TD12 Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[SkeetoBite]

[Sanibel]

Center just south of San Salvador near 24-75

[jasons2k]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

Hard to argue with this

The only arguement that could be made is the initialization. I think the center is north of there on the other side of that island.

Yeah, I suppose the point was that since the initialization is the same, it's concrete. In reality that doesn't mean much, especially with a disorganized/new system. I think it's further south.....my reasons are above...but I concede that the 'north' option has merit; it could end up being just about anywhere. I don't think we'll really know for sure until it gets better organized.

[mvtrucking]

Yeah, there's um... some slight disagreements in the shear forecasts for the GOM.

Compare 12Z GFS at 72h

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=072hr

with 12Z Canadian at 72h

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=072hr

Why such a wide disparity between the two? Any idea?

[gkrangers]

Ok, please could someone in the know tell me why on earth the GFS is going in the opposite direction to all the other models, most of them have a bend towards the west on approach to S FL??? Does it have something to do with a weakness in the ridge that the GFS is reading and the others are not?

18z GFS

Between 48 and 108 hours...it moves the storm VERY VERY slowly from just offshore Vero Beach area, westward towards Lake Okeechobee.

*sigh*

120 hours still over Lake Okeechobee area.

138 hours offshore Daytona Beach. (Yay right over me.)

So..the GFS is still on its own...I'll look at the upper air more closely to see if I can tell why.

Ok..looking at the 500mb high pressure....in general, there is going to be one area over LA, and one area northeast of the Bahamas. TD12 is going to be in between these...very very weak steering currents, which may be why the storm just kinda chills out over Florida for a few days. By 130+ hours, the SW atlantic ridge starts to strengthen and the SSW flow on the western extent gets stronger, scooting the storm to the NNE.

Thats just my rough, novice analysis, of the 500mb18z gfs maps.

[JPmia]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

Hard to argue with this

The only arguement that could be made is the initialization. I think the center is north of there on the other side of that island.

Yeah, I suppose the point was that since the initialization is the same, it's concrete. In reality that doesn't mean much, especially with a disorganized/new system. I think it's further south.....my reasons are above...but I concede that the 'north' option has merit; it could end up being just about anywhere. I don't think we'll really know for sure until it gets better organized.

No, I meant that it was hard to argue with that project track by those models.

[Sanibel]

This is highly unusual. I am also seeing a possible second center vortex nearer to Cuba.

Remember the "foot" of the convection usually holds the center.


Totally confused now and watching...

[Amanzi]

Ok, please could someone in the know tell me why on earth the GFS is going in the opposite direction to all the other models, most of them have a bend towards the west on approach to S FL??? Does it have something to do with a weakness in the ridge that the GFS is reading and the others are not?

18z GFS

Between 48 and 108 hours...it moves the storm VERY VERY slowly from just offshore Vero Beach area, westward towards Lake Okeechobee.

*sigh*

120 hours still over Lake Okeechobee area.

138 hours offshore Daytona Beach. (Yay right over me.)

So..the GFS is still on its own...I'll look at the upper air more closely to see if I can tell why.

Great thanks for the response Let me know what you see when you look closely

[skysummit]

This is highly unusual. I am also seeing a possible second center vortex nearer to Cuba.

Remember the "foot" of the convection usually holds the center.


Totally confused now and watching...

Yup...I see way too many centers.

[HURAKAN]

I just want a few gusty winds and a couple of inches of rain.

[jasons2k]

This is highly unusual. I am also seeing a possible second center vortex nearer to Cuba.

Remember the "foot" of the convection usually holds the center.


Totally confused now and watching...

I agree with you Sanibel. The center closer to Cuba has been the more dominant one all day. I think the ones to the N are temporary vortices caught up in the Easterly flow around the N and NE periphery. I would not be surprised to see a center relocation out of the NHC.

[Sanibel]

Keep Keys Gulf Stream bomber in mind guys...

[Rainband]

Remember all the TS that formed over Cuba last night. When it gets dark we will know whats going on.

[x-y-no]

I think the 12z and 18z GFS runs are totally wacked. It's doing it's same old trick of underestimating the ridging.

[hicksta]

Yall, its a TD. we wont have a strong idea where it is going till a few days.

[WeatherEmperor]

I think the 12z and 18z GFS runs are totally wacked. It's doing it's same old trick of underestimating the ridging.

now why does that sound so familiar to me?

<RICKY>

[Scorpion]

It will be in FL in the next few days.

[Sanibel]

TD12 Dynamics


Something is happening right now that really needs discussion.


The tight center they intialized could be a strong bursting vortex related to the tight and compact ULL ingrained into the north section of the depression. (I'm pretty sure it is)

The real center is possibly coming together closer to Cuba near 22N-76.5W

[dwg71]

TD12 Dynamics


Something is happening right now that really needs discussion.


The tight center they intialized could be a strong bursting vortex related to the tight and compact ULL ingrained into the north section of the depression. (I'm pretty sure it is)

The real center is possibly coming together closer to Cuba near 22N-76.5W

Convection is bursting near northern center, and dying to the south. The south area that you are referring to is moving towards the WSW, which is contrary to models,climo, and NHC. The other is moving WNW in line with NHC, models and climo...

Just how I see it...

[jasons2k]

TD12 Dynamics


Something is happening right now that really needs discussion.


The tight center they intialized could be a strong bursting vortex related to the tight and compact ULL ingrained into the north section of the depression. (I'm pretty sure it is)

The real center is possibly coming together closer to Cuba near 22N-76.5W

I really think you are onto something here - wish some pro mets would weigh in on this - I'm a not a likin' what I see - my father lives in Big Pine and his attitude is "ahh, it's going well north of us" - I'm not convinced of that at all...