Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 93L)

[robbielyn]

People are way too quick to write off the Gulf

Gulf is hostile a lot of the time with east gulf storms. they get sheer fro ull’s and dry air at the mid levels a lot of the time. we get sheered right sided storms every year just about. but definitely needs to be watched.

[GCANE]

CAPE 7000 offshore Houston.
Good thing its not headed that way.
CAPE 4500 just south of the Keys though.

[TomballEd]

Looks as though there’s a broad low over the borders of El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua, might be in the Caribbean by tonight or tomorrow

Shows up clearly on the Euro 850mb vorticity maps. While I'm not inclined to believe the Euro's hurricane hit, I do think it could be a TD/TS. I'll take one of those for SE TX.

Sadly there is one of 50 Euro ensembles through 240 hours that would rain on Houston, and a 941 hurricane as a drought breaker probably isn't a good thing. Houston just broke the record with 109°F and another hour to go up another degree. Someone should start a fire weather page for Texas.

[Jr0d]

Whatever does form will be quite large. you can see it it taking shape already

https://i.postimg.cc/6513QtK4/gggg.gif

Definitely coming along nicely. My uneducated guess is when the low over Hondorus makes in to the Caribbean, we will get an official invest.

I am interested to see how bullish the HWRF will be on it.

[GCANE]

Popups over all Cuba, Jamaica
Some over Yucatan and Belize
Northern part of Honduras
West Carib is Juiced

[IcyTundra]

Looks as though there’s a broad low over the borders of El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua, might be in the Caribbean by tonight or tomorrow

Shows up clearly on the Euro 850mb vorticity maps. While I'm not inclined to believe the Euro's hurricane hit, I do think it could be a TD/TS. I'll take one of those for SE TX.

Maybe we can get a sheared TS in September. I kinda doubt it though.

[toad strangler]

People are way too quick to write off the Gulf

Gulf is hostile a lot of the time with east gulf storms. they get sheer fro ull’s and dry air at the mid levels a lot of the time. we get sheered right sided storms every year just about. but definitely needs to be watched.

Have to factor in the calendar. It’s that nutty time post 8/20 bell ringing and 9/9 Peak. Mucho respect to climatology. That said, I don’t think an unexpected blow up is in the cards. But… calendar lol

[Zonacane]

People are way too quick to write off the Gulf

Gulf is hostile a lot of the time with east gulf storms. they get sheer fro ull’s and dry air at the mid levels a lot of the time. we get sheered right sided storms every year just about. but definitely needs to be watched.

Enough ensemble members or model runs are hinting at the possibility of a favorable environment that I wouldn't write it off.

[Kingarabian]

Climo is meant to be broken. There probably wouldn't be enough water time for a stronger hurricane hit over SFL. But, the bend area/panhandle could easily see a stronger system if it tracks that way.

[emeraldislenc]

I think it would have plenty of time to intensify if the conditions are right!

[MJGarrison]

Climo is meant to be broken. There probably wouldn't be enough water time for a stronger hurricane hit over SFL. But, the bend area/panhandle could easily see a stronger system if it tracks that way.

Agreed. Climo is just what we expect the atmosphere to look like based on history. Now that we’re here, we can see what the atmosphere actually looks like.


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[robbielyn]

Climo is meant to be broken. There probably wouldn't be enough water time for a stronger hurricane hit over SFL. But, the bend area/panhandle could easily see a stronger system if it tracks that way.

yeah but the trough digging down plus the ull to the west will keep it in check most likely but there’s always a first time for everything.

[Ianswfl]

Whatever does form will be quite large. you can see it it taking shape already

https://i.postimg.cc/6513QtK4/gggg.gif

Definitely coming along nicely. My uneducated guess is when the low over Hondorus makes in to the Caribbean, we will get an official invest.

I am interested to see how bullish the HWRF will be on it.

Probably the usual 170mph storm. HWRF and HMON always go nuts.

[gatorcane]

The GFS in the latest 18Z coming in now insists the environment will be lousy in the Eastern Gulf. While the Euro is showing a strong TS. Battle of the model titans in full force.

18Z GFS loop modeling a stretched out area of vorticity in the Eastern Gulf:

[toad strangler]

The GFS in the latest 18Z coming in now insists the environment will be lousy in the Eastern Gulf. While the Euro is showing a strong TS. Battle of the model titans in full force.

18Z GEFS loop modeling a stretched out area of vorticity in the Eastern Gulf:
https://i.postimg.cc/t4PHYjPx/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh0-132.gif

Let’s see if 18z GEFS is as empty as 12z was too. No matter, we’ll soon find out if it’s truly Tis’ the Season

[IcyTundra]

The GFS in the latest 18Z coming in now insists the environment will be lousy in the Eastern Gulf. While the Euro is showing a strong TS. Battle of the model titans in full force.

18Z GEFS loop modeling a stretched out area of vorticity in the Eastern Gulf:
https://i.postimg.cc/t4PHYjPx/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh0-132.gif

GEFS still not showing much.

Let’s see if 18z GEFS is as empty as 12z was too. No matter, we’ll soon find out if it’s truly Tis’ the Season

[Iceresistance]

The GFS in the latest 18Z coming in now insists the environment will be lousy in the Eastern Gulf. While the Euro is showing a strong TS. Battle of the model titans in full force.

18Z GEFS loop modeling a stretched out area of vorticity in the Eastern Gulf:
https://i.postimg.cc/t4PHYjPx/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh0-132.gif

Let’s see if 18z GEFS is as empty as 12z was too. No matter, we’ll soon find out if it’s truly Tis’ the Season

GEFS still not showing much.

I see only one member that gets below 1000 mb in the GoM

[lsuhurricane]

18z GEFS says all clear in the GOM. Either the GFS or Euro will be a flop given this is less than 4 days out from cyclogenesis.

Will post the 18z EPS once it gets rolling

[Ianswfl]

The GFS in the latest 18Z coming in now insists the environment will be lousy in the Eastern Gulf. While the Euro is showing a strong TS. Battle of the model titans in full force.

18Z GEFS loop modeling a stretched out area of vorticity in the Eastern Gulf:
https://i.postimg.cc/t4PHYjPx/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh0-132.gif

Let’s see if 18z GEFS is as empty as 12z was too. No matter, we’ll soon find out if it’s truly Tis’ the Season

It's showing weak lows. Showing it, not very strong.

I think an 1999 Irene storm is a good bet, intensity wise. Lopsided storm, maybe right before landfall gets more organized. IMO I'll go with 80mph at landfall Tampa area.

[ElectricStorm]

I never trust these storms in the Gulf, but the GEFS not showing anything is definitely interesting. I'd like to see more from it to think we'll see a stronger storm. I think a weak/moderate TS is a safe bet for now but I wouldn't be too surprised if it gets stronger than that. Not really seeing a major though