Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[gatorcane]

GFS similar idea to FV3 GFS just further north and weaker:

[Ken711]

CMC into the FL panhandle.

[gatorcane]

18z GFS ensembles look more enthusiastic:

[gatorcane]

FV3 GFS into South Florida again but weaker:

[ronjon]

18z NAVGEM continues on the development bandwagon.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018100118&fh=126

[gatorcane]

18z NAVGEM continues on the development bandwagon.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018100118&fh=126

How it ends:

[jlauderdal]

18z NAVGEM continues on the development bandwagon.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018100118&fh=126

How it ends:

Wxman 57 was ripping the navgem during florence fwiw

[stormlover2013]

It’s worse than the cmc

[Aric Dunn]

1. Surface observations and satellite-derived wind data indicate that
a broad area of low pressure has developed over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea a couple hundred miles north of Panama. Shower and
thunderstorm activity is currently limited, and unfavorable
upper-level winds are expected to inhibit development over the next
couple of days while the low drifts generally northward. By late
week and over the weekend, however, upper-level winds are forecast
to become a little more conducive for development when the system
will be moving northwestward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[StrongWind]

The NHC has it positioned in the mid-Atlantic:

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF consolidating vorticity off the NE coast of Jamaica at 144 hrs:

[USTropics]

The NHC has it positioned in the mid-Atlantic:

http://i68.tinypic.com/30ku7mp.png

NHC uses KML files to create the graphical output which utilizes lat/long as geocoords. Someone copied the .kml file for Leslie to quickly reproduce and forgot to update the coords

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF through Eastern Cuba and into the Bahamas at 192 hours:

[Aric Dunn]

oh boy.. the Euro doing the crazy thing now.. highly unlikely. especially that far out. but would be an interesting and exhausting forecast ..

[StrongWind]

The NHC has it positioned in the mid-Atlantic:

http://i68.tinypic.com/21o3uhl.png

NHC uses KML files to create the graphical output which utilizes lat/long as geocoords. Someone copied the .kml file for Leslie to quickly reproduce and forgot to update the coords

Either that or they moved Panama.

[StrongWind]

The NHC has it positioned in the mid-Atlantic:

http://i68.tinypic.com/21o3uhl.png

NHC uses KML files to create the graphical output which utilizes lat/long as geocoords. Someone copied the .kml file for Leslie to quickly reproduce and forgot to update the coords

Either that or they moved Panama.

Panama, and Disturbance 1, are back to where they should be:

[GCANE]

Looks like 06Z GFS initializes it in 48 hrs
15.2N 78.3W

[GCANE]

Full boil, burner on High

[GCANE]

Massive realignment of the jet.
Firing right on the shear axis.
Upper Divergence continues to improve.
Good opportunity to develop an anti-cyclone over the next day or so if the heavy convection continues.
May couple into Leslie for an outflow channel.
Good sign mid-level vort is developing.
Need to see convection continue to heat a core.
Vort eventually needs to work down to the surface.
Climo conducive with the hottest water in the Atlantic.

[GCANE]

CIRA High / Low Cloud and Snow showing expansion on the SW quad.
She's going.
I would expect an invest shortly.