Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean

[NDG]

I don't expect much out of this tropical wave over the next few days, vorticity seems to be going straight towards western Hisponiola and eastern Cuba.
The ECMWF still persistent that it will track towards western Bahamas/SE FL.
Might have to watch it once it gets to that area late in the week.

[Gustywind]

Big thunderstorms in Guadeloupe especially in my area . One has just boombing near my house causing a serious poweroutage. Electricity is back but that will be an euphemisma to say and describe you how the lightnings are making an impressive show tonight... like the thunder!
This twave continue to show us that the hurricane season is back. Very convective with strong electric activity continues tonight in Guadeloupe!

[Nimbus]

Looks like an ULL spinning over the Florida Straits. That may be increasing shear from the south. Still could be plenty of rain blown up over the big islands even if this stays an open wave.

[NDG]

[Ntxw]

I agree with slow if any development from this system. It does appear to be clearing the way for future systems. The tutt in the central Atlantic is being kept at bay thanks to pouch 07L. Will help reduce shear under and behind it.

[abajan]

Big thunderstorms in Guadeloupe especially in my area . One has just boombing near my house causing a serious poweroutage. Electricity is back but that will be an euphemisma to say and describe you how the lightnings are making an impressive show tonight... like the thunder!
This twave continue to show us that the hurricane season is back. Very convective with strong electric activity continues tonight in Guadeloupe!

Yep. I just had a look at the latest water vapor loop and just knew that Guadeloupe had to be experiencing significant weather. So, I figured that I should pop over here to see what you were saying.

Stay safe.

[Gustywind]

Big thunderstorms in Guadeloupe especially in my area . One has just boombing near my house causing a serious poweroutage. Electricity is back but that will be an euphemisma to say and describe you how the lightnings are making an impressive show tonight... like the thunder!
This twave continue to show us that the hurricane season is back. Very convective with strong electric activity continues tonight in Guadeloupe!

Yep. I just had a look at the latest water vapor loop and just knew that Guadeloupe had to be experiencing significant weather. So, I figured that I should pop over here to see what you were saying.

Stay safe.

Thanks to you my friend, glad to see that you understand what we have dealt with today . Things seems to slighlty improve even if we have briefs episodes of strong showers and somtimes isolated lightnings.

[Gustywind]

Things seems to activate in the deep tropics because of Guadeloupe could be in the viewfinder... as another twave should concern the butterfly island during the end of the week (labeled for now as 99L and could becoming a TD, etc. status if conditions allow it, but we're far away from that, should it verifies first)

WEATHER. A wave is evacuated, an alternative approach

franceantilles.fr31.07.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 180235.php

While the tropical wave that we interested throughout the day continue to gradually evacuated, another phenomenon is in approach, which could involve us at the weekend. Yellow vigilance remains appropriate.

Wave tropical No. 18, the most active part of which was between Dominica and Antigua in the second part of night, concerned the archipelago throughout the day today, spilling rollups of rain with nothing outstanding, according to the forecaster weather France. Some municipalities have been a little more rainfall than others: up to 100 mm (100 litres per m2) in 24 hours on the relief of Pointe-Noire, 85 mm and the Souffriere in Saint-Claude, 76 mm in Sainte-Anne, 60 mm in Basse-Terre, 58 mm in Raizet, 53 mm in Chazeau / Les Abymes, 39 mm in Sainte-Rose... Marie-Galante has been the wettest dependencies with 82 mm.

This evening, the sky remains covered, especially on the islands of North (Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy), which impacted later, must know storms of beautiful intensities until tomorrow morning, after weather France. In Guadeloupe, the return to a green level of vigilance could intervene tomorrow morning. The improvement should emerge throughout the day. The overcast in the morning, will gradually give way to some thinned in the afternoon. However, instability should continue at least until Wednesday, a lot of showers trailing in the wake of the wave. A more sunny weather expected to return Thursday, but the lull should be only of short duration, a new wave to interest the archipelago at the end of the week.

[northjaxpro]

Convection has flared near where the main vorticity is located to the southwest of Puerto Rico early this morning. However, the wave is heading toward Hispaniola which will in the short term significantly hinder development probabilities.

We have to see what will be left of this area within the next 36 hours. If the wave can stay enough intact on its approach to the SE Bahamas, we may have to monitor this system more carefully as conditions could be at least marginally conducive for development by that time.

[NDG]

The TW still looks impressive on the MIMIC-TPW loop.

[Sanibel]

Even if this gets blown down the season is obviously ramping up.

[tailgater]

I guess our Buddy( I forget his name) that writes the detailed TWO's must not be working today because this is looking really good or bad depending on your outlook on storms. Yet it gets no mention, for a wave that was so dry most of it's life, it sure looks like it could bring some flooding rains to DR\Haiti.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES1 ... B67ZAa.jpg

[rockyman]

The first visible loops this morning are interesting...the wave seems to have sharpened overnight, due south of the east tip of Hispaniola

[canes04]

I can't believe the NHC has yet to mention this area. The area ESE of PR looks suspicious this morning.
Still believe this will become a named storm.

[Blown Away]

I can't believe the NHC has yet to mention this area. The area ESE of PR looks suspicious this morning.
Still believe this will become a named storm.

I agree, maybe a circulation developing just ESE of PR?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

Luis can you go outside and look up in the sky to verify if there is an LLC developing?

[NDG]

Trough axis and greatest surface vorticity is SW of PR not SE.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS does deepen 07L some and landfall at 126 hours near Cape Canaveral Florida and then moves into the GOM. Probably just another strong wave moving over Florida, but still gotta keep an eye on it.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[Blown Away]

If I'm reading the 06z GFS correctly, it seems the trough axis splits and the GFS tries to develop the north half into a low that moves over/just north of DR, through the Bahamas, and into Cape Canaveral in 126 hours? Maybe the suspicious area rotating just E of PR is the area that breaks off and moves WNW?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/prvs.html

[Blown Away]

0% chance given to this area, finally some props!!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM HISPANIOLA
EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
SPREAD OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[canes04]

Blown, I think the NHC read our posts
Anyway, still surprised this TW is getting downplayed.