Right now it’s also being influenced by shear from Fiona, once she gets going North we might get a clearer idea.
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Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)
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skyline385
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)
That is a big weakness.
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PTrackerLA
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)
And now the Euro fully on board through 168hrs, this ain't good folks. 
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)
The question will be is this system is fast enough to get picked up by the trough. GFS is slower and allows the ridge to build in while the Euro has a faster moving system allowing it to get picked up. With it being late September I would lean towards a trough picking the system up and taking it to FL, but you never know.
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Ivanhater
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)
It is still pretty far south so it may not be fully picked up. We will see.
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Michael
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PTrackerLA
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)
GFS has the same trough but the system is far enough away from it that it doesn’t get picked up.
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Iceresistance
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)
PTrackerLA wrote:Northwest turn at 174hrs...
And already as a hurricane, 984 MB at +192hours. (Using EC-Fast on TT though)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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AutoPenalti
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)
Moving NNW at HR 192.
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Ivanhater
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)
192...Ridge already building back over Florida as trough lifts out
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Michael
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tolakram
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)
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M a r k
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skyline385
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)
Ridge building in over Texas again, i think it’s going to get trapped
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tolakram
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)
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M a r k
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AutoPenalti
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)
This is getting trapped.
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Ivanhater
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)
216. Heading NW into the Gulf. Trough has lifted out. Looks to be aiming for the Northern Gulf coast
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Michael
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tolakram
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)
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M a r k
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AutoPenalti
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)
Trapped.
This looks like North Gulf Coast...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)
I want to see what the EPS has to say about this.
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tolakram
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)
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M a r k
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