Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf/Texas

[setxweathergal64]

What makes one storm/wave/blob over another get and keep the gfs's reputation from sinking? It was doing crazy weird things with 91L and no one believed it. Does everyone who likes a certain model just get amnesia and go with the flow.☺

[lrak]

What makes one storm/wave/blob over another get and keep the gfs's reputation from sinking? It was doing crazy weird things with 91L and no one believed it. Does everyone who worships a certain model just get amnesia and go with the flow.☺

Can you worship computers now?

[setxweathergal64]

What makes one storm/wave/blob over another get and keep the gfs's reputation from sinking? It was doing crazy weird things with 91L and no one believed it. Does everyone who worships a certain model just get amnesia and go with the flow.☺

Can you worship computers now?

I changed my wording. But was really being kind of serious. Makes me not want to believe one model over another. I was wondering how they stay reputable when they are so off sometimes.

[lrak]

With my basic background I see two upper level high pressure systems and if one bucks out it will be the SE TX coast or NE Mex and S TX coast. Who knows after that? Computers they are invaluable and in a few more years I hope "they" will be more accurate?

[MGC]

Lots of outflow boundaries. I'd say chances are less than 10%.....MGC

[tolakram]

A single model, even the euro, is never 100% correct. Model bashing and model hugging is silly and re-enforces the fact many here don't know how to correctly utilize the models as tools. Sorry, that was a little rough, but I think it's an accurate statement.

[davidiowx]

Just a gigantic mess out in the Gulf is you ask me.. nothing looks remotely close to organizing at this time.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a surface trough over the southern Gulf of Mexico
and an upper-level low over the western Gulf of Mexico. Surface
observations and high-resolution wind data indicate that a surface
circulation does not exist, but strong winds are occuring to the
northeast of the trough. Environmental conditions are not expected
to support significant development, however, heavy rains and gusty
winds are likely to spread across the central Gulf of Mexico tonight
and will reach portions of the Texas and southwestern Louisiana
coasts on Sunday. For more details on this system please see
products issued by your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Haris]

A single model, even the euro, is never 100% correct. Model bashing and model hugging is silly and re-enforces the fact many here don't know how to correctly utilize the models as tools. Sorry, that was a little rough, but I think it's an accurate statement.

Amen fella! I have posted about this multiple times on my twitter...

I do NOT believe in model comparisons and "a king" etc... Each model needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Each model wins, each loses. No model is better. I can point many flaws to each one.

My forecasts consists of ALL models regardless of performance and using ensembles as guides, to what camp is leaned on along with history etc...

Knowing biases of each also helps alot

[Clearcloudz]

WPC 7 day rainfall outlook keeping much of heavy rain totals in the gulf of mexico.

[davidiowx]

They sure are persistent on the gradient. The coast getting good rains while inland gets teased.

[cycloneye]

Very off topic=Tropical Storm Carlotta making a run to hurricane as it heads to Acapulco.

[psyclone]

Texas looks like it is in store for a tropical plume not unlike that which plagued Florida in May. Of course if the rain is needed it's not a plague but welcome...which was the case...at least initially a month ago over here. Here's to hoping this ends up a net positive.

[Clearcloudz]

New Convection starting to fire in the center of Gulf of Mexico.



 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1008154585511362560

[Nimbus]

Very off topic=Tropical Storm Carlotta making a run to hurricane as it heads to Acapulco.

The two systems have similar comma shaped structures but the tail of the gulf system pulling air north over Chichen Itza is starting to dry out. Big difference since the strong convection this morning.

[Steve]

Texas looks like it is in store for a tropical plume not unlike that which plagued Florida in May. Of course if the rain is needed it's not a plague but welcome...which was the case...at least initially a month ago over here. Here's to hoping this ends up a net positive.

Sugar Cane Express?
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[Haris]

tonights 0z models should provide a general consensus.


SHOULD***

[stormlover2013]

Yeah I am with u, should be interesting

[Clearcloudz]

HRRR model starting to show the disturbance 18 hours out from now.

[Clearcloudz]

Instead of paying attention to long range models, need to start looking at this in real time, models don't have a good handle on this in my respective opinion.



@crankywxguy