Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 96L)

[BobHarlem]

18z icon with development around 108 hours

[toad strangler]

Just for giggles, here are your later than TODAY landfalls on the east coast of FL since 1850. So while it’s getting late ISH it’s not unprecedented and six of the nine were majors.

9/15/1945 Cat 4 Miami Dade
9/16/1947 Cat 4 Broward
9/17/1928 Cat 4 Palm Beach
9/18/1926 Cat 4 Miami/Dade
9/26/2005 Cat 3 Martin
10/6/1941 Cat 2 Miami/Dade
10/17/1904 Cat 1 Miami/Dade
10/18/1950 Cat 4 Miami/Dade
11/4/1935 Cat 2 Miami/Dade

[LarryWx]

The Happy Hour GFS, which has very delayed development, is looking to hit the US Gulf, a very plausible scenario from this.

Edit: It actually misses the US and hits MX!

[Nimbus]

18Z Euro just shows the outline of the wave undeveloped tracking west.
There is a weakness at 120 hours when the Icon has this tracking NE of Puerto Rico.
By 141 hours though there is a high located to the north that would trap any storm and pull it west.
Five days out so the ridging forecasts could be important.
A stronger invest spinning up early might take advantage of the weakness at 120 hours to recurve but we don't have any invest runs yet.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1569458855742152704

[cycloneye]

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little more
concentrated associated with a tropical wave located midway between
the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands. Some additional
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the
central tropical Atlantic and approaches the Windward Islands by the
end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

This is big. 18z Euro develops.

[gatorcane]

This is big. 18z Euro develops.

https://i.imgur.com/qJQR1gf.gif

So the GFS and CMC are the only two models which do not develop in the next 5 days, seems we need an invest tag on this.

[Category5Kaiju]

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little more
concentrated associated with a tropical wave located midway between
the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands. Some additional
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the
central tropical Atlantic and approaches the Windward Islands by the
end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/3nBxiu4.jpg

Zone of potential development now encompasses its current location. Hmm, idk, maybe this season isn't so done after all

[skyline385]

This is big. 18z Euro develops.

https://i.imgur.com/qJQR1gf.gif

Already a TD near the LA, this is the most bullish run of all recent model runs (not just the Euro) so far

[Wampadawg]

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little more
concentrated associated with a tropical wave located midway between
the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands. Some additional
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the
central tropical Atlantic and approaches the Windward Islands by the
end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/3nBxiu4.jpg

Zone of potential development now encompasses its current location. Hmm, idk, maybe this season isn't so done after all

A late inning rally for the season??

[Category5Kaiju]

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little more
concentrated associated with a tropical wave located midway between
the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands. Some additional
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the
central tropical Atlantic and approaches the Windward Islands by the
end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/3nBxiu4.jpg

Zone of potential development now encompasses its current location. Hmm, idk, maybe this season isn't so done after all

A late inning rally for the season??

Perhaps? It remains to be seen, but this is among the most persistent and impressive waves we've tracked so far this season, which says a lot

[sma10]

This is big. 18z Euro develops.

https://i.imgur.com/qJQR1gf.gif

As a quick aside, also pay notice to the wave exiting Africa on the final frame, south of the CV islands. Euro and CMC both want to track this into the islands as well.

[emeraldislenc]

I agree probably most impressive wave so far this year.
Too many people think the season is over.

[SFLcane]

[Blown Away]

This is big. 18z Euro develops.

https://i.imgur.com/qJQR1gf.gif

Moving fast, if NHC is believing in the model trends they will tag this invest soon b/c potentially 3 days out from NE Caribbean/PR.

[BobHarlem]

Pre-Earl was moving at snails pace to the west, this is moving a lot faster. Would be over the islands on Friday and Saturday. If the overnight models show development in 72 hours, watch the chances go up in the TWO.

[LarryWx]

So, just about all of the latest operational runs are now developing this. Looking at the very impressive convection and the strong model support, and when considering analogs as well as near peak season climo in mid September, I'd now be quite surprised if this doesn't become a TC. Just looking at it, it is screaming genesis. It doesn't at all resemble the many dry AEWs of recent weeks. Who's to say that this won't be the most impactful storm of the season? I wouldn't bet against it.

Keep in mind that should this end up a big deal that the UKMET of 8 days ago was the first model to show TCG for this.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1569486257188753408

[SFLcane]

Watch that steering!