Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (Is Invest 98L)

[cycloneye]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0135 PM EDT SAT 05 NOVEMBER 2022
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z NOVEMBER 2022
TCPOD NUMBER.....22-162 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43
A. 07/1200Z (CHANGED)
B. NOAA3 01KKA TDR
C. 07/0800Z (CHANGED)
D. 24.5N 71.0W
E. 07/0900Z TO 07/1500Z
F. 10,000 TO 25,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR 25.0N 72.0W FOR 07/1730Z.
B. TWO MORE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS,
DEPARTING KLAL AT 07/2000Z AND 08/0800Z.

[chaser1]

That "40% within 48 hr.s" is a bit disconcerting considering only a broad area low pressure. GCANE may be right about that small spin southwest of PR. I assumed it would simply be the first of multiple eddies until a more cohesive LLC were to try and develop north of the Greater Antilles under a more centralized convective mass.

[NDG]

Very important if the current vortex that is going to swing around Hispaniola where it ends up, if it gets underneath the ULL that is where it will find less shear and transition into a tropical system, which is what the runs of the latest 12z GFS shows, as well as yesterday's 12z & 18z runs.

[cycloneye]

Key messages.

[InfernoFlameCat]

November is the new October.
Quite the active basin out there. We could see a marginal hurricane out of this.

[jlauderdal]

Blown Away, UKMET is always a conservative model and to have that solution is telling.

GCANE observed the AOI moving through Mona Pass instead of over or E of you in PR. That may be the reason PR is now getting more rain & wind and may bring a stronger system into Bahamas/FL?

Is raining in all the island with flooding occuring in some places.

Stay safe, that looks juicy

[chaser1]

Evidence of some small rotation at the very lower-left side of that PR radar

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow:

That "40% within 48 hr.s" is a bit disconcerting considering only a broad area low pressure. GCANE may be right about that small spin southwest of PR. I assumed it would simply be the first of multiple eddies until a more cohesive LLC were to try and develop north of the Greater Antilles under a more centralized convective mass.

Get concerned at 70+

[BobHarlem]

Euro coming in a bit stronger this run, but not as strong as cmc/gfs

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This is an extremely complex genesis scenario. Ian, in comparison, was much more simple. A huge mess that could turn into anything.

[AtlanticWind]

Euro has 1003 mb near key largo

[Blown Away]

Euro has 1003 mb near key largo

12z Euro… Circulation much better defined than all previous runs. Timing about same as GFS and slightly L of GFS, so the middle of GFS/Euro is @Miami.

[chaser1]

Euro 12Z run has it sitting over Key Largo Thursday morn. moving a bit south of due west at 1003mb. That's about 3mb stronger than it's prior 6Z run.

[chaser1]

Looks like a set-up for a second landfall around Tally perhaps?

[GCANE]

Looking to see convection fire up around 23N 70W by tomorrow morning.
Expecting development during the day then.

[jlauderdal]

Euro has 1003 mb near key largo

1007 yesterday

[Category5Kaiju]

I do not anticipate future 98L to become anywhere near as strong, but here's an example of a memorable hurricane that took a WSW turn right before hitting the East Coast of Florida (1929):

[Sciencerocks]

[jlauderdal]

I do not anticipate future 98L to become anywhere near as strong, but here's an example of a memorable hurricane that took a WSW turn right before hitting the East Coast of Florida (1929):

Katrina took a dive too...i almost got hit by a flying stop sign that day

[GCANE]

Evidence of some small rotation at the very lower-left side of that PR radar

Seeing a couple vortices in the heavy convection on Punta Cana radar