Tropical Wave WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands (40/80)

[ChrisH-UK]

Good post from MIchael Lowry.

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1962863383767638380

Has anyone seen a Google Deepmind ensemble update since this Lowry tweet about the somewhat threatening 0Z 9/2 run to the Caribbean (it had 6 TCs into the E Caribbean)?

Here's this mornings run. The blue is the deep mind TC model and the green is Googles probabilistic ML model

[Teban54]

Between the Cape Cod scare on 18z GFS and the stalls near Bermuda on 0z and 6z GFS (with the 6z stalling twice), not to mention Lesser Antilles hits on other models like 0z ECMWF... The steering patterns seem more complicated than the impression you'd get from this post.

I'm watching this closely from New England.

[BobHarlem]

Good post from MIchael Lowry.
Has anyone seen a Google Deepmind ensemble update since this Lowry tweet about the somewhat threatening 0Z 9/2 run to the Caribbean (it had 6 TCs into the E Caribbean)?

which you can find here https://www.weathernerds.org/models/fnv ... latlon=Off

[LarryWx]

Good post from MIchael Lowry.
Has anyone seen a Google Deepmind ensemble update since this Lowry tweet about the somewhat threatening 0Z 9/2 run to the Caribbean (it had 6 TCs into the E Caribbean)?

https://i.imgur.com/EDTZDKw.png

which you can find here https://www.weathernerds.org/models/fnv ... latlon=Off

Bob,
Thanks for the link. This 6Z run looks even more ominous for the NE Caribbean than yesterday’s 0Z Google Deepmind as I count 12 hits there!

[BobHarlem]

Between the 3 sets of ensembles (GFS, Google, and Euro) spread is pretty wide. GFS is more north (avoids islands), Google is further west/south (most over the islands), euro is in between (some over the Caribbean islands).

[TomballEd]

What is the difference between the two Google ensembles on WxNerds?

Looking at the satellite it is still attached to the monsoon trough. I suppose 30% two day is about right.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1963245398686126378

[Teban54]

So far, 12z GFS (out to 150 hrs) is much stronger within the MDR than the last two runs, and further south and slower than all previous runs.

[Kazmit]

12z GFS is back to being strong, but similar track and timing so far. Models seem to be flip flopping on how much of an effect the TUTT will have. The Euro and ICON also show hurricanes in the MDR.

[kevin]

12z GFS passing through the edge of the eastern Herbert box.

[AutoPenalti]

12z GFS passing through the edge of the eastern Herbert box.

https://i.imgur.com/atNjd9L.png

Hey look! A random sub-tropical low that could save the day?

[cycloneye]

12z GFS much closer and stronger from the northern Leewards BVI, USVI and Puerto Rico.

[Pelicane]

Looks a stronger version of the 0z CMC run

[Stratton23]

12z GFS big yikes, much faster trough over the northern atlantic exiting the picture , trough over the SE US cuts off on this run and retrogrades SW allowing the bermuda high to build back in, this is much closer to the US so far

[Teban54]

12z GFS is back to being strong, but similar track and timing so far. Models seem to be flip flopping on how much of an effect the TUTT will have. The Euro and ICON also show hurricanes in the MDR.

Turns out that what happens afterwards couldn't be more different:

[AutoPenalti]

GFS so far a repeat of Erin so far... maybe a couple of degrees further north of the Islands, still heading WNW. No trough in sight, wow.

[BobHarlem]

Very huge left shift on the 12z GFS (gets north of the islands though)

[Stratton23]

Definitely far out, but that kind of 500 MB height pattern would most certainly result in a US hit

[kevin]

Welp, guess this run will add another few pages to the thread.

At least it'll prevent people from checking out of the season due to the recent inactivity. Remember, all it takes is one storm and 12z GFS could be that one. That being said, this is just a single bad news run and the models don't even agree on genesis yet let alone track.

[AutoPenalti]

Starting to move NW in the last frame, I wonder if it tries to pinwheel over the ULL