Major Hurricane in New York...

[Derek Ortt]

According to the NHC report, the wind of 100KT is based upon 115 m.p.h. at 850mb. If this is accurate, then the real surface winds were between 80-90KT, probably closer to 80KT.

Aloft, yes, the high rises likely did get sustained cat 1 winds. However, had Alicia brought true hurricane winds into Houston, then we probably would have seen sustained cat 2 or 3 winds aloft, providing a good test to high rises

[Normandy]

According to the NHC report, the wind of 100KT is based upon 115 m.p.h. at 850mb. If this is accurate, then the real surface winds were between 80-90KT, probably closer to 80KT.

Aloft, yes, the high rises likely did get sustained cat 1 winds. However, had Alicia brought true hurricane winds into Houston, then we probably would have seen sustained cat 2 or 3 winds aloft, providing a good test to high rises

Well an 80 KT hurricane is more believable if Houston only recieved strong TS winds....highest winds were reported at 96 mph with 127 mph gusts so that correlates with your guess. Its definitely probably then that Alicia and Claudette were close in strength.

As for a real hurricane providing a test for the skyscrapers, again I stand by my belief that a major hurricane (true cat 3 ala Jeanne or Ivan) will not level Houstons skyscrapers. I would think it would take a higher end 4 to do it (Surface winds of about 145-150 mph).

[Astro_man92]

bump

[Jim Cantore]

Ok 1938 was mentioned as was donna but I got one from 1893 that hit even closer to NYC

[Jim Cantore]

In fact the storm DID hit NYC

I reasearched it and the storm was flying at landfall from around 30-35 mph and caused heavy damage in the area

[wxmann_91]

If that storm had been a Cat 5 at positions 31-35 instead of Cat 3 then there would not be a New York City today.

[Jim Cantore]

I agree 100%

[Astro_man92]

and plus back then there wheren't skyscrapers just tall buildings they didn't have the tech the Empire State building was one of the first skyscrapers built there I think

[Hurricaneman]

it was and a cat 3 would probably tear that down

[WXFIEND]

I spoke to my dad today about this thread and he said:

there is no way a cat 3/4 hurricane (cat 5? Doubt it'd get up here anyway) would KNOCK DOWN skyscrapers or even collapse them. Even the surge idea i presented didnt' phase him.

The windows will likely get blown out and the buildings will be destroyed, but the actual BUILDINGS will not fall... they are VERY strong and have BUILT to withstand things like that (believe me - he's a mechnical engineer.)

Remember, the Empire state building was hit with a plane during WWII. No notice of that now, eh? Even WTC was built to sustain a hit from a 707.




However, he did say it'd be the worst disaster to hit this nation, would collapse the economy probably, kill tens/hundreds of thousands, and is the worse possible scenario. Storm surge would destroy everything in its path since everything here is relatively low lying, all buildings in NY/Metro NJ would be destroyed (even though they wouldn't collapse) ...


TOTAL disaster. But no, the skyscrapers would not collapse.

[Normandy]

I spoke to my dad today about this thread and he said:

there is no way a cat 3/4 hurricane (cat 5? Doubt it'd get up here anyway) would KNOCK DOWN skyscrapers or even collapse them. Even the surge idea i presented didnt' phase him.

The windows will likely get blown out and the buildings will be destroyed, but the actual BUILDINGS will not fall... they are VERY strong and have BUILT to withstand things like that (believe me - he's a mechnical engineer.)

Remember, the Empire state building was hit with a plane during WWII. No notice of that now, eh? Even WTC was built to sustain a hit from a 707.




However, he did say it'd be the worst disaster to hit this nation, would collapse the economy probably, kill tens/hundreds of thousands, and is the worse possible scenario. Storm surge would destroy everything in its path since everything here is relatively low lying, all buildings in NY/Metro NJ would be destroyed (even though they wouldn't collapse) ...


TOTAL disaster. But no, the skyscrapers would not collapse.

Yes id agree.
They would be destroyed, but not in the manner that most here think....Id probably think they would be "gutted" (All windows, siding, and portions of the buildings only sporting an inner frame - most likely the highest floors).

[Astro_man92]

umm look at these
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http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... ricalwxwhy
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http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at193804.asp
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[Derek Ortt]

The one building that may be in more danger is the Emipre State. I read that in the 38 hurricane it swayed 4 inches and that if it wer eto sway 12, it would not stand. The newer buildings were probably built with hurricanes somewhat in mind.

However, if the building is destroyed, with the frame still standing, the effect is still the same

[sellsfish]

I think the core of the disaster would be the flooding. All of the essential services for NYC are underground. Think of the economic impact of having to replace all of the phone lines and electrical lines that have been compromised by saltwater. It took 3 weeks to restore electricity to my home after Hugo. The subway and train lines also run under Manhattan. Has there been a study to see how the "third rail system" can handle a saltwater flood? What about the tunnels for automobiles? How long would it take to drain them? It would be tough for Wall Street to operate with no communication or employees.

[flnative]

The reason the Manhattan has so many skyscrapers in the first place is that the island is solid rock just below the surface. These skyscrapers are deeply embedded in the rock. Even the combination of the storm surge and the winds would not likely collapse the buildings though the damage would be massive to the contents and any poor fool in them.

[otowntiger]

It would have to move at 35 mph or greater.

And that is a normal speed for storms moving up the east coast at that lattitude.

[Normandy]

The one building that may be in more danger is the Emipre State. I read that in the 38 hurricane it swayed 4 inches and that if it wer eto sway 12, it would not stand. The newer buildings were probably built with hurricanes somewhat in mind.

However, if the building is destroyed, with the frame still standing, the effect is still the same

No it isnt really.
If a building collapses, the building it collapses on falls, and possible so on. If the frame is gutted then perhaps other buildings will survive around it (Although not likely). Yea but the effect is still the same for that ONE buildiing.

[Astro_man92]

I couldn't imagin a sky scraper failling as tal as th Twin towes the debri would not go down in a hurricane but the building that is may be Sheilding. There is so may senarios that could happen and so many laws of phisics that are called into account that no one person could imagin it all


I bileve

[yzerfan]

I agree that flooding would be the big problem. The Rockaway peninsula could get itself totally overwashed in a high storm surge storm, and if that happened, you'd probably have Kennedy airport flooded out and down for a good long time. Depending on the angle of the storm, you could see some funneling up New York Bay to the Hudson River.

[Jim Cantore]

the skyscapers could come down if floodwaters washed away the foundation