2015 Global model runs discussion

[Steve]

Wondering if the MJO will be telegraphing some of the Atlantic systems this year. Apparently pulses that activated the WPAC and EPAC in succession then helped spawn Ana and Bill in the Atlantic Basin. Joe Bastardi had something about that on a video a few weeks ago, and I think I read that from somewhere else and also from someone on here. I know the MJO is in Phase 7 and climbing toward the edge of the graph currently which probably indicates some type of amplitude or blocking at the Jetstream levels. 12z GFS shows a new EPAC system coming off of Mexico (possibly powerful) but also has a system cutting across the Gulf of Mexico and hitting the Central Texas coast from the ESE while the other system is cranking. Since my GFS links don't run that far South into Southwestern Mexico, I can't tell if it sort of sits or ambles around down off the Riviera for a few days before heading out W/WNW into the Pacific before the Western Caribbean energy makes its way into the Gulf or not. But the 15th-20th of July looks like at least a chance even though what it's showing now is most likely just a phantom model storm. However, since there are 3 areas in the WPAC and a clearly progged system in the EPAC, it well could be a telegraph signal. I'd also note that about 18-19 days prior to Bill, GFS was trying to bring something "organized" into the SE TX/SW LA Coasts. So it's not unprecedented, and since the GFS fixes are brand new and obviously too new for us to know how it's handling them in this particular type of year, I thought it was worth a mention.

[TexasF6]

Anyone notice the low pressure lifting from the Yucatan? Any model run support in this afternoon's suites?

[emeraldislenc]

any thoughts about the thunderstorms moving off the coast of Africa?

[GeneratorPower]

any thoughts about the thunderstorms moving off the coast of Africa?

It's a decent group of thunderstorms. IIRC some of the models were advertising development of some kind off this cluster, but this was in the longer ranges and not that helpful. Climatologically speaking, it would be kind of early to see something form off Africa this early in the season. It happened once a couple years ago that I remember, in June.

[gatorcane]

The cluster of storms is part of a wave that looked very impressive last week when it was over East-Central Africa. See my post above. The GFS model looks to develop a low from this area near the Cape Verde islands but because of the hostile conditions across the MDR between the Leewards and Africa, ends up dissipating this low. Give it another 5-6 weeks. Conditions should be better out there.

[ninel conde]

The cluster of storms is part of a wave that looked very impressive last week when it was over East-Central Africa. See my post above. The GFS model looks to develop a low from this area near the Cape Verde islands but because of the hostile conditions across the MDR between the Leewards and Africa, ends up dissipating this low. Give it another 5-6 weeks. Conditions should be better out there.

Most likely they will be worse.

[SFLcane]

The cluster of storms is part of a wave that looked very impressive last week when it was over East-Central Africa. See my post above. The GFS model looks to develop a low from this area near the Cape Verde islands but because of the hostile conditions across the MDR between the Leewards and Africa, ends up dissipating this low. Give it another 5-6 weeks. Conditions should be better out there.

Most likely they will be worse.

We get it...even during the strongest of el ninos hurricanes still develope.. Give it a few weeks.

[Siker]

The cluster of storms is part of a wave that looked very impressive last week when it was over East-Central Africa. See my post above. The GFS model looks to develop a low from this area near the Cape Verde islands but because of the hostile conditions across the MDR between the Leewards and Africa, ends up dissipating this low. Give it another 5-6 weeks. Conditions should be better out there.

Most likely they will be worse.

There is no reasoning behind predicting conditions to be worse near climatological peak than they are now. Conditions will continue to be bad, yes, but even in a strengthening Niño shear is unlikely to remain at the record level it is right now.

[Yellow Evan]

The cluster of storms is part of a wave that looked very impressive last week when it was over East-Central Africa. See my post above. The GFS model looks to develop a low from this area near the Cape Verde islands but because of the hostile conditions across the MDR between the Leewards and Africa, ends up dissipating this low. Give it another 5-6 weeks. Conditions should be better out there.

Not good enough for a system to form IMO.

[gatorcane]

Last couple of runs of the GFS is showing a marked drop in shear across the Caribbean starting days 8-10. We will see.

[WPBWeather]

Last couple of runs of the GFS is showing a marked drop in shear across the Caribbean starting days 8-10. We will see.

Why others on this comment stream seem to think shear is a permanent feature is puzzling. Just on its face, the idea that raging torrents in the Pacific will continue without Atlantic activity is just silly. There are always connections that can change the climate set up very quickly.

[JonathanBelles]

Current analysis of the northern hemisphere tropics and a look at the next 9-10 days:
http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/07/06/th ... -out-west/

[ninel conde]

Last couple of runs of the GFS is showing a marked drop in shear across the Caribbean starting days 8-10. We will see.

Why others on this comment stream seem to think shear is a permanent feature is puzzling. Just on its face, the idea that raging torrents in the Pacific will continue without Atlantic activity is just silly. There are always connections that can change the climate set up very quickly.

Its been fairly permanent for a few years now. In STRONG EL NINO, not to mention all the other horrid conditions, aug/sept are usually rather dead.

[Yellow Evan]

Last couple of runs of the GFS is showing a marked drop in shear across the Caribbean starting days 8-10. We will see.

Why others on this comment stream seem to think shear is a permanent feature is puzzling. Just on its face, the idea that raging torrents in the Pacific will continue without Atlantic activity is just silly. There are always connections that can change the climate set up very quickly.

It can for a brief period, but with the El Nino base state, I have my doubt.

GFS might be bringing MJO into the region, and it sometimes propagates the MJO too fast. Hence, the projected decline in shear.

[tolakram]

NHC has a good article in their blog Inside the Eye.

The Ups and Downs of Predicting Tropical Cyclone Formation: The Role of Atmospheric Waves
https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2015/06/25/the-ups-and-downs-of-predicting-tropical-cyclone-formation-the-role-of-atmospheric-waves/

[emeraldislenc]

More large thunderstorms are going to be rolling off the coast of Africa in a few days. I know it is early for the Cape Verde storms and the conditions are not favorable but these storms are very impressive looking!

[boca]

I think the only thing we will be tracking are upper level lows in the Atlantic.

[ninel conde]

I think the only thing we will be tracking are upper level lows in the Atlantic.

Yep. And dust, and shear.

[Bocadude85]

I think the only thing we will be tracking are upper level lows in the Atlantic.

Yep. And dust, and shear.

You both do realize that we have already had two systems this year correct? And that even 1997 featured three hurricanes with one being a major hurricane. Lets see what August, September and October bring before we start with the season cancel nonsense. If we have not had anymore systems by the end of October then I agree the season will be a dud. But until then lets sit back and see what happens.

[stormlover2013]

yeah season is not over, but condition aren't to good in the Atlantic, I could see a couple more GOM storms and some of the east coast and could see some like ANA, but with how the pattern is right now Florida panhandle to mexico look is about the best places to get hit and then Georgia all the way up to boston, pattern just don't favor florida or Atlantic storms and also cape verde storms could be notta