2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[cycloneye]

Andy has as analog 2001 based on the pressures and subtropical ssta's warmer than MDR.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1919381222024765578

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1919737032059891779

[cycloneye]

There has been warming at MDR in the past few days.

Coral Reef data



OISST data



CDAS data

[AnnularCane]

Is it just me or does there seem to be some disagreement on the MDR? Or is it just finally warming up as some predicted?

[WeatherBoy2000]

Is it just me or does there seem to be some disagreement on the MDR? Or is it just finally warming up as some predicted?

According to the Coral reef data, the mdr is currently warming up at a rapid pace:

[chaser1]

Is it just me or does there seem to be some disagreement on the MDR? Or is it just finally warming up as some predicted?

I'm with you regarding some of these early MDR SST year comparisons. Atm, I see a slightly cool E. Atlantic and an adequately warm tropical Atlantic/Caribbean. Outside of crazy excessive condition anomalies, I think there are other more important factors that ultimately determine the character of each hurricane season. Sure, a cooler Eastern Atlantic in July/August/September may well retard Cape Verde long trackers and cumulative seasonal ACE. That may or may not have implications resulting in further west developing or tracking storm tracks. As for season analogs?? I think some forcasters draw way too much weight from this type of SST analysis when you consider that
1) we're still in early May, and
2) its overly simplistic to consider seasonal outcome and frequency with the focus narrowly considering a year with excessive high SST's verses a year depicting just "warm anomalies".
3) ENSO conditions are essentially neutral and W Atlantic SST's appear forecast to be adequately warm.

Bottom line, I think it's a stretch to draw too much from this alone. I have to believe that one or two more important factors will play a bigger role toward this season's activity being suppressed or excessive.... OR simply average.

[Category5Kaiju]

Is it just me or does there seem to be some disagreement on the MDR? Or is it just finally warming up as some predicted?

I'm with you regarding some of these early MDR SST year comparisons. Atm, I see a slightly cool E. Atlantic and an adequately warm tropical Atlantic/Caribbean. Outside of crazy excessive condition anomalies, I think there are other more important factors that ultimately determine the character of each hurricane season. Sure, a cooler Eastern Atlantic in July/August/September may well retard Cape Verde long trackers and cumulative seasonal ACE. That may or may not have implications resulting in further west developing or tracking storm tracks. As for season analogs?? I think some forcasters draw way too much weight from this type of SST analysis when you consider that
1) we're still in early May, and
2) its overly simplistic to consider seasonal outcome and frequency with the focus narrowly considering a year with excessive high SST's verses a year depicting just "warm anomalies".
3) ENSO conditions are essentially neutral and W Atlantic SST's appear forecast to be adequately warm.

Bottom line, I think it's a stretch to draw too much from this alone. I have to believe that one or two more important factors will play a bigger role toward this season's activity being suppressed or excessive.... OR simply average.

So, remember last year? Yes, when August and early September were eerily quiet and people began doubting the season? The tropical Atlantic was scorching, but the upper level patterns/conditions simply weren't conducive to cyclone formation. Or the times when Florence, Michael, and Lorenzo attained peak intensity over waters that were in the low 80s F? And Pablo 2019 and Epsilon 2020 becoming hurricanes over waters below 80 F?

You can have boiling waters, but if there's a lot of shear and dry air, you're not going to get anything. You can have rather chilly waters, but if the upper level conditions are favorable, you'll get something. And remember, on a sst anomaly map, when you see white or pale blue in the tropics during hurricane season, that likely would still imply waters that are in the low 80s, meaning enough to support TCs, even powerful ones. Yes, warm ssts are absolutely a good thing for TCs. But they're not the entire picture.