2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[wxman57]

For the most part and regardless of strength, the models are now all agreeing on a system to form in about 5-7 days somewhere near central America. 00z GFS continues to favor a WCaribbean system. 00z Euro and CMC favor a eastern EPAC system.

No, they're not agreeing. Nothing at all in the Euro and Canadian runs. This is a GFS fantasy storm, most likely.

[AutoPenalti]

But, but , but gfs....

https://i.postimg.cc/pXPh58nS/gfs-jpeg.gif

Yes, it's still wrong, however development of something increased dramatically imo.

[aspen]

For the most part and regardless of strength, the models are now all agreeing on a system to form in about 5-7 days somewhere near central America. 00z GFS continues to favor a WCaribbean system. 00z Euro and CMC favor a eastern EPAC system.

No, they're not agreeing. Nothing at all in the Euro and Canadian runs. This is a GFS fantasy storm, most likely.

The 00z Euro and CMC show a ball of vorticity trying to spin up on the Pacific side of Nicaragua and Honduras next Friday/Saturday, the same time frame in which the GFS storm forms. I think that is the same thing the GFS has been picking up on, except shifted further west

[Cpv17]

For the most part and regardless of strength, the models are now all agreeing on a system to form in about 5-7 days somewhere near central America. 00z GFS continues to favor a WCaribbean system. 00z Euro and CMC favor a eastern EPAC system.

No, they're not agreeing. Nothing at all in the Euro and Canadian runs. This is a GFS fantasy storm, most likely.

The 00z Euro and CMC show a ball of vorticity trying to spin up on the Pacific side of Nicaragua and Honduras next Friday/Saturday, the same time frame in which the GFS storm forms. I think that is the same thing the GFS has been picking up on, except shifted further west

Remember too how the Euro has failed to pick up on genesis over recent years even when it was currently happening.

[Gums]

Salute!

Prognostications remind me of Alma in 1966. Was scary here in the Panhandle and thankfully lessened before hitting the forgotten coast.

Gums sends...

[skyline385]

For the most part and regardless of strength, the models are now all agreeing on a system to form in about 5-7 days somewhere near central America. 00z GFS continues to favor a WCaribbean system. 00z Euro and CMC favor a eastern EPAC system.

No, they're not agreeing. Nothing at all in the Euro and Canadian runs. This is a GFS fantasy storm, most likely.

We have this EPS showing some development posted a few comments ago. While i do think that the chances are pretty slim, it has been popping up on the Euro.

[skyline385]

12Z GFS is probably the most realistic scenario so far. A sheared weak system making landfall near the FL panhandle.

[Kingarabian]

For the most part and regardless of strength, the models are now all agreeing on a system to form in about 5-7 days somewhere near central America. 00z GFS continues to favor a WCaribbean system. 00z Euro and CMC favor a eastern EPAC system.

No, they're not agreeing. Nothing at all in the Euro and Canadian runs. This is a GFS fantasy storm, most likely.

There's a well defined 850mb vort in the EPAC, which in reality equates to a tropical disturbance/system (doesnt have to be a TC as the GFS suggests) on both the Euro and CMC, that runs up the western Mexican/CA coast. I see that as a consensus that a CAG will take place and potentially spawning one or two disturbances.

[cycloneye]

Good GEFS ensemble signal.

[SFLcane]

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.postimg.cc/GhTb3N6L/yea.gif

EPS seems to be growing ever so slightly.

[skyline385]

Good GEFS ensemble signal.

It's also pretty much the same as the operational run, most of them seem to be converging on a location as we get near.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Cant wait to see gas prices after the first Gulf Storm

Lord have mercy

[MGC]

No, they're not agreeing. Nothing at all in the Euro and Canadian runs. This is a GFS fantasy storm, most likely.

The 00z Euro and CMC show a ball of vorticity trying to spin up on the Pacific side of Nicaragua and Honduras next Friday/Saturday, the same time frame in which the GFS storm forms. I think that is the same thing the GFS has been picking up on, except shifted further west

Remember too how the Euro has failed to pick up on genesis over recent years even when it was currently happening.

Yes, if I recall correctly, the GFS beat the EURO to the punch on TC genesis several times last season. So, a TC forming in the NW Caribbean in late May is within the realm of possibility......MGC

[Zonacane]

Cant wait to see gas prices after the first Gulf Storm

Lord have mercy

Welcome back to 2005

[Category5Kaiju]

18z GFS hates Tampa Bay apparently

[hurricane2025]

Yeah I could see that pattern being this early

[IcyTundra]

Trough digging in over Texas on this run. Would give us some much needed rainfall.

[IcyTundra]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1525245759909658624

[skyline385]

EPS now has most members in the EPAC, GEFS still insistent on Caribbean