Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[Teban54]

[chris_fit]

06Z EPS still got some spice...

[abajan]

358
ABNT20 KNHC 291133
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the central Tropical Atlantic Ocean is
producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form by early next week while it
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph and approaches the Lesser Antilles.
The system is then forecast to move westward to west-northwestward
across portions of the eastern Caribbean Sea during the middle part
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

That is a solid move by NHC; they like what they are seeing.

Or rather, they don't like what they're seeing.
But I get what you're saying.

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow, this one imho is certainly going to be one to watch. Looks like the meat of the season may be just upon us.

[Teban54]

6z ECMWF at 87 hrs has the vorticity even more organized than the 0z run.

I'm also updating the ensemble member counts for posterity. Usual caveats that some of them may not be bonafide TCs, as Ubuntwo elaborated here.

GEFS member low pressure counts (±2, out of 31):

• 6z 8/29: 12 (39%) as of Eastern Caribbean (a few members start in WCar)
• 0z 8/29: 11 (35%) as of Eastern Caribbean (a few members start in WCar)
• 18z 8/28: 13 (42%) as of Eastern Caribbean
• 12z 8/28: 7 (23%) as of Eastern Caribbean (a few members start in WCar, but unsure if they're from this wave or a CAG)
• 6z 8/28: 9 (29%)
• 0z 8/28: 9 (29%)
• 18z 8/27: 4 (13%)
• 12z 8/27: 9 (29%)
• 6z 8/27: 14 (45%)
• 0z 8/27: 9 (29%)
• 18z 8/26: 19 (61%)
• 12z 8/26: 17 (55%)
• 6z 8/26: 19 (61%)
• 0z 8/26: 16 (52%)
• 18z 8/25: 10 (32%)
• 12z 8/25: 14 (45%)

EPS member low pressure counts (±3, out of 51):

• 6z 8/29 (out to 144 hrs only): 30 (59%, some may not be TCs)
• 0z 8/29: 29 (57%) as of Eastern Caribbean
• 18z 8/28 (out to 144 hrs only): 33 (65%, some may not be TCs)
• 12z 8/28: 18 (35%) as of Eastern Caribbean (a few members dissipate there, a few develop in WCar)
• 6z 8/28 (out to 144 hrs only): 21 (41%, some may not be TCs)
• 0z 8/28: 11 (22%)
• 18z 8/27 (out to 144 hrs only): 15 (29%)
• 12z 8/27: 14 (27%)
• 6z 8/27 (out to 144 hrs only): 20 (39%)
• 0z 8/27: 25 (49%)
• 18z 8/26 (out to 144 hrs only): 27 (53%)
• 12z 8/26: 34 (67%)
• 0z 8/26: 22 (43%)
• 12z 8/25: 11 (22%)

[zzzh]

Broad but closed circulation

[LarryWx]

Last 4 Euro-AI have this go across Yucatan, Bay of Campeche, and back into MX for final landfall.

If we were already in a moderate to strong La Niña (per RONI), I’d favor the Euro-AI more. But with it being only weak, I’m hesitant to bet on this far S track as weak Niña tend to have further N tracks. Of course, these are merely generalities and thus any one storm is still going to be all over the map as far as possible tracks.

[skyline385]

ICON clearly trending upwards

[aspen]

If this tracks south of the islands, as several of the models seem to be leaning towards, then a second long-tracking Caribbean Cruiser major isn’t out of the question. Almost the entire Caribbean is around 30C. Quite a high ceiling assuming the system can put itself together.

[SFLcane]

ICON clearly trending upwards

https://i.imgur.com/mjh0IQH.gif

[wxman57]

I'm hoping it doesn't develop, but I think there's a good chance it will. Currently don't see anything to push it toward the NW Gulf, at least. Could eventually become a Florida threat. We'll see. I'm still taking tomorrow off and will be off until Tuesday (I hope).

[SFLcane]

Icon undergoing RI south of PR only goes to 18hrs at 12z but i bet it would have should a major if it went out further

[SFLcane]

I'm hoping it doesn't develop, but I think there's a good chance it will. Currently don't see anything to push it toward the NW Gulf, at least. Could eventually become a Florida threat. We'll see. I'm still taking tomorrow off and will be off until Tuesday (I hope).

[SFLcane]

wxman57 whats your take on a 64 Cleo analog for this AOI?

[kevin]

12z ICON @180 hrs, 970 mb. Farther east than 06z GFS.

[toad strangler]

If this tracks south of the islands, as several of the models seem to be leaning towards, then a second long-tracking Caribbean Cruiser major isn’t out of the question. Almost the entire Caribbean is around 30C. Quite a high ceiling assuming the system can put itself together.

IRT to aspen’s point

 https://twitter.com/drkimwood/status/1829165001774678490

[Teban54]

If this tracks south of the islands, as several of the models seem to be leaning towards, then a second long-tracking Caribbean Cruiser major isn’t out of the question. Almost the entire Caribbean is around 30C. Quite a high ceiling assuming the system can put itself together.

On the other hand, a track north of Greater Antilles -- as some GEFS and EPS members are still suggesting -- can still result in a major generating a lot of ACE as it recurves, though that definitely seems much less likely now as most models are trending south. Land interaction is really the key here in terms of how strong it gets and how long it lasts (assuming it develops).

[Category5Kaiju]

It’s honestly quite fascinating that we’re talking about the possibility of multiple Caribbean cruisers; that’s not something many hurricane seasons have seen (last time this happened was 2007 with Dean and Felix)

[Cachondo23]

Do we currently have a strong High Pressure therefore almost every model keep it going west?

[SFLcane]

Do we currently have a strong High Pressure therefore almost every model keep it going west?