Tropical Wave east of Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 96L)

[Yellow Evan]

alienstorm,

Agree with you on this area. I noticed it yesterday and think the NHC will X it today.

It already is X'ed. This is the 10/30 thing I thought.

[gatorcane]

Yellow Evan this is the area is east of where NHC has the X being discussed in this thread: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116604. If current area NHC has an X does not develop, then kudos to the GFS for not latching onto this as all of the other models have been showing some development.

Looking at the latest SAT image of this wave, it looks very weak and the area to the east is looking better.

By the way the latest GFS develops neither area and that is another possibility.

[gatorcane]

12Z GEM combines this system with the area to the east and has a strong Caribbean cruiser down to 985MB with landfall into the Yucatan. Ah good thing it's the GEM!

[blp]

Well the Navgem is all in with both waves. The CMC has gone strong with a Carribean cruiser. Not the best models but still interesting.

Navgem


CMC

[cycloneye]

As expected.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a weak and elongated area of low
pressure centered about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
remains limited and disorganized. Environmental conditions have
become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[gatorcane]

Looks like another one is "biting the dust" - PUN INTENDED!

[northjaxpro]

And the beat goes on... Nothing will develop out there for the time being folks.

[NDG]

P18L I guess is the one to watch over the next few days.

[ouragans]

See you next year, guys

[floridasun78]

not good idea say see you next year

[TheStormExpert]

not good idea say see you next year

I don't see why not? Nothing is going to get going at this point. Everything since Bertha has busted!

[floridasun78]

not good idea say see you next year

I don't see why not? Nothing is going to get going at this point. Everything since Bertha has busted!

fat lady not sing yet i been watching tropical snice i was 15 i seen supprise of tropical if you want that way it ok but SEASON NOT OVER YET REMEMBER THAT!!!!!!!

[gatorcane]

There is a blowup of convection underway with this wave now and it's DMIN...let's see if it can persist and expand.

[abajan]

There is a blowup of convection underway with this wave now and it's DMIN...let's see if it can persist and expand.

http://i58.tinypic.com/15pphko.jpg

Yep. 12N 44W has some pretty intense stuff.

[Steve820]

This season is looking like a pathetic one, just like last year, but at least it has some stronger storms. This is just yet another busting AOI. I can hardly wait for the 2015 Atlantic season to come already

[stormlover2013]

Lol we still have a Long way to go, all it takes is one major storm

[Hammy]

I stand by my 2002 comparison. Two weak storms at the beginning of the month, then barely so much as clouds for the rest of the time until the last few days of the month, but activity picked up enough to have a few strong storms before El Nino kicked in fully in October. And I'm not giving any credibility to the GFS beyond 192 hours, as it's just as likely to have storms show up that don't actually form as it is to show nothing at all when something actually forms, as it did with this year's two hurricanes that far out. Now is not always an indicator of later otherwise the weather would be static and never change.

(edit: please move this to 'thoughts on rest of season' topic as I thought I was posting there..)

[cycloneye]

Shower activity associated with a weak and elongated area of low
pressure centered about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are not expected to
be favorable for significant development over the next few days
while the system moves to the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM still quite bullish. I think it is this wave east of the Lesser Antilles:

180 hours:

[cycloneye]

This is what I call a complete discussion,this one made tonight by the San Juan NWS about this area.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED FASTER AND
WEAKER WITH ELONGATED LOW PRES OVER THE CNTRL ATLC. WHILE TC
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AS IT MOVES WWD OR WNWD
ACROSS THE ATLC AND ERN CARIB SEA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. USING
ECMWF...GEFS ENSEMBLE PROBALISITIC GUIDANCE AND NHC/WPC GUIDANCE
WOULD EXPECT FOR A WEAK LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA
FRI-FRI NIGHT. GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
PR THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT POSSIBLY HEAVIER THAN WHAT WE SAW WITH
BERTHA AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING SLOWER THAN BERTHA DID. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT THE RAINS COULD STAY SOUTH OF PR AS
SUGGESTED BY GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BUT USING AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF 20 SOLUTIONS WITH A
DIFFERENT SET OF INITIAL CONDITIONS WOULD PUT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OVER PR. THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE TODAY WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND TRACK IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY AND
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS TRENDED WETTER FOR PR BUT WITH AN EARLIER
ONSET OF HEAVY RAINS NOW.