Robust Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[SconnieCane]

No chance to recurve atleast not before FL.

Hard to say that, I thought the same about Dorian and then the models in unison started stalling it out before taking it north.

Only thing is the Bahamas look to take another pounding regardless.

[toad strangler]

No chance to recurve atleast not before FL.

Hard to say that, I thought the same about Dorian and then the models in unison started stalling it out before taking it north.

Only thing is the Bahamas look to take another pounding regardless.

There is always a chance of some sort of weakness that wasn't foreseen to yank it up.

[Kazmit]

GFS may be back to its old unenthusiastic self unless it springs back to life in the GOM.

[ScottNAtlanta]

JB in his update this morning said the pattern reminded him of Andrew. Not saying this is Andrew...just similar pattern. Whenever these storms get bent west, they are big trouble. No good comes from it.

[sma10]

12z UKMET. If somebody can plot this but it looks to take the system north of the islands


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 17.8N 54.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.08.2020 17.8N 54.4W WEAK
12UTC 21.08.2020 18.9N 56.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2020 20.1N 59.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2020 20.9N 63.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2020 21.9N 66.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2020 22.9N 70.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is very similar to ICON. Just a bit more to the NW

[Blown Away]

GFS trend near W Cuba... Weaker more North and stronger 97L into Louisiana...

[AutoPenalti]

Yikes on that ICON run, good thing it's ways out.

[cheezyWXguy]

GFS may be back to its old unenthusiastic self unless it springs back to life in the GOM.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200817/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-29.png

It’s only unenthusiastic because it shreds the system over the islands. I wouldn’t put much stock in that yet, since a track is hard to determine this far out. I am more interested in the intensity the models show for tracks that don’t involve land interaction. I’m not saying it should be taken as gospel, but I think it serves as a decent indicator of what the environment could be like when the system reaches these regions

[Kazmit]

Marco 2.0? (Which might actually be named Marco)

[toad strangler]

Yikes on that ICON run, good thing it's ways out.

Yes, that and there is no cohesive system yet to latch on to. I'm sure tons of changes inbound. BUT ... yeah, yikes is right

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC looks to be coming in like ICON...North of PR and strengthening. Stay tuned...

[SFLcane]

Folks, I meant no excape route on the Icon run.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Canadian so far. Still heading WNw




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[WeatherEmperor]

Canadian in a dangerous position to strike South Florida




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ConvergenceZone]

Even wxman mentioned that he’s concerned about this one on another thread. And that doesn’t happen too often

[Aric Dunn]

all models are in line now. .with that persistent trough over the eastern US to finally leave after a month.. setting the classic east to wes atlantic ridging ... heading into September not looking good for anyone..


absolutely no hole for the CMC>

[Blown Away]

12z GFS says pump the breaks N of the Islands and goes S all the way to MX/TX border...

[WeatherEmperor]

Canadian goes through the FL straights into the GOM. Here is closest approach to the FL Keys




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[toad strangler]

CMC sends a BEAST through the FL Straights into the Western Gulf and starts a more N turn

[sma10]

Even wxman mentioned that he’s concerned about this one on another thread. And that doesn’t happen too often

Yeah, stay tuned. I also would not sleep on 97L