99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

KatDaddy · #181 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 9:15 am

Joe B free column today.

I must say he very good with patterns but not specifics when we are 36 hours from a landfall. Monster ridge and NW Caribbean development into the GOM........deja vu?!

Excerpt from column:

.) MONSTER RIDGE WITH POTENTIAL NEAR-RECORD WARMTH DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST COAST BY THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A surge of warmth that would do August proud engulfs much of the East over the weekend and early next week.

4.) Tropical troubles:

a.) Western Caribbean development later in the week with a move to the Gulf over the weekend and next week.

b.) Atlantic wave may threaten the East Coast under a big high in shortcut fashion next week. Pattern pulse favors plenty of large-scale convection in the Tropics.

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promotion.a ... ree_column

#182 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 9:22 am

4.) Tropical troubles:

a.) Western Caribbean development later in the week with a move to the Gulf over the weekend and next week.

b.) Atlantic wave may threaten the East Coast under a big high in shortcut fashion next week. Pattern pulse favors plenty of large-scale convection in the Tropics.

#183 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 9:24 am

It just doesn't end does it? I wonder if they'll change the colors of hurricane warnings and watches to green and red to keep with the Christmas spirit in a few months.

#184 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 9:24 am

It just doesn't end does it? I wonder if they'll change the colors of hurricane warnings and watches to green and red to keep with the Christmas spirit in a few months

#185 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 9:25 am

skysummit wrote:It just doesn't end does it? I wonder if they'll change the colors of hurricane warnings and watches to green and red to keep with the Christmas spirit in a few months.

That's funny. Imagine, the snowman waving the hurricane flag in South Florida. :lol:

#186 Postby **MBismyPlayground** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 9:26 am

KatDaddy wrote:Joe B free column today.

b.) Atlantic wave may threaten the East Coast under a big high in shortcut fashion next week. Pattern pulse favors plenty of large-scale convection in the Tropics.

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promotion.a ... ree_column

Can someone explain to me what a "short cut fashion" is?????

inotherwords · #187 Postby **inotherwords** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 9:31 am

Bastardi is to meteorology what shockjocks are to radio.

#188 Postby **MWatkins** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 9:34 am

If I think back to the meteorologists I respect the most, they all have at least one thing in common. They have (or had) a calming presence when delivering bad weather news. Even Neil Frank…who was so energetic when taking his message to the public in the 70’s, was deliberate and calming when explaining where Allen and Frederick and others were heading.

However…there was a private company meteorologist on FOX this weekend who looked downright maniacal. I am not kidding…it was frightening.

I really don’t believe you can be successful if you rile people up when delivering bad news. Just my opinion. So as far as any hype mongers are concerned...I am not going to gauge my level of concern on their level of concern.

So as for this invest…I’ll be watching for the recon plan to see just how concerned the NHC is with this system:

0 flights = not too
0 flights with a possible on Wednesday = low
1 flight tomorrow = moderate
2 flights and 12 hour fixes = very

MW

#189 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 9:40 am

NOUS42 KNHC 261430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
1030 AM EDT MON 26 SEP 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z SEP 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-121

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE INVEST AT 28/18Z
NEAR 18N 81W.

MWatkins here is what you said about they having interest or not in this system.

#190 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 9:52 am

#191 Postby **MWatkins** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 9:57 am

cycloneye wrote:NOUS42 KNHC 261430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
1030 AM EDT MON 26 SEP 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z SEP 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-121

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE INVEST AT 28/18Z
NEAR 18N 81W.

MWatkins here is what you said about they having interest or not in this system.

Thanks Luis...there you have it...some concern from the NHC.

As for comparing the NHC models to the invest point mentioned...remember thhose models are run with the idea that there is already a preexisting tropical depression...which we dont have right now...vs. an open wave...which we do have now. This is going to create a different solution set.

MW

#192 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:07 am

ABNT20 KNHC 261458
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS NOW INDICATE SOME PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...BUT THE WEATHER AREA IS CURRENTLY BROAD AND DISORGANIZED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION...BUT COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

#193 Postby **cjrciadt** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:09 am

You can throw these models out this early on.

Website · #194 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:10 am

Here we go again... :coaster:

canegrl04 · #195 Postby **canegrl04** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:12 am

Earlytrend is toward the GOM :roll:

I don't even want to think about another hurricane hitting LA

MiamiensisWx · #196 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:14 am

There is some good news... conditions are expected to remain very unfavorable in parts of the northwest Caribbean and around Florida and the Bahamas. Shear is increasing in those areas. However, conditions are expected to become more favorable possibly in the western Gulf of Mexico.

Anonymous · #197 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:22 am

CapeVerdeWave wrote:There is some good news... conditions are expected to remain very unfavorable in parts of the northwest Caribbean and around Florida and the Bahamas. Shear is increasing in those areas. However, conditions are expected to become more favorable possibly in the western Gulf of Mexico.

Ok...

Shear is not currently favorable in the NW Caribbean...but should gradually become more favorable over the next few days. I don't think this is getting past Florida...

#198 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:26 am

~Floydbuster wrote:
CapeVerdeWave wrote:There is some good news... conditions are expected to remain very unfavorable in parts of the northwest Caribbean and around Florida and the Bahamas. Shear is increasing in those areas. However, conditions are expected to become more favorable possibly in the western Gulf of Mexico.

Ok...

Shear is not currently favorable in the NW Caribbean...but should gradually become more favorable over the next few days. I don't think this is getting past Florida...

So you think that the front will pick it up?

#199 Postby **seaswing** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:28 am

~Floydbuster wrote:
CapeVerdeWave wrote:There is some good news... conditions are expected to remain very unfavorable in parts of the northwest Caribbean and around Florida and the Bahamas. Shear is increasing in those areas. However, conditions are expected to become more favorable possibly in the western Gulf of Mexico.

Ok...

Shear is not currently favorable in the NW Caribbean...but should gradually become more favorable over the next few days. I don't think this is getting past Florida...

Floydbuster---Do you mean that Florida is in its way therefore it will go there? just a little confusing to me....

MiamiensisWx · #200 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 10:29 am

skysummit wrote:So you think that the front will pick it up?

If that happens and/or the system passes near or over Florida, there will likely be shear to prevent it from rapidly strengthening. Although the shear in the northwest Caribbean is expected to gradually decrease, unfavorable shear is expected to persist over Florida and in the Bahamas.

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