Early June Development in WCarib or BOC? (Is Invest 91L)

[TheStormExpert]

If anything at all ends up developing out of this mess! It could possibly end up being somewhat like T.S. Arlene(2005) and T.S. Alberto(2006). Those are my guesses of possible analog storms for the possible storm.

[NDG]

18z GFS shows a closed low developing in the BOC by next Monday afternoon but not directly developing from the TD2 in the EPAC.
It shows the vorticity of the EPAC system dying out as it crosses MX and into the BOC.

[wxman57]

Is it possible if it makes it to the BOC without discontinuation of advisories that this may still be Barbara if it reorganizes and hits somewhere in the Gulf making Andrea not be used until a later system

Highly unlikely it could survive to reach the BoC with its surface circulation intact. But as was stated, if it DID happen then it would be renamed TD One in the BoC.

[Hurricaneman]

If one looks at the 0zGFS the low starts to form around 90hrs, but the broad low covers the BOC and the yucatan which starts to consolidate round 150hrs in the BOC

[Javlin]

Looks like another potential spot may be off Belize/Honduras



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[N2FSU]

Convection is really firing this morning:

[Hurricaneman]

Im starting to wonder if this could become both Andrea and ?Barry?, the GFS has development at times of lows at times in the BOC and near Belieze or I could just be over analyzing

[Hurricaneman]

I just looked at the 6zGFS and it seems to be moving to the Euros depiction of this system so if I was a betting man I would go with the euros depiction

[Jay Grymes]

OKay .. I'm confused. From the HRD/AOML TCFAQ, B5:

The rule used to be that if the tropical storm or hurricane moved into a different basin . . .
However, these rules have now changed at the National Hurricane Center and if the system remains a tropical cyclone as it moves across Central America, then it will keep the original name. Only if the tropical cyclone dissipates with just a tropical disturbance remaining, will the hurricane warning center give the system a new name assuming it becomes a tropical cyclone once again in its new basin.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS is starting development at 102hrs in the GOM 100mi NW of the Yucatan, thats a change that needs to be monitored

[Dean4Storms]

OKay .. I'm confused. From the HRD/AOML TCFAQ, B5:

The rule used to be that if the tropical storm or hurricane moved into a different basin . . .
However, these rules have now changed at the National Hurricane Center and if the system remains a tropical cyclone as it moves across Central America, then it will keep the original name. Only if the tropical cyclone dissipates with just a tropical disturbance remaining, will the hurricane warning center give the system a new name assuming it becomes a tropical cyclone once again in its new basin.

That is my understanding now.

If Tropical Storm Barbara remains a Closed Low (TD) over into the BOC and attains TS Status once again it remains named Barbara.

[Aric Dunn]

The 12zGFS is starting development at 102hrs in the GOM 100mi NW of the Yucatan, thats a change that needs to be monitored

actually in a as little as 72 hours. likely the remnants of Barbara reforming

[Riptide]

OKay .. I'm confused. From the HRD/AOML TCFAQ, B5:

The rule used to be that if the tropical storm or hurricane moved into a different basin . . .
However, these rules have now changed at the National Hurricane Center and if the system remains a tropical cyclone as it moves across Central America, then it will keep the original name. Only if the tropical cyclone dissipates with just a tropical disturbance remaining, will the hurricane warning center give the system a new name assuming it becomes a tropical cyclone once again in its new basin.

That is my understanding now.

If Tropical Storm Barbara remains a Closed Low (TD) over into the BOC and attains TS Status once again it remains named Barbara.

Yeah but does the ACE count towards the Atlantic Basin and such?

[Dean4Storms]

OKay .. I'm confused. From the HRD/AOML TCFAQ, B5:

The rule used to be that if the tropical storm or hurricane moved into a different basin . . .
However, these rules have now changed at the National Hurricane Center and if the system remains a tropical cyclone as it moves across Central America, then it will keep the original name. Only if the tropical cyclone dissipates with just a tropical disturbance remaining, will the hurricane warning center give the system a new name assuming it becomes a tropical cyclone once again in its new basin.

That is my understanding now.

If Tropical Storm Barbara remains a Closed Low (TD) over into the BOC and attains TS Status once again it remains named Barbara.

Yeah but does the ACE count towards the Atlantic Basin and such?

I'm not sure how they handle the ACE with this. Someone else here might know.

[N2FSU]

The 12zGFS is starting development at 102hrs in the GOM 100mi NW of the Yucatan, thats a change that needs to be monitored

actually in a as little as 72 hours. likely the remnants of Barbara reforming

12Z GFS at 72hr:

[Hurricaneman]

I believe the ACE goes to the basin it is in so if it crosses into the BOC the atlantic gets the ACE numbers, but I could be wrong

[Aric Dunn]

The 12zGFS is starting development at 102hrs in the GOM 100mi NW of the Yucatan, thats a change that needs to be monitored

actually in a as little as 72 hours. likely the remnants of Barbara reforming

12Z GFS at 72hr:

12x 72 hr

[Dean4Storms]

At 108hrs GFS has a large closed low still NW of the Yucatan.

[Dean4Storms]

At 114hr, very broad and not organized, little wind at 900mb.

[Dean4Storms]

At 120hrs closes off again NW of Yucatan. Some 30kt winds well east over Yucatan Channel at 900mb.