TS Katrina,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Cape Verde
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#181 Postby Cape Verde » Wed Aug 24, 2005 5:10 pm

I'm curious why the official NHC forecast has Katrina turning so sharply northward after entering the Gulf. I guess they have the northern ridge receding, but it's a big shift from the projected track this morning.
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#182 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 24, 2005 5:15 pm

Recurve wrote:Brian Norcross just mentioned (6 p.m.) that some models show a westward bend in the track before landfall, while "some models" show a "strong" westward bend, bringing the center to Dade County rather than farther north. He showed that the recent movement, in any case, has been NW.


what channel is norcross on in Miami?
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#183 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Aug 24, 2005 5:17 pm

southfloridawx2005 wrote:
Recurve wrote:Brian Norcross just mentioned (6 p.m.) that some models show a westward bend in the track before landfall, while "some models" show a "strong" westward bend, bringing the center to Dade County rather than farther north. He showed that the recent movement, in any case, has been NW.


what channel is norcross on in Miami?


CBS4 so its either channel 3 or channel 4 depending on your TV cable provider.

<RICKY>
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#184 Postby Sanibel » Wed Aug 24, 2005 5:23 pm

The "Fist"...
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#185 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 24, 2005 5:25 pm

Local Mets are Saying that Katrina Center is now to the north of the 5 PM nhc center.

26N
77.3W

Image
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#186 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 24, 2005 5:26 pm

:slime: :blowup:
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#187 Postby southerngale » Wed Aug 24, 2005 5:28 pm

Brent wrote:
hurricanefreak1988 wrote:Katrina, you have such a lovely name, but please don't bother me here in NC. If you had been a small Category 1 hurricane, then I would've opened the door and welcomed you. But now, I'm worried you're going to be the first remnant TD of the season to stop by here, and those are always annoying, considering the amount of rain they dump on us. :roll:

Sheesh, I'm talking to a tropical storm. Do I have issues or what? :lol:


We all do it... we just don't talk about it. :eek:


Lies! Nothing but lies!!
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#188 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 24, 2005 5:32 pm

yeah, i agree...near 26 and like 78?
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#189 Postby SapphireSea » Wed Aug 24, 2005 5:33 pm

In theory it would all depend on how it deepens. A rapid deepening would quickly change the course of this storm. A la GFDL (Always so Bullish, but has had a good call with deepening(Charley)) the GFDL is a good indicator that any rapid deepening may have a more W path due to what has been discussed as a pretty good ridge at upper levels while mid levels are questionably weak, but will be filled.

If this deepens according to GFDL to 980mb in 12 hours and looking at the anticyclone starting to move east behind the trough on WV, this could move slight WSW and then W. Otherwise the forcast envelope of UKMET will more or less verify.

Its elongated from E/W by ridging, but more so because of the low off to its SW. I'm guessing that all rides on how our storm deepens, and I would probobly go out on a limb between the UKMET and the GFDL with a 90 MPH Catagory 1 somewhere North of FT.Lauderdale.
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#190 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Aug 24, 2005 5:33 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
southfloridawx2005 wrote:
Recurve wrote:Brian Norcross just mentioned (6 p.m.) that some models show a westward bend in the track before landfall, while "some models" show a "strong" westward bend, bringing the center to Dade County rather than farther north. He showed that the recent movement, in any case, has been NW.


what channel is norcross on in Miami?


CBS4 so its either channel 3 or channel 4 depending on your TV cable provider.

<RICKY>


well it better head 270 asap if that dade track is going to verify
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#191 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Aug 24, 2005 5:59 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
southfloridawx2005 wrote:
Recurve wrote:Brian Norcross just mentioned (6 p.m.) that some models show a westward bend in the track before landfall, while "some models" show a "strong" westward bend, bringing the center to Dade County rather than farther north. He showed that the recent movement, in any case, has been NW.


what channel is norcross on in Miami?


CBS4 so its either channel 3 or channel 4 depending on your TV cable provider.

<RICKY>


well it better head 270 asap if that dade track is going to verify


I dont think its gonna go do Dade county at all. Its already too far north. It has to take a very sharp turn to the West right now as we speak for that to happen.

<RICKY>
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#192 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:01 pm

its not going to dade... it could go from northern broward tp martin county.


This is not an official forcast!!!!
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#193 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:01 pm

i posted this in another thread...dr.lyons said that it could track just south of due west for a bit as well...he used the miami lat..as an example
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#194 Postby Hyperstorm » Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:06 pm

Sanibel wrote:The "Fist"...


I was starting to notice that as well. The storm is traversing over the WARMEST waters of the ENTIRE Atlantic Basin. Have you ever been to the Bahamas? The waters are bath-like (seriously) this time of year.

Convection is exploding in a burst right over the presumed LLC. This thing has no other way to go, but UP. Outflow is MUCH more impressive than what I thought it would be (air is evacuating tremendously on all sides), so this system could very well become a rapid developer during the next 24 hours.

After these convection explosions during the night go on, a CDO generally develops. Once that happens, we could see an eye developing. That's when the real-intensification could take place. It is entirely possible to have a 975mb storm it moves into the Florida coastline.

Gulf Stream favorability only indicates strengthening...
Last edited by Hyperstorm on Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#195 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:07 pm

Here's an image I just made in GARP with 1-deg lat/lon lines on radar. The center is now fully-visible on the Miami extended-range radar. It appears to be near 25.9N/77.4W. Note that another image 10 minutes later than this one indicates the center closer to 26N/77.4W. Now that the center is coming into full view, I'll be able to use GARP to plot positions and calculate a heading/speed.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/katrina14.gif">
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#196 Postby Rainband » Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:13 pm

Thanks chris
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#197 Postby Hyperstorm » Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:22 pm

Another thing...

This storm is TRAPPED between an Upper-Level Low SW of Florida and an Upper-Level Low several hundred miles to its East. This scenario is VERY disturbing for its past history. There has been studies done which indicate that an ULL to the SE/SW of a storm is indicative of potential rapid strengthening. This one has TWO ULLs that are channeling the outflow more so than normal. The only inhibitor for this system to become a powerful hurricane is TIME. If the system slows down more than expected or even stalls offshore, instead of inland, we could be in for a problem.

I'm saying all of this for the people who are calling this system a "wave" or saying that it's weakening. That cannot be further away from reality. Everyone in South Florida SHOULD prepare for a hurricane one category above of what it is forecasted...
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#198 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:26 pm

Yes, it has the look that it wants to bomb.
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#199 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:26 pm

18z GFS, stall along the FL east coast and then right up along the whole SE coast............

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation


:roll:
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#200 Postby MortisFL » Wed Aug 24, 2005 6:26 pm

Its moving more west now
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