I may be wrong. It looked better this a.m. Now it looks more like 3 blobs.
The one behind this looks better now. It always seems like the 'next one' looks better.

Moderator: S2k Moderators
TheStormExpert wrote:This wave future 95L will be the ultimate test to see if it can become a big ACE producer and a major hurricane as Paulette and Rene aren’t looking too great tonight. So far the ACE this season to date with the 17/5/1 are less than that of which Dorian alone produced last season if that puts things into perspective.
supercane4867 wrote:Long range GFS in the MDR always underestimate the ridge. I can’t remember one single scenario that it didn’t.
Spacecoast wrote:It appears (to me) that it seems to be losing a little organization tonight...?
I may be wrong. It looked better this a.m. Now it looks more like 3 blobs.
The one behind this looks better now. It always seems like the 'next one' looks better.
https://i.ibb.co/JyPx9wS/animate.gif
SconnieCane wrote:supercane4867 wrote:Long range GFS in the MDR always underestimate the ridge. I can’t remember one single scenario that it didn’t.
...and the EURO always overestimates it, although usually not in the short-range to the extent that it and its ensembles did in insisting on sending Laura to Galveston. It's usually more like in the case of Irma, where it put it a little deeper into Cuba than actually transpired before hooking north to Florida.
Fancy1001 wrote:in the gfs 18z, are the remnants of Rene pulling sally northward preventing it from heading into the northern Caribbean, or is it preventing sally from going more out to sea sooner and being pushed closer to the US?
Hurricaneman wrote:Is it me or from 168hrs to 222hrs on the 0zGFS is heading into a ridge instead of around it, may have to look at the ensembles for better clarification
Also the 0zGFS seems to follow the low level flow which has a weakness which makes no sense, a cat 2 hurricane doesn’t use the low level flow for steering but more the 500 flow which is more West
Users browsing this forum: weatherSnoop and 44 guests