Western Caribbean Area of Interest: (Is INVEST 90L)

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS ensemble mean continues to suggest Florida peninsula. They couldn’t be more different than the ECMWF and its ensemble mean. Regardless of development, watching the Euro vs GFS on this is fun to watch:

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 52012&fh=6

[northjaxpro]

Well, it is interesting with regards to the wide discrepancy.compared to the EURO and subsequent ensembles.

This is the first run from GFS in quite some time which at least shows the potential center being in the extreme SE GOM, as opposed to it being east of Florida in its runs the past couple of days. It is not much of a shift west (left), but a very subtle one nonetheless.

We will see if this 12Z GFS run starts a trend of it finally caving to the EURO solution of traversing the potential cyclone in the GOM.

[cycloneye]

First mention of a low.

[gatorcane]

12Z EC has this near LA coast at 144 hours so has sped things up and not budging on NE track into FL peninsula the GFS insists on.

[tailgater]

One thing I've noticed over the years is that the EC does poorly in a high-shear environment. It tends to move the disturbance/storm with the lower-level flow. Think Debby of 2012 in the central Gulf. EC predicted hurricane into Texas, while the GFS predicted sheared weak TS into the FL Peninsula. Strong SW-WSW shear drove all convection ENE into Florida, along with a weak center. Look at the shear forecast for later this week (below). 40-50 kts of shear coming from the WSW-SW. EC ensembles are north to western FL Panhandle, while the GFS ensembles all take it to southern Florida. I'd go with the GFS here.

Exactly. Another great local example of this occurring is the October 9, 2011 "no name storm". I got burned siding with the EC (surface low beneath the H50 low in the SE GOMEX) over the GFS (surface low forming off the Florida east coast, which was your call) in that case. We both know what happened there - 93L.

I learned something about the EC's bias that day, which is why I made my post early yesterday evening.

So yall are probably correct but this is what 4 straight runs of the Euro into the Northern gulf coast.

[cycloneye]

Is in the same place at 192 hours?

[Dean4Storms]

12z ECM into LA just SW of New Orleans at 156hr at 998mb..... Showing some wind gusts well out east of center to just over 50mph. This would either be a Sub or purely Tropical Storm but maybe sustained winds around 40mph.

[cycloneye]

Is in the same place at 192 hours?

In fact retograding to the SW off coast at 216 hours.

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, out to 192 hours still just WSW of New Orleans and at 999mb. The deluge is on for NO!

[Dean4Storms]

At 210 hrs nearly 16-18 inches of rain in the NO area

[cycloneye]

At 240 hours.

[Alyono]

so the EC looks like it wants to produce a Harvey-like flood...

4 days in basically the same place?

[Dean4Storms]

At 240hr.....2nd landfall just east of the TX/LA border at 997mb.... ECM with gusts to the East approaching 60mph.

[stormlover2013]

Icon model almost has same thing https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 52012&fh=6

[PTrackerLA]

so the EC looks like it wants to produce a Harvey-like flood...

4 days in basically the same place?

It's been an extremely dry and hot (record heat) past month here but that Euro run looks like it would get really ugly. Hopefully we can get some elevated rain chances at the very least.

[sphelps8681]

That's all we need down here!!

[sphelps8681]

so the EC looks like it wants to produce a Harvey-like flood...

4 days in basically the same place?

We don't need that. Many people still rebuilding from Harvey. Ugh!!

[JSDS]

Agreed! People are still rebuilding here from the no name storm of 2016

[stormlover2013]

Models have been so inconsistent so still have time