TD 10...Back Again

[MWatkins]

Few things…

1. I don’t think the low level circulation has opened up. For the past few frames the low clouds have been obscured by sun glint (the reflection of the sun as it passed directly over the top of the circulation). This caused the low level features we had been following to wash out in the imagery. They are already becoming easier to see in the 15:45Z imagery.

2. The low center…which was exposed plain as day on the western side of the convective envelope…is probably tucked in beneath the eastern extent of the recent blow up of convection…either it followed the convection in or reformed there. There is still a lot of dry air around and this is limiting convective activity in the southern most bands.

3. Outflow boundaries in the low levels are not exactly a sign of intensification…but their presence does not preclude a LLC. To me…these features are just better resolved in the hi-res imagery.

This is not the most favorable environment for development…perhaps we won’t see public advisories reinitiated today…but as of now I do not believe this system has opened up or become less organized than it was earlier this morning.

MW

[gkrangers]

Few things…

1. I don’t think the low level circulation has opened up. For the past few frames the low clouds have been obscured by sun glint (the reflection of the sun as it passed directly over the top of the circulation). This caused the low level features we had been following to wash out in the imagery. They are already becoming easier to see in the 15:45Z imagery.

Agree, been noticing this with all the naked swirls lately.

2. The low center…which was exposed plain as day on the western side of the convective envelope…is probably tucked in beneath the eastern extent of the recent blow up of convection…either it followed the convection in or reformed there. There is still a lot of dry air around and this is limiting convective activity in the southern most bands.

It seems like it might be ight under that western most thunderstorm.

3. Outflow boundaries in the low levels are not exactly a sign of intensification…but their presence does not preclude a LLC. To me…these features are just better resolved in the hi-res imagery.

This is not the most favorable environment for development…perhaps we won’t see public advisories reinitiated today…but as of now I do not believe this system has opened up or become less organized than it was earlier this morning.

MW

[gatorcane]

Few things…

1. I don’t think the low level circulation has opened up. For the past few frames the low clouds have been obscured by sun glint (the reflection of the sun as it passed directly over the top of the circulation). This caused the low level features we had been following to wash out in the imagery. They are already becoming easier to see in the 15:45Z imagery.

2. The low center…which was exposed plain as day on the western side of the convective envelope…is probably tucked in beneath the eastern extent of the recent blow up of convection…either it followed the convection in or reformed there. There is still a lot of dry air around and this is limiting convective activity in the southern most bands.

3. Outflow boundaries in the low levels are not exactly a sign of intensification…but their presence does not preclude a LLC. To me…these features are just better resolved in the hi-res imagery.

This is not the most favorable environment for development…perhaps we won’t see public advisories reinitiated today…but as of now I do not believe this system has opened up or become less organized than it was earlier this morning.

MW

What about where it is going long-term?

[clfenwi]

Watching a medium zoom of the system from 1015Z-1545Z, it appears to me that the LLC reformed at the base of the 'new' convection... a westward jump of 1°/1.5° or so...

Alternatively, one could argue that there was no reformation, that the convection and LLC were merely disassociated as the LLC moved west while the convection went more north... that is plausible given the time span and the movement that the LLC had before this period...

[gatorcane]

Watching a medium zoom of the system from 1015Z-1545Z, it appears to me that the LLC reformed at the base of the 'new' convection... a westward jump of 1°/1.5° or so...

link?

[clfenwi]

Watching a medium zoom of the system from 1015Z-1545Z, it appears to me that the LLC reformed at the base of the 'new' convection... a westward jump of 1°/1.5° or so...

link?

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

[wxman57]

I'm watchng a very high resolution McIdas loop and can't really identify any tight center any more. The old center clearly dissipated now. I don't see any evidence that another center is forming beneath the new convection - and I can see every single cloud element on this imagery. No sun glint on my imagery, either. I do see a very broad low-level rotation spanning maybe 100-150 miles across.

[SouthFloridawx]

[Steve H.]

Don't think it was reformation. Just looks like its moving along at a pretty good clip. I agree with MW, hard to tell where llc is due to sun angle and it possibly being under the convection (shade). It did seem to throw out a funny "band" though. But the 16;15 shot seems to show it intact. Environment is not good right now and the globals pretty much drop it. But these feaures generally are missed by the globals. GFDL is hot, then cold on it; dissipated it again. Think its got a decent shot of recovery if the shear lessens in the next 24 hours.

[HeatherAKC]

Sure looks like XTD-10 is trying! Just not the most favorable of conditions. From that picture above it looks like a pretty good storm , noting the cloud swirl..just not quite enough though..

(edited for spelling)

[storms in NC]

If you go to the water vapor loop and zoom in you can see the llc

[jabber]

I'm watchng a very high resolution McIdas loop and can't really identify any tight center any more. The old center clearly dissipated now. I don't see any evidence that another center is forming beneath the new convection - and I can see every single cloud element on this imagery. No sun glint on my imagery, either. I do see a very broad low-level rotation spanning maybe 100-150 miles across.

I have to agree, I see not LLC just a very broad area of circulation. Dam shear needs to let up a bit...

[jabber]

Sorry double post

[gkrangers]

If you go to the water vapor loop and zoom in you can see the llc

?????????????????????????????????????????

[Sanibel]

So what do you all think? Will it redevelop further west?

Track looks west towards northern islands...

[x-y-no]

Bouy 41040, located at 14.5N 53W, has west winds at 8 knots.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

That's about 150NM SSE of the apparent center.

[storms in NC]

If you go to the water vapor loop and zoom in you can see the llc

?????????????????????????????????????????

around 19 north 51 west. just my guess

[x-y-no]

So what do you all think? Will it redevelop further west?

Track looks west towards northern islands...

The track seems to be around 280 or so just now, but looking ahead, I think the steering flow has more northerly component, so maybe more like 300 by tonight.

That ought to keep it north of the islands with no trouble.

[x-y-no]

If you go to the water vapor loop and zoom in you can see the llc

?????????????????????????????????????????

around 19 north 51 west. just my guess

No ... not even close. More like 16.5N 54W

[WeatherEmperor]

I personally wouldnt mind for it to fall apart. It could just die a slow and painful death.

<RICKY>