TS Katrina,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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- Cape Verde
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- SouthFloridawx
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Recurve wrote:Brian Norcross just mentioned (6 p.m.) that some models show a westward bend in the track before landfall, while "some models" show a "strong" westward bend, bringing the center to Dade County rather than farther north. He showed that the recent movement, in any case, has been NW.
what channel is norcross on in Miami?
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southfloridawx2005 wrote:Recurve wrote:Brian Norcross just mentioned (6 p.m.) that some models show a westward bend in the track before landfall, while "some models" show a "strong" westward bend, bringing the center to Dade County rather than farther north. He showed that the recent movement, in any case, has been NW.
what channel is norcross on in Miami?
CBS4 so its either channel 3 or channel 4 depending on your TV cable provider.
<RICKY>
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- SouthFloridawx
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- southerngale
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Brent wrote:hurricanefreak1988 wrote:Katrina, you have such a lovely name, but please don't bother me here in NC. If you had been a small Category 1 hurricane, then I would've opened the door and welcomed you. But now, I'm worried you're going to be the first remnant TD of the season to stop by here, and those are always annoying, considering the amount of rain they dump on us.
Sheesh, I'm talking to a tropical storm. Do I have issues or what?
We all do it... we just don't talk about it.
Lies! Nothing but lies!!
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- deltadog03
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In theory it would all depend on how it deepens. A rapid deepening would quickly change the course of this storm. A la GFDL (Always so Bullish, but has had a good call with deepening(Charley)) the GFDL is a good indicator that any rapid deepening may have a more W path due to what has been discussed as a pretty good ridge at upper levels while mid levels are questionably weak, but will be filled.
If this deepens according to GFDL to 980mb in 12 hours and looking at the anticyclone starting to move east behind the trough on WV, this could move slight WSW and then W. Otherwise the forcast envelope of UKMET will more or less verify.
Its elongated from E/W by ridging, but more so because of the low off to its SW. I'm guessing that all rides on how our storm deepens, and I would probobly go out on a limb between the UKMET and the GFDL with a 90 MPH Catagory 1 somewhere North of FT.Lauderdale.
If this deepens according to GFDL to 980mb in 12 hours and looking at the anticyclone starting to move east behind the trough on WV, this could move slight WSW and then W. Otherwise the forcast envelope of UKMET will more or less verify.
Its elongated from E/W by ridging, but more so because of the low off to its SW. I'm guessing that all rides on how our storm deepens, and I would probobly go out on a limb between the UKMET and the GFDL with a 90 MPH Catagory 1 somewhere North of FT.Lauderdale.
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WeatherEmperor wrote:southfloridawx2005 wrote:Recurve wrote:Brian Norcross just mentioned (6 p.m.) that some models show a westward bend in the track before landfall, while "some models" show a "strong" westward bend, bringing the center to Dade County rather than farther north. He showed that the recent movement, in any case, has been NW.
what channel is norcross on in Miami?
CBS4 so its either channel 3 or channel 4 depending on your TV cable provider.
<RICKY>
well it better head 270 asap if that dade track is going to verify
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jlauderdal wrote:WeatherEmperor wrote:southfloridawx2005 wrote:Recurve wrote:Brian Norcross just mentioned (6 p.m.) that some models show a westward bend in the track before landfall, while "some models" show a "strong" westward bend, bringing the center to Dade County rather than farther north. He showed that the recent movement, in any case, has been NW.
what channel is norcross on in Miami?
CBS4 so its either channel 3 or channel 4 depending on your TV cable provider.
<RICKY>
well it better head 270 asap if that dade track is going to verify
I dont think its gonna go do Dade county at all. Its already too far north. It has to take a very sharp turn to the West right now as we speak for that to happen.
<RICKY>
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- SouthFloridawx
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- Hyperstorm
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Sanibel wrote:The "Fist"...
I was starting to notice that as well. The storm is traversing over the WARMEST waters of the ENTIRE Atlantic Basin. Have you ever been to the Bahamas? The waters are bath-like (seriously) this time of year.
Convection is exploding in a burst right over the presumed LLC. This thing has no other way to go, but UP. Outflow is MUCH more impressive than what I thought it would be (air is evacuating tremendously on all sides), so this system could very well become a rapid developer during the next 24 hours.
After these convection explosions during the night go on, a CDO generally develops. Once that happens, we could see an eye developing. That's when the real-intensification could take place. It is entirely possible to have a 975mb storm it moves into the Florida coastline.
Gulf Stream favorability only indicates strengthening...
Last edited by Hyperstorm on Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- wxman57
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Here's an image I just made in GARP with 1-deg lat/lon lines on radar. The center is now fully-visible on the Miami extended-range radar. It appears to be near 25.9N/77.4W. Note that another image 10 minutes later than this one indicates the center closer to 26N/77.4W. Now that the center is coming into full view, I'll be able to use GARP to plot positions and calculate a heading/speed.
<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/katrina14.gif">
<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/katrina14.gif">
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- Hyperstorm
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Another thing...
This storm is TRAPPED between an Upper-Level Low SW of Florida and an Upper-Level Low several hundred miles to its East. This scenario is VERY disturbing for its past history. There has been studies done which indicate that an ULL to the SE/SW of a storm is indicative of potential rapid strengthening. This one has TWO ULLs that are channeling the outflow more so than normal. The only inhibitor for this system to become a powerful hurricane is TIME. If the system slows down more than expected or even stalls offshore, instead of inland, we could be in for a problem.
I'm saying all of this for the people who are calling this system a "wave" or saying that it's weakening. That cannot be further away from reality. Everyone in South Florida SHOULD prepare for a hurricane one category above of what it is forecasted...
This storm is TRAPPED between an Upper-Level Low SW of Florida and an Upper-Level Low several hundred miles to its East. This scenario is VERY disturbing for its past history. There has been studies done which indicate that an ULL to the SE/SW of a storm is indicative of potential rapid strengthening. This one has TWO ULLs that are channeling the outflow more so than normal. The only inhibitor for this system to become a powerful hurricane is TIME. If the system slows down more than expected or even stalls offshore, instead of inland, we could be in for a problem.
I'm saying all of this for the people who are calling this system a "wave" or saying that it's weakening. That cannot be further away from reality. Everyone in South Florida SHOULD prepare for a hurricane one category above of what it is forecasted...
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18z GFS, stall along the FL east coast and then right up along the whole SE coast............
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

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