TD#9

[MortisFL]

First of all I believe it is already a 40mph to 45mph TS, even though satellite estimates show otherwise. It developed last night to a TD and looking at this all day yesterday, it's hard to believe that it didn't develop more.

Second it's getting a little better organized the past few hours. Looking at IR-2 imagery, the center appears to be on the NW of edge of the convection. Perhaps it's partly exposed now, but not completely. Dvorak numbers are up to 1.5/1.5, early this morning. so that indicates an increase in organization.

Third, I don't see some easterly shear being a significant impedement. It's the shear that comes from direction it's going that is more significant. I think this will be a hurricane by Sunday.

Agreed, I dont know why people are calling TD #9 dead.

[HurricaneJoe22]

weren't people writing off Emily before she approached the islands?.....and we all know what happened when she did that and thereafter

[MortisFL]

5 day forecast looking more west with TD #9. Keeping the system weaker as well.

NHC Discussion is going with the GFS/GFDL solution on a more westward track.

[Thunder44]

Actually looking at latest IR-2 images and visible images, they center may be further north and east than I thought. Look like it could north of convection, north 15N. Not organzing like I thought.

[wxman57]

I have a 4-image visible loop going at home. Looks like the center may be a little north of 15N - north of the convection. It's taking its time organizing. I have little doubt it will eventually become a hurricane and probably a major hurricane. That is - IF it doesn't get drawn NW-NNW in the next couple of days as the 06Z GFS is now indicating.

One thing is clear, this storm isn't likely going to threaten the Caribbean Sea as it's already north of 15N so far east in the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

One thing is clear, this storm isn't likely going to threaten the Caribbean Sea as it's already north of 15N so far east in the Atlantic.

Agree fully 57 about no threat to the islands.With my experience looking at the systems for over 35 years that form in the eastern atlantic at the latitud it is very difficult to have a strike into the islands.However my guide even with that tells me that if a system is below your latitud keep an eye on it until it passes the latitud where you are.

[wxman57]

Here's a McIdas visible image (I'm at work now). Center is clearly at 15.6N/36.4W, north of all convection. Anyone still think this is a TS? Not yet, anyway. Just goes to show you that you can't make intensity estimates very easily at night with a weak system.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene4.gif">

[cycloneye]

Here's a McIdas visible image (I'm at work now). Center is clearly at 15.6N/36.4W, north of all convection. Anyone still think this is a TS? Not yet, anyway. Just goes to show you that you can't make intensity estimates very easily at night with a weak system.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene4.gif">

57 do you think that a new center may form under convection and that exposed one vanishes with the sal to the north?

[TampaFl]

[quote="wxman57"]Here's a McIdas visible image (I'm at work now). Center is clearly at 15.6N/36.4W, north of all convection. Anyone still think this is a TS? Not yet, anyway. Just goes to show you that you can't make intensity estimates very easily at night with a weak system.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene4.gif">[img][/img]

[weatherwindow]

good morning luis....was just perusing the AFDs of miami, melbourne and key west...they are universally advertising significant high pressure/ridging during the tues-sat time frame...which could have important implications for #9/irene and, of course, fla . what we need is more latitude...from my lips to gods ear..................rich

[MortisFL]

awesome image...clearly a convectionless center

[Thunder44]

The storm may have weakened since yesterday.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS CENTERED NEAR 14.4N 36.1W...OR ABOUT
680 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AT 05/0900 UTC
MOVING WNW AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. T.D. NINE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD ENVELOPE OF CLOUDINESS WHICH CONTINUES
TO SPLITTING THE ITCZ. T.D. NINE IS ON THE S SIDE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE BUT IS APPROACHING A WEAKNESS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO STEER
T.D. NINE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11.5N-15N BETWEEN 35.5W-38W.


8:05 AM Discussion.

[MortisFL]

Discussion 8:05am...Atlantic

FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATES THAT THE SAHARAN DUST REMAINS ACROSS THE ATLC S
OF 25N...COVERING T.D. NINE...BUT THE SYSTEM APPEARS ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF BY ENTRAINING MOIST AIR FROM THE S.

$$
WALLACE

[DESTRUCTION5]

T.D. NINE IS ON THE S SIDE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE BUT IS APPROACHING A WEAKNESS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO STEER
T.D. NINE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.

Error? They mean NW track?

[cycloneye]

05/1130 UTC 15.5N 36.4W T1.5/1.5 09 -- Atlantic Ocean


Center exposed and more north in latitud meaning no Irene today.

[storms in NC]

okay we have two numbers here one is 14.4 36.1 and the other is 15.5 36.4. so which one is it?

[dgparent]

OK here is what is going to happen, not -removed-.

Since 4 of my friends and I will be in Myrtle Beach next Wed - Sun celebrating my 40th B-Day, and I have absolutley no luck, it will land somewhere close enough to MB so we can't golf for 2 or 3 days.

[Thunder44]

You can clearly see on the visible images from the floater now that the center is much further north, completely exposed and broader.

[WeatherEmperor]

Now we know. And knowing is half the battle. GI JOE!! lol

<RICKY>