Tropical Wave in NW Caribbean/Yucatan (Is Invest 95L)

[floridasun78]

i want see storms dont weakening at night. if dont maybe 2pm or 8pm outlook say some thing

[ROCK]

i want see storms dont weakening at night. if dont maybe 2pm or 8pm outlook say some thing

agree.....but as we have seen this year these pulse up and down. The low level rotation I see is on the western edge still leaving behind what is left....a collapsing MLC......sigh

[tailgater]

RAMM has a floater on it

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

Yeah, looks like it just spit out a naked swirl or eddy to the west.

[ROCK]

RAMM has a floater on it

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

Yeah, looks like it just spit out a naked swirl or eddy to the west.

yeah it did.....look east and see another naked swirl rapidly approaching....maybe it can eat on some of these left overs out there and do something.

[floridasun78]

that ull to west could kill the wave i dont see ull moving that much

[MGC]

This looks like a rerun of 92L.....ULL waiting in WCarb.....MGC

[ninel conde]

it was just a blob enhanced by the big west atlantic trof.

[floridasun78]

it gone that why outlook never spoke about it

[Gustywind]

8 AM TWD:


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N73W TO 20N72W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN BROAD LOW-LEVEL...700 MB...TROUGHING
LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATING A LOCAL MAXIMUM FROM 11N-21N BETWEEN
66W-72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 71W-76W
AND IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 10N ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

[ROCK]

it was just a blob enhanced by the big west atlantic trof.

actually, its part of a tropical wave....see TWD

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 22 2013


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N81W TO 22N80W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN BROAD LOW-LEVEL...SURFACE TO 700
MB...TROUGHING LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING MAXIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 73W-83W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 76W-83W.

[N2FSU]

Convection is really firing in this area today. Anything worth watching?

[northjaxpro]

Yes, today is the best I have seen this wave look in terms of convection since it entered into the Caribbean. It is going to run out of time and open sea shortly to even try to develop as this wave will be moving into Central America soon.

[ROCK]

the NAVGEM was hinting at this....the 12Z now has it in the extreme BOC but the 18Z NAM has it over land for the most part....I am just glad the NAVGEM saw this....

[tailgater]

I'm pretty sure this wave will develop into a TC. That is in the EPAC

[Hurricaneman]

I'm pretty sure this wave will develop into a TC. That is in the EPAC

Thats exactly what the GFS does

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2013


TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N82W TO 11N81W
MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS MOVING BENEATH THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 12N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 75W-84W
INCLUDING JAMAICA.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 23 2013

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N83W TO 17N85W TO 22N85W MOVING W
AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN BROAD LOW-LEVEL...SURFACE TO
700 MB...TROUGHING LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING MAXIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 80W-87W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-23N BETWEEN 79W-88W.

[cycloneye]

10%-10%. NAVGEM saw this.

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE WHILE THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY DUE TO ITS
PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER S GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM 22N88W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 20N89W TO EL SALVADOR
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF
MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AND GULF
OF MEXICO AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
WAVE REMAINS MOVING BENEATH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND WITHIN 30/45 NM ALONG COAST OF THE YUCATAN BETWEEN
87W-92W.