2012 WPAC season

[euro6208]

interesting...our current storm, kirogi, has been used 3 times since 2000 the first time it was used was in 2000...when it peaked at category 4 115 knots typhoon!...kirogi made landfall as a category 1 typhoon near tokyo...



then in 2005, kirogi was even stronger...125 knots...category 4 strength, just shy of super typhoon strength, but good thing is that it missed japan by a few hundred miles....

2012 kirogi is by far weaker...peaking at only moderate tropical storm and affecting no one...

[dexterlabio]

models show possible development of our next TC...euro's latest shows it Taiwan/China-bound again but is very weak or barely a storm.

[RobWESTPACWX]

The area to the East of the PI needs to be watched as well, if that forms it could enhance that SW monsoon again and really put another blow on to Manila.

[dexterlabio]

That could be what the models have been hinting to develop early next week. If it tracks towards Taiwan, SW monsoon would be enhanced again...

[dexterlabio]

The brewing El Nino might be central-based one as I read in the ENSO thread. I suppose 2004 El Nino had more warming in the central Pacific rather than the east. I don't know how would that affect TC activity in WPAC throughout the year if it would extend the season into the last quarter of the year or the opposite...

[euro6208]

the environment in the west pacific is extremely favorable..once el nino kicks in, then it's hell...the most hellish enviroment in the world...











see page 1...

[euro6208]

the west pacific is truly the hottest real estate for tropical cyclones in the world.. amazing..!

[dexterlabio]

WPAC is in a dry phase but we still keep on seeing TC activity with Kai-tak in the Philippines and the models showing another development by next week. GFS has been showing a system moving towards Southern Japan and Euro on the other hand showing a weak system in Southern China.

With the rate this is going, I think we are really in for an active typhoon season. If I'm not mistaken, we have seen above average number of tropical cyclones as of this date, isn't it?

[Typhoon Hunter]

Dexter, we're currently exactly 2 storms above average, 13 named so far, average by 15th August is 11.

The last time the Wpac had an above average named storms in a season was in 2004, yes 8 years ago!!

[euro6208]

the ITCZ runs from east of luzon to north of guam, i think thats why our storms are forming more north this year...

During Week-1 and Week-2, tropical cyclone formation is more likely than average across the western north Pacific, in an area displaced to the north from the climatological average formation locations. Additionally, tropical (or sub-tropical) storm formation is likely across the central Pacific.

what a change from the last update showing the week 1 with development and week 2, which we are now at, showing no development...although kai-tak developed...

[euro6208]

impressive...kai-tak is now our 9th typhoon this year...the *ber* months is closing in and the enviroment is extremely favorable, add in el nino...

[Typhoon Hunter]

impressive...kai-tak is now our 9th typhoon this year...the *ber* months is closing in and the enviroment is extremely favorable, add in el nino...

Yup GFS showing two more storms in the latest 12z run, both heading for Japan or Korea. Busy times ahead and I think this year could be the first above average since 2004!

[somethingfunny]

I guess this is the thread where I should post this video. I have to share this video from Typhoon Haikui.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1TkIxIhGhk&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

[dexterlabio]

^weather reporting at its best. wow i know it's kinda fun and thrilling to be in the middle of extreme weather like typhoons but really that was a risky spot to do a news report.

[euro6208]

gosh they keep coming! another storm headed for the philippine/taiwan area and strengthening!

[dexterlabio]

Euro finally shows something significant in the long range...I remember Euro was not too impressed with Kai-tak then but the storm grew into a typhoon and they adjusted. GFS is also showing development in the same area. I know it is long range and there can be changes but I will be keeping an eye on this phantom storm as much as I keep an eye on the TD off northeastern Luzon.

[euro6208]

what is with the storms this year? they seem to want to make landfall somewhere...will this continue throughout 2012?

[dexterlabio]

^things will get more critical by the last quarter of the year when the high pressure area over Japan is at its strongest and tends to steer far-fetched Pacific systems to the west, thus increasing landfall risk for SE Asia.

Though I've read some info and learned that El Nino is also characterized by stronger mid-latitude troughs and the break in the stirring ridge is located near 130E to 135E longitude...meaning that while storms tend to become more intense, there's a chance that they would get picked by the trough before even reaching the SE Asia landmass...but the risk is still there for the Pacific islands and Japanese archipelago. Best example would be the 1997 season.

The recent El Nino years (2004, 2006, 2009) however, had shown higher incidents of strong tropical cyclones making landfall in East/SE Asia.

[euro6208]

^things will get more critical by the last quarter of the year when the high pressure area over Japan is at its strongest and tends to steer far-fetched Pacific systems to the west, thus increasing landfall risk for SE Asia.

Though I've read some info and learned that El Nino is also characterized by stronger mid-latitude troughs and the break in the stirring ridge is located near 130E to 135E longitude...meaning that while storms tend to become more intense, there's a chance that they would get picked by the trough before even reaching the SE Asia landmass...but the risk is still there for the Pacific islands and Japanese archipelago. Best example would be the 1997 season.

The recent El Nino years (2004, 2006, 2009) however, had shown higher incidents of strong tropical cyclones making landfall in East/SE Asia.

interesting...1997 is an east based el nino. less tropical cyclone landfalls but a high number of strong typhoons...10 category 5 alone! (Paka hit Guam in December of that year)

2004,2006, and 2009 are modoki el ninos...more tropical cyclone landfalls with slightly less number of strong typhoons (category 4,5)...

i think it all depends whether this year's el nino will be east based or modoki...

but it seems like each season, with or without el nino or even with la nina, a strong typhoon or typhoons makes landfall somewhere...

[euro6208]

according to euro, taiwan is going to get smacked hard from tembin and another monster that's developing west of guam...