Northern Gulf

#181 Postby **Frank P** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 2:37 pm

Not moving very much if at all, almost looks stationary the last hour or so looking at the vis loops... very slow mover could perhaps enhance development chances regardless of its close proximity to land as the majority of it remains mostly over the open waters...

RainbowAppleJackDash · #182 Postby **RainbowAppleJackDash** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 2:39 pm

Ummm... reminds me of le Berto of 2007, but weaker!

#183 Postby **Frank P** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 2:45 pm

A MLC looks to me to be about 28.5n and 89.0, Kind of just sitting there on the radar loops... my unprofessional opinion only...

hurricanekid416 · #184 Postby **hurricanekid416** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 2:45 pm

I hope it'll give some rain to Texas I heard that it's really dry out there

ROCK · #185 Postby **ROCK** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 2:51 pm

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

looks interesting...29.95 NE winds 3knts....might be right in the eye....

#186 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 2:54 pm

Quite a few obs offshore in and near the disturbance. So far, no LLC and no significant pressure falls. Pressures ARE falling very slowly across the entire northern Gulf since yesterday as high pressure to the north weakens a bit, but not due to a developing LLC. Interesting that the models move the low-level vorticity inland near Galveston by 18Z tomorrow and the mid-level vorticity lags by 24-30 hrs.

Here's a plot of surface obs & satellite. As you can see, no evidence of any LLC, and no eye yet, Rock. ;-)

#187 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 2:57 pm

I believe the models are wrong because this is in no hurry to go anywhere right now. IMO

wxman57 wrote:Quite a few obs offshore in and near the disturbance. So far, no LLC and no significant pressure falls. Pressures ARE falling very slowly across the entire northern Gulf since yesterday as high pressure to the north weakens a bit, but not due to a developing LLC. Interesting that the models move the low-level vorticity inland near Galveston by 18Z tomorrow and the mid-level vorticity lags by 24-30 hrs.

Here's a plot of surface obs & satellite. As you can see, no evidence of any LLC, and no eye yet, Rock.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/Dist2.gif

PauleinHouston · #188 Postby **PauleinHouston** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 2:58 pm

CIMMS has this as an invest (HS26L) already...http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

RAMMB has a floater on it as well...think NHC might have a number for it shortly....http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp

Latest Vis floater: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

PTrackerLA · #189 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 2:58 pm

WXman think we'll get some healthy rains out of this in south central LA? Unfortunately this has to be moving through on a Saturday :roll:

.

#190 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 2:59 pm

ROCK wrote:http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

looks interesting...29.95 NE winds 3knts....might be right in the eye....

Easy fella ... e-a-s-y. Don't go boarding up your windows just yet! :lol:

I want to know what the "trusty" NOGAPS has to say about this.

#191 Postby **NDG** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 3:00 pm

It looks great on satellite but not one report of a westerly wind yet out of all of the oil platforms on the south and quadrant of the MLC, I doubt we are going to see much organization out of this today.

ROCK · #192 Postby **ROCK** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 3:04 pm

Portastorm wrote:
ROCK wrote:http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

looks interesting...29.95 NE winds 3knts....might be right in the eye....

Easy fella ... e-a-s-y. Don't go boarding up your windows just yet!

I want to know what the "trusty" NOGAPS has to say about this.

..yeah I looked at every freakin buoy out there and no west winds...pressure falls all over the place...the buoy that I really want is not reporting.

#193 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 3:08 pm

Patience.

ROCK wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
ROCK wrote:http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

looks interesting...29.95 NE winds 3knts....might be right in the eye....

Easy fella ... e-a-s-y. Don't go boarding up your windows just yet!

I want to know what the "trusty" NOGAPS has to say about this.

..yeah I looked at every freakin buoy out there and no west winds...pressure falls all over the place...the buoy that I really want is not reporting.

#194 Postby **USTropics** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 3:10 pm

Portastorm wrote:
ROCK wrote:http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

looks interesting...29.95 NE winds 3knts....might be right in the eye....

Easy fella ... e-a-s-y. Don't go boarding up your windows just yet!

I want to know what the "trusty" NOGAPS has to say about this.

Here it is. What weak vorticity there is at 850mb is stretched and looks to come ashore near the Texas/Mexico border.

On a side, got to love the new NOGAPS back up to it's old tricks with a phantom system developing over land and heading to the BOC.

#195 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 3:10 pm

Give it overnight and if the current trends hold this would likely become a TC tomorrow. Don't know how the track might change though if a TC were to form, it could move more NW.

#196 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 3:12 pm

Well, it is ROCK's favorite tropical weather model now. I was just curious. :wink:

Regardless of development, it's probably no secret that the entire state of Texas is cheering this disturbance on to grow healthy and happy and rain itself out on our state.

#197 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 3:12 pm

It would have to move SSW for that to pan out. IMO :roll:

USTropics wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
ROCK wrote:http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

looks interesting...29.95 NE winds 3knts....might be right in the eye....

Easy fella ... e-a-s-y. Don't go boarding up your windows just yet!

I want to know what the "trusty" NOGAPS has to say about this.

Here it is. What weak vorticity there is at 850mb is stretched and looks to come ashore near the Texas/Mexico border.

On a side, got to love the new NOGAPS back up to it's old tricks with a phantom system developing over land and heading to the BOC.

#198 Postby **USTropics** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 3:15 pm

Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

Well, it is ROCK's favorite tropical weather model now. I was just curious.

Regardless of development, it's probably no secret that the entire state of Texas is cheering this disturbance on to grow healthy and happy and rain itself out on our state.

Agreed, hope you guys do get some rain. It was gut wrenching to watch 92L being that close to the Texas coast but all the convection being streamlined by the cold front north towards the northern GOM states/Florida.

Sanibel · #199 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 3:24 pm

Starting to come together in my opinion. If it tracks north it will run out of water.

The west Caribbean wave looks like it wants to form too. Maybe the season's about to break?

#200 Postby **thetruesms** » Fri Aug 23, 2013 3:25 pm

PauleinHouston wrote:CIMMS has this as an invest (HS26L) already...http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

RAMMB has a floater on it as well...think NHC might have a number for it shortly....http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp

Latest Vis floater: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

The numbering tells you that it is not an actual "Invest", which are operationally numbered from 90-99, but part of the "pouch" designation that came out of the PREDICT field project a couple years ago (http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013.html). The UW site is just using some imprecise terminology.

I actually prefer the pouch idea to track things, as it actually has a physical meaning, rather than the somewhat arbitrary Invest tag, which may or may not actually indicate any real potential for development.

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