2016 ACE: ATL - 134.7 - EPAC - 191.9 - WPAC - 258.2125

[1900hurricane]

Im interested to see if we can get past the letter M, and still have an ACE below 60 for the year.

That's actually what happened in 2013. 2007 also almost pulled that off. Storms not named Dean or Felix were not big ACE contributors that year.

Did 2013 even reach 30?

I calculated an ACE of 32.4675*10^4 kt^2, so barely. PDI was even more abysmal that year, at 16.629625*10^6 kt^3. 2013 actually had more tropical storm days than 2007 (and 2009), but the storm intensities were so low that year that they could hardly produce any ACE or PDI.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicsWatch/status/778259830674903040

[dexterlabio]

WPAC is one Cat4-5 away from overtaking the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

WPAC is one Cat4-5 away from overtaking the EPAC.

However,EPAC may have one to two systems in the next couple of weeks that may fend off the WPAC rise caused by future Megi.

[Alyono]

Atlantic ACE should get a big bump over the next couple of weeks

[Kazmit]

Atlantic ACE should get a big bump over the next couple of weeks

Future major hurricane Matthew is going to make sure that happens (assuming it generally follows what the models are showing).

[galaxy401]

This Atlantic season does beat 2009 at least.

[euro6208]

WPAC only 13.4576 away from taking the lead thanks to Megi. Here comes October.

The beginning of this month saw a deficit of 57.0875 and even went as high as 65.8595 on the 8th when the WPAC suddenly responded with many monster typhoons including one peaking at 165 knots.

Incredible.

[Alyono]

by the end of next week, the Atlantic will have significantly closed the gap

[cycloneye]

Updated as of 15z.The big question is how much ACE Matthew will get and help the North Atlantic rise a lot.

[Ntxw]

Mathew if it is a major+ will probably get 15-20 units depending on speed. Might be 20-25 if it can hold on after Cuba. That would get the Atlantic near seasonal avg by early October as normal now is around 80 units.

[Alyono]

Updated as of 15z.The big question is how much ACE Matthew will get and help the North Atlantic rise a lot.

How in the world did the Atlantic ACE go up by more than a point since yesterday? There has been .25 points as of the 15Z advisory. Will be up to .5 point as of 21Z

[Alyono]

Mathew if it is a major+ will probably get 15-20 units depending on speed. Might be 20-25 if it can hold on after Cuba. That would get the Atlantic near seasonal avg by early October as normal now is around 80 units.

closer to 50-60 points. This is going to be around for a good long while

[cycloneye]

Updated as of 15z.The big question is how much ACE Matthew will get and help the North Atlantic rise a lot.

How in the world did the Atlantic ACE go up by more than a point since yesterday? There has been .25 points as of the 15Z advisory. Will be up to .5 point as of 21Z

I don't know. Maue can answer.

http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php

[1900hurricane]

Maue's numbers creep up for reasons I can't explain. His WPac numbers are well above mine, which is at 149.7675*10^4 kt^2 as of 18Z today.

[cycloneye]

21z update is up.

[1900hurricane]

Mathew if it is a major+ will probably get 15-20 units depending on speed. Might be 20-25 if it can hold on after Cuba. That would get the Atlantic near seasonal avg by early October as normal now is around 80 units.

closer to 50-60 points. This is going to be around for a good long while

Matthew could output quite a bit of of ACE, but I doubt it will be able to output more than 40 units of ACE. Every Atlantic Hurricane that has eclipsed 40 units that I am aware of has been of Cape Verde origin. 50 units of ACE is equivalent to a 125 kt storm existing in a steady state for eight days.

[Ntxw]

I would've guessed 35-40 as the upper end like a Hazel with 41 if it got that strong. Had this taken a track like Ivan through the entire Carib and up the gulf maybe more, but Cuba depending and the shorter track might cut down some. The question for more is what it is after Cuba and how long

[Alyono]

Mathew if it is a major+ will probably get 15-20 units depending on speed. Might be 20-25 if it can hold on after Cuba. That would get the Atlantic near seasonal avg by early October as normal now is around 80 units.

closer to 50-60 points. This is going to be around for a good long while

Matthew could output quite a bit of of ACE, but I doubt it will be able to output more than 40 units of ACE. Every Atlantic Hurricane that has eclipsed 40 units that I am aware of has been of Cape Verde origin. 50 units of ACE is equivalent to a 125 kt storm existing in a steady state for eight days.

My thinking was that Gonzalo and Joaquin produced 25-30 units and they were around for about a week. This one will be around for 10-12 days and it should be very intense for most of them

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/781479291657650176