TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Even if an El Niño does not occur (which seems unlikely IMO) we still should only expect below-average activity basically similar to last year, maybe even worse.
The oncoming El Niño should help try to recharge the atmosphere when it comes to all the vertical stability, and unfavorable conditions in place all throughout the Atlantic at the present time, and if an El Niño does occur and can manage to do all of that than the 2015 hurricane season could be rather interesting one.
After all we are well overdue for an El Niño event so I would not count on this event busting like 2012.
Most of the first two paragraphs were stated mid-last year. The bolded part I really don't get, why would anyone who is sane count on this El Nino busting? I will say if no El Nino forms, that would be wonderful because it would be the greatest forecast mishap in meteorological history which would make the weather "interesting" therein. The weather has been a tad boring on the tropical side and 2 majors in the Epac doesn't ring my chimes from a quota standpoint.
Ntxw wrote:Tweet from Eric Blake stated that vertical wind shear in the western Atlantic (minus subtropics as expected) was the second highest on record for the same period from about mid May to mid June, behind 2009. So it was not your typical wind shear environment for the time of year across the gulf, Carib, and MDR. The GFS has been very wrong weakening these winds during the same period within it's 7-10 day range day after day. One area remained normal to below normal and that was off the SE US coast and eastward (subtropics).
Crazy, great signal for the snorefest. My numbers are looking solid so far. I don't think anything will happen in June as a result and July, I think that's a pass too.
wxman57 wrote:SSTs are quite a bit below normal across the Gulf, Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic. The only region with above normal SSTs is east of the Bahamas and from offshore Hatteras, NC to New England. Euro is still forecasting ACE 60% of normal.
Just ugly.
SFLcane wrote:ninel conde wrote:10 sounds a bit high to me. i can see aug/sept with 3 named storms total and an early end to the season after that.
How about 0 storms?
![Rolling Eyes :roll:](./images/smilies/icon_rolleyes.gif)
Careful, we were mocking him last season when he was screaming bust over and over and then we know the rest.
hurricanes1234 wrote:60-70 knots?!! That's a lot of shear!!! Maybe the shear is what we might be talking about for most of this season rather than
tropical cyclones?
![Surprised :eek:](./images/smilies/icon_eek.gif)
Don't you mean dry air? IMO this Atlantic hurricane season was never about the TCs as dumb as that may sound, but how fail worthy it is to what extent.