Posible GOM development?

[ronjon]

Looks like the low pressure is already moving inland based on SAT.

[lovingseason2013]

Regardless of whether or not it becomes classified as a TD or a highly-sheared TS, the effects will be the same across the Gulf and eventually into the Gulf Coast - squalls and winds of 25-35 mph, mostly east of the low center.

Agreed. NAM was spinning up a secondary vortex around the greater area of surface low pressure that was what ended up hammering Mobile Bay. This coincided with the GFS which showed that second vortex sort of dumping at landfall. Not sure if this will be a multiple vortex system, possibly. It could also be subtropical based on all the shear. Again, for those of you hammering shear, you don't get an STS in the Gulf in the Fall without it. Nothing city-destroying or anything, but there could be some flooding and power outages.

lovingseason,

I'm assuming you are in/near Pensacola with the 24 in 24 (some areas had way more than that). Several people lost their homes and possessions in that flooding. Sure, most people survived. But there was a lot more property damage than you might realize. Last week we dealt with gutting a moldy house that had been idle since that event. Don't downplay that kind of rain, flash flooding and such. It's not as major of an issue where the soils are sandy, but deluges like that have been known to drown people and cause roof failures, downed trees and such. Hell, the roadway washed out on Fairfield Drive next to the bridge over Bayou Grande. JMO

I was in the heart of it photographing for CNN and I live Downtown. That was 24 in 24, this will be 6 at most.

[Steve]

Our place is 67' above sea level in NE Pensacola/Brent area. The streets don't even flood there, but all the downstairs units did in that event. Mine is upstairs (I have a downstairs garage). Garage got water and stuff floated, but because it's an end unit with 8" of concrete; there was no sheetrock damage. And I realize you guys can handle 6 inches. It's more "tropical storm party" weather. But a lot of people that didn't have flood insurance lost a lot of money and real property over that particular event. We have dealt with 4 issues on 4 or 5 properties I look after over there from that event. I only been paying attention to what I've been dealing with, so I don't know the level of damage around the city or how many homes had issues from that rain event. Guess is it would be in the hundreds if not the thousands?

[N2FSU]

12z Euro is out:

+48hr

[N2FSU]

+72hr

[N2FSU]

+96hr

[N2FSU]

+120hr

[N2FSU]

+144hr

[Steve]

N2FSU,

Can you get a rainfall estimate map from wherever you run that version of the ECMWF through 144?

[Weatherwatcher98]

Not buying that run. Look at all the lows....

[N2FSU]

N2FSU,

Can you get a rainfall estimate map from wherever you run that version of the ECMWF through 144?

I could only get it off the GFS, not the Euro.
This is total accumulated through 144hr.

[SETXWXLADY]

This might help explain what we're seeing on the models. Seems to be a lot going on in the gulf coming up.

WPC Model Diagnostic discussion

UPPER LOW DROPPING THROUGH TX
SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST GULF
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: CANADIAN/NAM/ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: BY DEFAULT/SEE NHC OUTLOOKS

WHILE THE GUIDANCE IS AGREEABLE ALOFT, THEIR SURFACE LOW HANDLING
IN THE GULF IS QUITE DIFFERENT. THE 12Z UKMET MERGES THIS WITH
THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND ACCELERATES AHEAD OF THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE -- USUAL BIASES FOR THE UKMET. THE 17Z
CONFERENCE CALL WITH NHC SUPPORTED A SOLUTION RESEMBLING A
COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z CANADIAN/12Z NAM/12Z ECMWF, WHICH IS
PREFERRED BY DEFAULT.


POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS
CONFIDENCE: BY DEFAULT/SEE NHC OUTLOOKS

WHILE NHC AT 18Z GAVE THE SYSTEM A 20% CHANCE OF
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS, THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/POSSIBLE
MONSOON DEPRESSION TO MOVE UP FROM CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A SHEARED SYSTEM DUE TO THE UPPER
LOW IN PROXIMITY TO ITS EAST. THE GUIDANCE THAT BEST FITS THE
NHC/WPC POINTS FROM 17Z TODAY WOULD BE THE 12Z GFS, WHICH IS
PREFERRED BY DEFAULT. SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS FOR MORE ON ITS POTENTIAL AS A TROPICAL/ SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE.

[LarryWx]

N2FSU,

Can you get a rainfall estimate map from wherever you run that version of the ECMWF through 144?

Are you looking for a particular location/ I can't post the map but it shows 3" for Pensacola.

[SETXWXLADY]

Where WPC shows lows

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayf ... _conus.gif

[Steve]

N2FSU,

Can you get a rainfall estimate map from wherever you run that version of the ECMWF through 144?

Are you looking for a particular location/ I can't post the map but it shows 3" for Pensacola.

Nah, that's cool. I had seen the GFS and was wondering if the ecmwf had a map showing ptot through the 144 hour mark for the gulf. I rarely look at the Euro beyond surface and don't have great access to any of its derived products.

[ronjon]

12z NAVGEM into Florida panhandle as moderate tropical storm - yes I know its the NAVGEM.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Not even looking at Models until "something" is there. With all due respect Models have struggled to say the least this season.

[northjaxpro]

Not even looking at Models until "something" is there. With all due respect Models have struggled to say the least this season.

I am totally with you about this. I still beleivr that overall conditions will not allow for a mature healthy tropical cyclone next week. It will be a sheared, lopsided system at best should development occurs. The models have struggled big time this season with the hostile conditions with shear throughout the North Atlantic basin thanks to the strong El Nino this season.

[NDG]

Wow, just looked at the TPW map, there's a lot of tropical moisture over the western Atlantic basin, that UL trough that will be digging down west of the lower MS River valley will be wringing out the tropical moisture east of the MS River Valley. Those of you in the SE US who have been complaining about a dry summer your wish for rains will come through.

[N2FSU]

N2FSU,

Can you get a rainfall estimate map from wherever you run that version of the ECMWF through 144?

Are you looking for a particular location/ I can't post the map but it shows 3" for Pensacola.

Nah, that's cool. I had seen the GFS and was wondering if the ecmwf had a map showing ptot through the 144 hour mark for the gulf. I rarely look at the Euro beyond surface and don't have great access to any of its derived products.

Hey Steve, ok yeh I couldn't get my hands on that for the ECMWF.