting pretty much the same sort of development in the same area to be happening right now.

In fact, this image was posted on June 16th, valid tomorrow evening:


And last Wednesday's NOGAPS run valid tomorrow afternoon:


And the Canadian model run from last Friday forecasting a low in the SW Gulf tomorrow morning:


Bottom line - don't get carried away just yet on model predictions of development next week. The disturbance in question is a relatively low-amplitude tropical wave that's nowhere near the strength of what became Alex last year at this same time. Keep an eye on it, sure, just in case.

[srainhoutx]

HPC afternoon Update:

USED A 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
COMPROMISE THEREAFTER TO ACCOUNT FOR ISSUES NEAR THE WEST COAST
AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/5 OF THE 00Z
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTS A POTENTIALLY CONVECTIVE LOW
MOVING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...A SOLUTION THE 12Z GFS/12Z CANADIAN
HINTED AT YESTERDAY. THE 17Z COORDINATION CALL WITH THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER LED TO ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES WITH THE DEPICTION OF
THIS FEATURE.

[lrak]

June is a big tease, we have had some rain today and next week it'll probably turn out the same.

[Macrocane]

I think that this new low have more support than the scenario depicted last week, I would consider the Euro an outlier right now, at the end it could be right though.

[Portastorm]

This is probably the kiss of death for our rain chances next week ... but I see Accuweather is now honking about this possibility.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/51427/tropical-disturbance-in-the-gu.asp

[hurricanetrack]

Well at least the GFS is not alone in its "there will eventually be a tropical cyclone" predictions. I am always fascinated at how several global computer models can forecast something to develop, as was the case last week like wxman57 pointed, and yet it does not materialize. Why? What happened that made the models "think" that? And I don't want the "well, they're just crap" explanations. Some good reasoning as to why this happens would be nice- lots of smart people up in here

[tailgater]

Well now it's a done deal the NAM is in.

[Pearl River]

Cue the Bears!

From New Orleans AFD:

IN THE TROPICS...WILL BE WATCHING A WAVE MOVE FROM THE CARIBBEAN
SEA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME OF THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WHICH
MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO WITH
TIME. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING.

[Dean4Storms]

I agree with wxman57 that until we see more organization from the TW and see the models remain consistent with the solution and not keep back peddling with this development we should not get overly excited over it.

Give it a few more days of model runs and that TW traversing the Carib. and see what we got!

[wxman57]

I think that this new low have more support than the scenario depicted last week, I would consider the Euro an outlier right now, at the end it could be right though.

I'll remind you that the Euro was the "outlier" last week when the GFS, Canadian and NOGAPS were predicting a storm in the Gulf today/tomorrow. It was right. I'll believe the predictions of a storm in the Gulf when the models still all agree on development this weekend.

[cycloneye]

One thing is for sure,and that is the consistency of GFS. In fact at 18z run, is more bullish with a below 1000 mb low.





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[BigB0882]

The only thing I am sure of is that if anything does form, it will not hit anywhere near the TX/MX border. I never know where a storm will hit far out but I do know it wont hit where initially predicted.

THIS IS NOT A FORECAST!

[Macrocane]

I'll remind you that the Euro was the "outlier" last week when the GFS, Canadian and NOGAPS were predicting a storm in the Gulf today/tomorrow. It was right. I'll believe the predictions of a storm in the Gulf when the models still all agree on development this weekend.

Yeah, that's why I said it could be right, but I agree that we need to see the consistency or inconsistency of the models on the next few days.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

PTracker, Tailgator, and Pearl River at least we are getting some good rains today and hopefully tomorrow as well. Should be enough to at least get us through next week as it looks to be hot and dry again. IF and that is a huge IF something does make its way into the Bay of Campeche, our death ridge looks to be locked in again and whatever is out there would more than likely get pushed into Mexico.

And hurricanetrack made a good point. To those that keep posting model maps of phantom storms day after day, why not give some explanations as to why for a solid 4 or 5 days the GFS for example shows a storm in the gulf forming in say 7-8 days and then suddenly drops it and moves forward to the following week showing the same thing all over again?

[Rainband]

PTracker, Tailgator, and Pearl River at least we are getting some good rains today and hopefully tomorrow as well. Should be enough to at least get us through next week as it looks to be hot and dry again. IF and that is a huge IF something does make its way into the Bay of Campeche, our death ridge looks to be locked in again and whatever is out there would more than likely get pushed into Mexico.

And hurricanetrack made a good point. To those that keep posting model maps of phantom storms day after day, why not give some explanations as to why for a solid 4 or 5 days the GFS for example shows a storm in the gulf forming in say 7-8 days and then suddenly drops it and moves forward to the following week showing the same thing all over again?

computer error its a program

[srainhoutx]

PTracker, Tailgator, and Pearl River at least we are getting some good rains today and hopefully tomorrow as well. Should be enough to at least get us through next week as it looks to be hot and dry again. IF and that is a huge IF something does make its way into the Bay of Campeche, our death ridge looks to be locked in again and whatever is out there would more than likely get pushed into Mexico.

And hurricanetrack made a good point. To those that keep posting model maps of phantom storms day after day, why not give some explanations as to why for a solid 4 or 5 days the GFS for example shows a storm in the gulf forming in say 7-8 days and then suddenly drops it and moves forward to the following week showing the same thing all over again?

computer error its a program

The GFS is much improved since the upgrade last season. While it is too soon to know for sure, the Euro support does lend credence and certainly has been noted by the HPC.

[tailgater]

Before this gets out of hand, I don't know of any regular to this board that fully believes a model(any Model) a week out. As the title says Possible Gulf Disturbance. That's all. If you are sure it will not develop thats fine but I'll keep watching just in case.
The moisture that was forecast last week has finally reached me.

[ronjon]

18Z GFS has tropical storm into Corpus. Interesting that it also brews up a home grown storm near the FL panhandle at 288 hrs. Totally fiction but it may indicate conditions are getting ripe for cyclone formation.

[Dean4Storms]

18z GFS also has the South TX TS making a loop back down into the BOC. Strange run!