2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[drezee]

That is one heck of a wave coming off Africa. It has the monsoon tail and a LLC per surface obs. If it was mid-August...the NHC wiuld be calling near 100% odds

Sierra Leone surface winds turned from W to S and SSE after passage

Ok...if this thing says below 11N until 45W...then why not? Dust is lower...SSTs warm enough...shear lessening...

[gatorcane]

That is one heck of a wave coming off Africa. It has the monsoon tail and a LLC per surface obs. If it was mid-August...the NHC wiuld be calling near 100% odds

Sierra Leone surface winds turned from W to S and SSE after passage

Ok...if this thing says below 11N until 45W...then why not? Dust is lower...SSTs warm enough...shear lessening...

Shear not so bad but the SAL looks to be too much for this wave which should strip it of significant convection over the next couple of days, typical for this time of year:

[KatDaddy]

And the time of year has arrived again. Tropic Watch has started across the Atlantic Basin. This is the time to make sure family, friends, and co-workers have a plan ready. Memories of Rita 2005 alway come flooding back......I was not ready and learned a life lesson which I carry forward thus my post this evening.

[drezee]

That is one heck of a wave coming off Africa. It has the monsoon tail and a LLC per surface obs. If it was mid-August...the NHC wiuld be calling near 100% odds

Sierra Leone surface winds turned from W to S and SSE after passage

Ok...if this thing says below 11N until 45W...then why not? Dust is lower...SSTs warm enough...shear lessening...

Shear not so bad but the SAL looks to be too much for this wave which should strip it of significant convection over the next couple of days, typical for this time of year:

https://i.postimg.cc/5NC6WJxd/gfs-mid-RH-eatl-13.png

As long as it stays low, the moisture will be there. How many times have we seen this play out? SAL and dry air on the doorstep but a system stays alive on that ITCZ feed...it might die...but if it stays low it wont be the SAL

[drezee]

Visibles tomorrow AM will be interesting

[NDG]

If and only if the latest Euro run was to be correct it shows the system dropping down to the GOM becoming a hurricane making landfall near Gulfport MS. Let’s take this as a grain of salt, the Euro has basically no other model support and has not been really that good past 4-5 days range with tropical systems, IMO.

[N2FSU]

0z Euro:

[TheStormExpert]

I’m really skeptical about the latest Euro run showing a hurricane hitting the North-Central Gulf Coast next week, for the last several runs it has been jumping all over the place with location and intensity, not to mention that no other model develops this. Heck, even the 00z EPS support is lackluster.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1147472289979482113

[Dean4Storms]

Yes, the ECM stands pretty much alone with the Gulf development this morning. I think all depends on how far offshore the boundary gets.

[NDG]

One thing that the GFS agrees with the Euro is that there will be an environment very good UL winds present across the northern GOM. We shall see how far south that disturbance drops.

[Siker]

00z UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 35.8N 70.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.07.2019 84 35.8N 70.5W 1010 34
0000UTC 10.07.2019 96 35.9N 66.5W 1006 40
1200UTC 10.07.2019 108 36.6N 59.5W 999 49
0000UTC 11.07.2019 120 39.4N 51.0W 986 59
1200UTC 11.07.2019 132 46.7N 45.0W 980 48
0000UTC 12.07.2019 144 49.2N 47.3W 973 45

[wxman57]

Though not all the models indicate surface development, they all have the same feature as the source. The models indicate an upper-level low over Georgia that drifts southward across northern Florida then loops clockwise over the NE Gulf before moving back inland between Mississippi and the western FL Panhandle. Models often incorrectly predict tropical development from upper-level lows, and they develop these tropical cyclones way too quickly. For now, I think it is looking like increased rain chances for the NE Gulf coast late next week. Slight chance of tropical development, but something to watch.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This will be an interesting field test for the new GFS as far as tropical cyclone genesis in the Atlantic goes.

[cycloneye]

This will be an interesting field test for the new GFS as far as tropical cyclone genesis in the Atlantic goes.

Also for ECMWF that was upgraded.

[stormlover2013]

Gfs showed it first and then euro came on board, the board and gfs dropped it and euro still has it but I mean models aren’t doing bad we know one thing for sure going to be good rains, we will have a good idea on Monday or Tuesday.

[gulf701]

Gulf and Bay Counties along with several inland counties in the Florida Panhandle are still working to recover from Michael. Our area stability is still weak and even a minor system may create setbacks for everyone. One would normally wish all the models would perform with credibility to provide good development and tracking data for the safety and well being for all, however, we sure hope the data is wrong and leads to no development. Based on my limited knowledge, this may be a year that the models will seriously challenged for accuracy.

[PSUHiker31]

The GFS did not *drop* it. It is clearly still there on model runs, just it is so far north in the Gulf that it has trouble organizing to the point that the Euro is showing.

This is all going to be very dependent on how far that boundary drops into the Gulf.

[psyclone]

WPC is depicting buckets of QPF over the northeastern Gulf and up off the southeast coast especially after day 5. No matter what happens some significant rain appears to be on tap for someone. It's going to be worth monitoring subsequent outlooks as the timeframe reels in.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

[chaser1]

I'm pretty sure the CMC (GEM) has been somewhat neutered since last year? Still, I think i'll just sit back and watch the CMC as the canary in this particular coal mine. Given it's general propensity for spurious ghost storms, I'd at least expect "it" to be sniffing out something if there were more then a remote chance of development.

It will be interesting to see if nothing materializes and it turns out that the bait which the EURO was biting on did end up being nothing more then some small mid to upper level "TUTT-like" feature or energy that it see's getting pinched off over the N.E. Gulf, as Wxman suggests. Looking at the latest 12Z GFS run, it's 500mb vorticity forecast maps for late in the week are suggesting broad cyclonic flow in the E. Gulf in conjunction with an increase in mid level vorticity stretching from the E. GOM, ENE'ward for several hundred miles. Even still, the latest GFS is only suggesting a very broad and north/south elongated cyclonic flow at 850mb with lowest surface pressures still over the Fla. panhandle area.