2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[SFLcane]

The fact that the Atlantic can muster up hyperactive seasons at all is proof that there's a +AMO. Back in the -AMO even above average seasons were few and far between, much unlike the 6 (and perhaps 7 this year) consecutive above average seasons

Archived satellite imagery suggests that seasonal ACE from 1971–94 was likely significantly underestimated (reanalysis has also significantly bolstered ACE in a number of earlier cases, e.g., 1970). A number of hurricanes and even majors likely went undocumented as such, to not mention numerous “depressions” that were actually (sub-)tropical storms, and an objective reanalysis would likely substantially increase the MSW of several existing storms, among them Blanche, Doris, Eloise, and Gladys (1975); Candice and Gloria (1976); Cora, Ella, Flossie, and Greta (1978); Gloria (1979); Bonnie, Frances, and Ivan (1980); Emily, Floyd, Harvey, and Jose (1981); Diana (1984); Helene and Joan (1988); and so on. 1980, 1988, and/or 1989 may well have been hyperactive.

Most of the storm’s mentioned had aircraft confirmation through them, so it’s unlikely there are any huge errors. Yes, some higher latitude stuff was highly likely to be undetected but remember observations were a lot better and a lot more consistent after the Dvorak technique was put into use, after the first geostationary satellites were launched, and the modern version of Dvorak was established in 1984 (important for the non-recon observed upper end systems). 1980 is the only season with a shot of getting near hyperactive of the batch which would put it at 1 hyperactive year in 25 seasons.

As for the SST configuration, we still have more often than not a +AMO horseshoe even if it’s further north and east than 1995-2012.

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/image/daily/ssta/gif/2019/coraltemp5km_ssta_20190520_large.gif

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/image/daily/ssta/gif/2016/coraltemp5km_ssta_20160530_large.gif

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/image/daily/ssta/gif/2017/coraltemp5km_ssta_20170530_large.gif

Well putting it further NE means it's out of the MDR. Which is why we have the stability issues (partially). The MDR is where it counts. Period

[Yellow Evan]

Archived satellite imagery suggests that seasonal ACE from 1971–94 was likely significantly underestimated (reanalysis has also significantly bolstered ACE in a number of earlier cases, e.g., 1970). A number of hurricanes and even majors likely went undocumented as such, to not mention numerous “depressions” that were actually (sub-)tropical storms, and an objective reanalysis would likely substantially increase the MSW of several existing storms, among them Blanche, Doris, Eloise, and Gladys (1975); Candice and Gloria (1976); Cora, Ella, Flossie, and Greta (1978); Gloria (1979); Bonnie, Frances, and Ivan (1980); Emily, Floyd, Harvey, and Jose (1981); Diana (1984); Helene and Joan (1988); and so on. 1980, 1988, and/or 1989 may well have been hyperactive.

Most of the storm’s mentioned had aircraft confirmation through them, so it’s unlikely there are any huge errors. Yes, some higher latitude stuff was highly likely to be undetected but remember observations were a lot better and a lot more consistent after the Dvorak technique was put into use, after the first geostationary satellites were launched, and the modern version of Dvorak was established in 1984 (important for the non-recon observed upper end systems). 1980 is the only season with a shot of getting near hyperactive of the batch which would put it at 1 hyperactive year in 25 seasons.

As for the SST configuration, we still have more often than not a +AMO horseshoe even if it’s further north and east than 1995-2012.

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/image/daily/ssta/gif/2019/coraltemp5km_ssta_20190520_large.gif

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/image/daily/ssta/gif/2016/coraltemp5km_ssta_20160530_large.gif

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/image/daily/ssta/gif/2017/coraltemp5km_ssta_20170530_large.gif

Well putting it further NE means it's out of the MDR. Which is why we have the stability issues (partially). The MDR is where it counts. Period

Possibly. But that isn’t the same as a -AMO, which was my original point.

[AlphaToOmega]

I really want to call a +AMM for ASO right now, but I am not sure if I have enough information right now. All the model guidance shows it; we probably will not have an Atlantic Niño strong enough to "steal" warmth from the MDR like we did last year; Africa always warms the AMM during hurricane season. Is this enough to call a +AMM for ASO?

[Category5Kaiju]

I really want to call a +AMM for ASO right now, but I am not sure if I have enough information right now. All the model guidance shows it; we probably will not have an Atlantic Niño strong enough to "steal" warmth from the MDR like we did last year; Africa always warms the AMM during hurricane season. Is this enough to call a +AMM for ASO?

I wouldn't say that it is "enough" this early per se, but I will say is that lacking a strong Atlantic Nino will really favor MDR storms, assuming dry air, shear, and thermodynamics are favorable too.

[cycloneye]

Well, I also have to open the eyes after looking at this from Mr Noll.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1503386469158768654

[cycloneye]

Webb has another perspective.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1503421222713020417

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1503422213776719885

[zzh]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1503442126994038788



 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1503442129720328192



 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1503442131293249537

[AlphaToOmega]

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1503442126994038788
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1503442129720328192
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1503442131293249537

The AMM is usually positive during ASO (peak of hurricane season), but it has been negative during ASO during the seasons of 1997, 2000, 2002, and 2018. What do those seasons have in common that the other ones from 1995 and onwards do not?

[Shell Mound]

As I have stated previously: so long as the subtropical Atlantic continues to remain as warm as it has been over most of the past nine seasons, hyperactivity, especially in the MDR, will be virtually impossible to come by. A warm subtropical (northwestern) Atlantic, especially when combined with an Atlantic Niño, is fundamentally a -AMM signature. This kind of signature not only produces stability in the deep tropics, but also results in anticyclonic wave-breaking and TUTT streamers, as a consequence of strengthened low-level easterlies over the deep tropics. So the MDR and eastern Caribbean will continue to struggle to generate anything more than slightly-above-average ACE at best. This is why I believe we are in a -AMO rather than +AMO currently.

On the other hand:



This graphic highlights one of the regions (50-60°N, 50-10°W) that is used to calculate the AMO. Per the graphic, February 2022 was considerably warmer in this region than the mean of the past nine seasons has been, suggesting that the February AMO was more positive than has been seen over the past decade. As of 13 March 2022, the aforementioned region has continued to be warmer than has often been seen during this timeframe over the past several seasons.

[Woofde]

As I have stated previously: so long as the subtropical Atlantic continues to remain as warm as it has been over most of the past nine seasons, hyperactivity, especially in the MDR, will be virtually impossible to come by. A warm subtropical (northwestern) Atlantic, especially when combined with an Atlantic Niño, is fundamentally a -AMM signature. This kind of signature not only produces stability in the deep tropics, but also results in anticyclonic wave-breaking and TUTT streamers, as a consequence of strengthened low-level easterlies over the deep tropics. So the MDR and eastern Caribbean will continue to struggle to generate anything more than slightly-above-average ACE at best. This is why I believe we are in a -AMO rather than +AMO currently.

On the other hand:

https://i.ibb.co/GVkw9d3/AMO-Region.png

This graphic highlights one of the regions (50-60°N, 50-10°W) that is used to calculate the AMO. Per the graphic, February 2022 was considerably warmer in this region than the mean of the past nine seasons has been, suggesting that the February AMO was more positive than has been seen over the past decade. As of 13 March 2022, the aforementioned region has continued to be warmer than has often been seen during this timeframe over the past several seasons.

Well even if we are in a -AMO cycle, it certainly hasn't done a thing to slow hurricane activity down. We haven't had an average or below season in the past 6 years now.

[SFLcane]

Well, I also have to open the eyes after looking at this from Mr Noll.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1503386469158768654

This Kinda looks like a recurve pattern but its still very early.

[Category5Kaiju]

Well, I also have to open the eyes after looking at this from Mr Noll.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1503386469158768654

This Kinda looks like a recurve pattern but its still very early.

According to that pattern, it seems like there will likely be two major clusters of storm tracks: those that form in the MDR and recurve and those that form in the Caribbean Sea and make their way north. The latter imho is what we definitely should keep an eye on, especially given how they "could" intensify very fast and have a higher chance of hitting populated regions. Yes, this includes Florida.

[AutoPenalti]

Well, I also have to open the eyes after looking at this from Mr Noll.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1503386469158768654

This Kinda looks like a recurve pattern but its still very early.

According to that pattern, it seems like there will likely be two major clusters of storm tracks: those that form in the MDR and recurve and those that form in the Caribbean Sea and make their way north. The latter imho is what we definitely should keep an eye on, especially given how they "could" intensify very fast and have a higher chance of hitting populated regions. Yes, this includes Florida.

If those heights were a bit further south I would agree on the latter, but this looks more like NC/RI risk.

[AlphaToOmega]

As I have stated previously: so long as the subtropical Atlantic continues to remain as warm as it has been over most of the past nine seasons, hyperactivity, especially in the MDR, will be virtually impossible to come by. A warm subtropical (northwestern) Atlantic, especially when combined with an Atlantic Niño, is fundamentally a -AMM signature. This kind of signature not only produces stability in the deep tropics, but also results in anticyclonic wave-breaking and TUTT streamers, as a consequence of strengthened low-level easterlies over the deep tropics. So the MDR and eastern Caribbean will continue to struggle to generate anything more than slightly-above-average ACE at best. This is why I believe we are in a -AMO rather than +AMO currently.

On the other hand:

https://i.ibb.co/GVkw9d3/AMO-Region.png

This graphic highlights one of the regions (50-60°N, 50-10°W) that is used to calculate the AMO. Per the graphic, February 2022 was considerably warmer in this region than the mean of the past nine seasons has been, suggesting that the February AMO was more positive than has been seen over the past decade. As of 13 March 2022, the aforementioned region has continued to be warmer than has often been seen during this timeframe over the past several seasons.

I would not use that as an indication of an active season; what matters is how the AMM is during ASO. The AMM will most likely be positive during ASO, but we saw a -AMM for ASO (in this +AMO cycle alone) during 1997, 2000, 2002, and 2018. If the AMM is negative during ASO (which is unlikely but possible), 2000 might become be a good analog for 2022.

[MarioProtVI]

As I have stated previously: so long as the subtropical Atlantic continues to remain as warm as it has been over most of the past nine seasons, hyperactivity, especially in the MDR, will be virtually impossible to come by. A warm subtropical (northwestern) Atlantic, especially when combined with an Atlantic Niño, is fundamentally a -AMM signature. This kind of signature not only produces stability in the deep tropics, but also results in anticyclonic wave-breaking and TUTT streamers, as a consequence of strengthened low-level easterlies over the deep tropics. So the MDR and eastern Caribbean will continue to struggle to generate anything more than slightly-above-average ACE at best. This is why I believe we are in a -AMO rather than +AMO currently.

On the other hand:

https://i.ibb.co/GVkw9d3/AMO-Region.png

This graphic highlights one of the regions (50-60°N, 50-10°W) that is used to calculate the AMO. Per the graphic, February 2022 was considerably warmer in this region than the mean of the past nine seasons has been, suggesting that the February AMO was more positive than has been seen over the past decade. As of 13 March 2022, the aforementioned region has continued to be warmer than has often been seen during this timeframe over the past several seasons.

Every year when I see you post something resembling this -AMO question the season always seems to bite back and prove this theory completely wrong. 2022 seems like it won’t break from that so I call bull on this whole “-AMO because MDR isn’t hyperactive” thought.

[WiscoWx02]

Not sure how I feel about what phase of the AMO we are in, think Andy Hazelton and others have posted in recent years that we are still technically in a +AMO but it isn't your typical +AMO, it's sorta a hybrid, think EOF2 was what they called it last summer or the summer before but don't quote me on that 100%. The subtropics being warmer than normal is probably the way it's gonna be for the distant future thanks to climate change so while I get what Shell Mound is saying I also get what Not Sparta is saying and others are saying as well and am more inclined to vote we are in a +AMO.

I think this season will be very similar to last year, think 2018 is a good analogue too cause I have never been under the impression El Nino really affected the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, it was the cooler MDR that led to all the stable air and things not taking off till September. Think it'll be a later start in the MDR than last year if trends continue but when things do get going it might get pretty busy for a short while. I also expect to see a lot of May and June tropical storm activity again this year at this point as well, especially if the subtropics are going to run the show again for the most part as they have in recent years. Doesn't mean it won't be a dang busy season though when all is said and done.

[toad strangler]

Well, I also have to open the eyes after looking at this from Mr Noll.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1503386469158768654

This Kinda looks like a recurve pattern but its still very early.

It's extremely early. It's so early I have no idea why I'm even reading this

[AlphaToOmega]

Not sure how I feel about what phase of the AMO we are in, think Andy Hazelton and others have posted in recent years that we are still technically in a +AMO but it isn't your typical +AMO, it's sorta a hybrid, think EOF2 was what they called it last summer or the summer before but don't quote me on that 100%. The subtropics being warmer than normal is probably the way it's gonna be for the distant future thanks to climate change so while I get what Shell Mound is saying I also get what Not Sparta is saying and others are saying as well and am more inclined to vote we are in a +AMO.

I think this season will be very similar to last year, think 2018 is a good analogue too cause I have never been under the impression El Nino really affected the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, it was the cooler MDR that led to all the stable air and things not taking off till September. Think it'll be a later start in the MDR than last year if trends continue but when things do get going it might get pretty busy for a short while. I also expect to see a lot of May and June tropical storm activity again this year at this point as well, especially if the subtropics are going to run the show again for the most part as they have in recent years. Doesn't mean it won't be a dang busy season though when all is said and done.

2021 was a unique underperformer for two reasons:

1. The strong MJO shortened the periods of time for development
2. The strong Atlantic Niño lowered the ITCZ latitude, suppressing late-season development

While 2021 had the base state of a hyperactive season, there were things that made late-season development difficult in that La Niña year; it was like a hybrid of 2007 and 2020. Without the Atlantic Niño or without the strong MJO, 2021 might have actually been hyperactive (it was only 17 ACE away from hyperactivity). Just like everything season, a hyperactive season will happen only if all the pieces fit together.

As for the AMO, we are definitely in a +AMO period; there is no question about that. Using the methodology from Enfield et al., 2001, the AMO has usually been positive since the late 1990s.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data

[mixedDanilo.E]

We are very much in a +AMO. Bs to think we aren’t. A -AMO wouldn’t produce the type of landfalls we been seeing every year since 2016. Only reason why MDR is cooler earlier on is bc consistent +NAO have been occurring winter since like 2012-2013 but then once it calms the MDR warms a lot. Y’all it isn’t just SSTAs that’s the picture - it’s the other things too like landfalls and In that regard we are very much in +AMO.