2020 TCRs
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1366
- Age: 24
- Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
- Location: Hong Kong
- Contact:
Re: 2020 TCRs
NHC seems to have provided a sneak peek for the remaining TCRs in a just-uploaded season summary table:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/2020_ ... _Table.pdf
- Eta is bumped up to 135kt, short of a category 5
- Iota is downgraded to 135kt, no longer a category 5
- Zeta remains 95kt, ie no MH
- Laura remains 130kt
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/2020_ ... _Table.pdf
- Eta is bumped up to 135kt, short of a category 5
- Iota is downgraded to 135kt, no longer a category 5
- Zeta remains 95kt, ie no MH
- Laura remains 130kt
4 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
- InfernoFlameCat
- Category 5
- Posts: 1966
- Age: 21
- Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
- Location: Buford, GA
Re: 2020 TCRs
Im going to flip out if Iota gets downgraded to Cat 4.
1 likes
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8931
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: 2020 TCRs
There is TOO much Recon evidence for Iota to be a CAT 5 . . .
1 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- AnnularCane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2656
- Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
- Location: Wytheville, VA
Re: 2020 TCRs
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Im going to flip out if Iota gets downgraded to Cat 4.
Get ready to flip out. But gee, why did they do that?
2 likes
"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
- GrayLancer18
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 88
- Joined: Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:45 pm
- Contact:
Re: 2020 TCRs
NotoSans wrote:NHC seems to have provided a sneak peek for the remaining TCRs in a just-uploaded season summary table:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/2020_ ... _Table.pdf
- Eta is bumped up to 135kt, short of a category 5
- Iota is downgraded to 135kt, no longer a category 5
- Zeta remains 95kt, ie no MH
- Laura remains 130kt
And now the page is gone
0 likes
Hugo (1989) Hortense (1996) Georges (1998) Jeanne (2004) Irene (2011) Maria (2017)
I am NOT a professional meteorologist nor weather professional. Opinions are my own.
Consult with NHC and NOAA for official forecasts and advisories.
I am NOT a professional meteorologist nor weather professional. Opinions are my own.
Consult with NHC and NOAA for official forecasts and advisories.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1366
- Age: 24
- Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
- Location: Hong Kong
- Contact:
Re: 2020 TCRs
Nawtamet wrote:NotoSans wrote:NHC seems to have provided a sneak peek for the remaining TCRs in a just-uploaded season summary table:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/2020_ ... _Table.pdf
- Eta is bumped up to 135kt, short of a category 5
- Iota is downgraded to 135kt, no longer a category 5
- Zeta remains 95kt, ie no MH
- Laura remains 130kt
And now the page is gone
NHC has clarified on Twitter that the summary table is not finalised yet so it has decided to take it down.
3 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
- DorkyMcDorkface
- Category 2
- Posts: 742
- Age: 26
- Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm
- Location: Mid-Atlantic
Re: 2020 TCRs
NotoSans wrote:Nawtamet wrote:NotoSans wrote:NHC seems to have provided a sneak peek for the remaining TCRs in a just-uploaded season summary table:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/2020_ ... _Table.pdf
- Eta is bumped up to 135kt, short of a category 5
- Iota is downgraded to 135kt, no longer a category 5
- Zeta remains 95kt, ie no MH
- Laura remains 130kt
And now the page is gone
NHC has clarified on Twitter that the summary table is not finalised yet so it has decided to take it down.
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1387779471114219528
2 likes
Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8931
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: 2020 TCRs
NotoSans wrote:Nawtamet wrote:NotoSans wrote:NHC seems to have provided a sneak peek for the remaining TCRs in a just-uploaded season summary table:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/2020_ ... _Table.pdf
- Eta is bumped up to 135kt, short of a category 5
- Iota is downgraded to 135kt, no longer a category 5
- Zeta remains 95kt, ie no MH
- Laura remains 130kt
And now the page is gone
NHC has clarified on Twitter that the summary table is not finalised yet so it has decided to take it down.
Not 100% finalized, but I do agree on Eta at 155 mph & Laura to be at 150 mph . . .
0 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- GrayLancer18
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 88
- Joined: Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:45 pm
- Contact:
Re: 2020 TCRs
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:NotoSans wrote:Nawtamet wrote:
And now the page is gone
NHC has clarified on Twitter that the summary table is not finalised yet so it has decided to take it down.
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1387779471114219528
So maybe there's still a chance to keep Iota as a Cat 5.
1 likes
Hugo (1989) Hortense (1996) Georges (1998) Jeanne (2004) Irene (2011) Maria (2017)
I am NOT a professional meteorologist nor weather professional. Opinions are my own.
Consult with NHC and NOAA for official forecasts and advisories.
I am NOT a professional meteorologist nor weather professional. Opinions are my own.
Consult with NHC and NOAA for official forecasts and advisories.
Re: 2020 TCRs
NotoSans wrote:NHC seems to have provided a sneak peek for the remaining TCRs in a just-uploaded season summary table:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/2020_ ... _Table.pdf
- Eta is bumped up to 135kt, short of a category 5
- Iota is downgraded to 135kt, no longer a category 5
- Zeta remains 95kt, ie no MH
- Laura remains 130kt
Why would they downgrade Iota to a Cat 4? There were clear FL and SFMR Cat 5 winds.
0 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8931
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: 2020 TCRs
Nawtamet wrote:DorkyMcDorkface wrote:NotoSans wrote:
NHC has clarified on Twitter that the summary table is not finalised yet so it has decided to take it down.
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1387779471114219528
So maybe there's still a chance to keep Iota as a Cat 5.
Recon evidence was almost forgotten by the NHC?
0 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: 2020 TCRs
Iceresistance wrote:Nawtamet wrote:DorkyMcDorkface wrote:https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1387779471114219528
So maybe there's still a chance to keep Iota as a Cat 5.
Recon evidence was almost forgotten by the NHC?
Maybe they were thinking the 143 kt SFMR was contaminated by rain or something?
EDIT: just looked back at recon data I saved. Two eyewall passes found 140-150 kt FL winds and 140-145 kt SFMR winds. These were unflagged and did not correlate with extremely high rainfall rates. Therefore, this should be enough evidence to keep Iota as a 140 kt Cat 5, and as much as I think Eta could’ve briefly been a Cat 5 at its peak, Iota has far more direct evidence supporting >135 kt.
Last edited by aspen on Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
4 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8931
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: 2020 TCRs
aspen wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Nawtamet wrote:
So maybe there's still a chance to keep Iota as a Cat 5.
Recon evidence was almost forgotten by the NHC?
Maybe they were thinking the 143 kt SFMR was contaminated by rain or something?
Was it flagged during one of the missions that proved that Iota was a CAT 5?
Can I see that 143 knot SFMR if it was flagged while on the mission or not?
0 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 4623
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: 2020 TCRs
If they downgrade Iota, then they might as well go right back to the 2016 files and downgrade Matthew as well... But maybe it was just a typo because I really don't see how they could downgrade it.
0 likes
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1366
- Age: 24
- Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
- Location: Hong Kong
- Contact:
Re: 2020 TCRs
aspen wrote:NotoSans wrote:NHC seems to have provided a sneak peek for the remaining TCRs in a just-uploaded season summary table:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/2020_ ... _Table.pdf
- Eta is bumped up to 135kt, short of a category 5
- Iota is downgraded to 135kt, no longer a category 5
- Zeta remains 95kt, ie no MH
- Laura remains 130kt
Why would they downgrade Iota to a Cat 4? There were clear FL and SFMR Cat 5 winds.
Fight-level winds for Iota themselves are not fully supportive of category 5, as 147kt at 700mb yields 132kt at surface using the standard 0.9 reduction factor.
So Iota itself is a borderline case, but it'd be quite rare for NHC to downgrade a storm to category 4.
3 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
Re: 2020 TCRs
NotoSans wrote:aspen wrote:NotoSans wrote:NHC seems to have provided a sneak peek for the remaining TCRs in a just-uploaded season summary table:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/2020_ ... _Table.pdf
- Eta is bumped up to 135kt, short of a category 5
- Iota is downgraded to 135kt, no longer a category 5
- Zeta remains 95kt, ie no MH
- Laura remains 130kt
Why would they downgrade Iota to a Cat 4? There were clear FL and SFMR Cat 5 winds.
Fight-level winds for Iota themselves are not fully supportive of category 5, as 147kt at 700mb yields 132kt at surface using the standard 0.9 reduction factor.
So Iota itself is a borderline case, but it'd be quite rare for NHC to downgrade a storm to category 4.
However, SFMR was showing 140-145 kt winds even without high rain rates, and it found Cat 5 surface and FL winds in two consecutive passes through the eye with dropping pressure. This suggests FL winds were mixing rather well down to the surface, so the standard reduction factor for 700 mb to surface winds would be an underestimate.
4 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2020 TCRs: NHC Summary table taken down from Twitter
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8931
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: 2020 TCRs
aspen wrote:NotoSans wrote:aspen wrote:Why would they downgrade Iota to a Cat 4? There were clear FL and SFMR Cat 5 winds.
Fight-level winds for Iota themselves are not fully supportive of category 5, as 147kt at 700mb yields 132kt at surface using the standard 0.9 reduction factor.
So Iota itself is a borderline case, but it'd be quite rare for NHC to downgrade a storm to category 4.
However, SFMR was showing 140-145 kt winds even without high rain rates, and it found Cat 5 surface and FL winds in two consecutive passes through the eye with dropping pressure. This suggests FL winds were mixing rather well down to the surface, so the standard reduction factor for 700 mb to surface winds would be an underestimate.
https://i.imgur.com/Az6zqpe.jpg
There is probably enough evidence for Iota as a CAT 5 storm on Surface & FL winds . . .
0 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: 2020 TCRs: NHC Summary table taken down from Twitter
They’re saying the intensities haven’t been finalized, but do not specify individual storms. Therefore, I think it’s safe to assume most or all of the four remaining storms will not have the same peak winds in their finalized TCRs as they did on that table, but that raises the question as to why the table was put up in the first place if the TCRs aren’t even done yet. It may suggest that they are coming soon, but probably not within the next few days.
It would be very odd if the NHC keeps Zeta as a Cat 2 and downgrades Iota while raising Eta’s peak at the same time. Eta had less direct evidence for increasing its peak than Zeta or Iota.
0 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 219
- Age: 54
- Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:32 pm
- Contact:
Re: 2020 TCRs: NHC Summary table taken down from Twitter
aspen wrote:
They’re saying the intensities haven’t been finalized, but do not specify individual storms. Therefore, I think it’s safe to assume most or all of the four remaining storms will not have the same peak winds in their finalized TCRs as they did on that table, but that raises the question as to why the table was put up in the first place if the TCRs aren’t even done yet. It may suggest that they are coming soon, but probably not within the next few days.
It would be very odd if the NHC keeps Zeta as a Cat 2 and downgrades Iota while raising Eta’s peak at the same time. Eta had less direct evidence for increasing its peak than Zeta or Iota.
As you noted, it’s hard to conceptualize why that chart was posted given the subsequent tweet that was made. Even more confusing, why did they have altered intensities for ETA and IOTA on the chart? Unless those amended intensities are the way they’re leaning, it really makes very little sense. Like you, I’d be surprised if they downgraded IOTA.
All that said, it’s important to acknowledge that there may be additional data we aren’t yet privy to that could justify such adjustments...if they actually make those changes.
2 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Cpv17, duilaslol, Google [Bot], IsabelaWeather, kenayers, kevin, South Texas Storms, Sps123, StormPyrate, StormWeather, wwizard and 90 guests