98L Invest Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[floridahurricaneguy]

So is it possible it would just brush central america and that bounce back towards western florida. I guess at this early stage what are the highest risk areas?

Matt

[hial2]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The red spot with the black center (heavy heavy rain) just west of Jamaica could be a monster cane in its embrionic stage..Reminds me a lot of Gilbert, with the speed of development and its 170 mph winds..BTW, I dont think it's headed anywhere near the Yucatan..I think it will go somewhere between the Yucatan Channel and then go east, or else thru Cuba and South Fla-Bahamas area

[CHRISTY]

[img]The steering layer for a 1000mb circulation essentially cannot be defined -- since the developing
system is still just part of the upper level TROF that has been around for the past 10 days. But the
water vapor imagery loop still seems to show the high pressure system over the Gulf tending to shift
further eastward -- which would favor a more NNE drift.
[/img]

[skysummit]

I think we'll still be talking about this in 3 days while it's still generally in the same area.

[Brent]

I think we'll still be talking about this in 3 days while it's still generally in the same area.

May still be in the same spot in 5 days...

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think the Euro has the best overall Idea based on the current pattern.

[CHRISTY]

that is exactly what i fear that with this slow movement it will give it a chance for one of these fronts to pick it up and push it towards florida....

[O Town]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation



GFDL makes this thing a cat3 in 3 days and turns it into a cat 4 in 6 days out. And at the last minute after brushing Central America it makes a north turn. Still far away, but this thing has potential to effect the states. I think it will deffinatley be our Wilma. A little unexpected for me. Thought our major canes were over, hopefully they are.

[cycloneye]

00:00z Model Guidance graphic.

[Valkhorn]

Um, the GDFL turns it into a category 5 stalling near the area of Mitch.

[CHRISTY]

wow those model sink the system towards the south! i really dont trust those models because this sytem is not fully developed yet....

[wxman57]

18Z GFDL takes it nearly to a Cat 5 with a 911 mb pressure in 5 days. Looks reasonable if it can get spinning. I see nothing to prevent it from becoming a major hurricane. Have to watch those hurricanes with names ending in "a" this year.

There are a couple of long-term possibilities. It looks like the current weak steering currents get even weaker with time. So it's not going anywehre fast. Could do a Michelle after 7-8 days and get picked up by a front then move NNE-NE, possibly toward the FL Peninsula. Or it could do a Mitch and meander westward, eventually moving into Central America.

HOUR: .0 LONG: -77.22 LAT: 18.49 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.05 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 26.79
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -77.55 LAT: 18.25 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.57 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.30
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -77.96 LAT: 17.91 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.06 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.19
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -78.36 LAT: 18.01 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.08 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.57
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -79.01 LAT: 18.06 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.59 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.63
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -79.62 LAT: 18.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.39 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.78
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -79.87 LAT: 18.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 976.76 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.32
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -80.14 LAT: 18.38 MIN PRESS (hPa): 970.04 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 81.95
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -80.58 LAT: 18.32 MIN PRESS (hPa): 962.15 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.39
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -80.72 LAT: 18.05 MIN PRESS (hPa): 955.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 91.77
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -80.70 LAT: 17.75 MIN PRESS (hPa): 951.27 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 99.39
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -80.82 LAT: 17.59 MIN PRESS (hPa): 941.59 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):108.90
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -80.89 LAT: 17.49 MIN PRESS (hPa): 937.14 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):111.36
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -81.12 LAT: 17.31 MIN PRESS (hPa): 936.57 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):111.83
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -81.60 LAT: 17.05 MIN PRESS (hPa): 933.63 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):115.28
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -82.11 LAT: 16.87 MIN PRESS (hPa): 926.77 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):119.70
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -82.52 LAT: 16.62 MIN PRESS (hPa): 923.33 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):121.69
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -82.86 LAT: 16.37 MIN PRESS (hPa): 918.84 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):124.83
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -83.12 LAT: 16.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 912.81 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):131.26
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -83.43 LAT: 16.18 MIN PRESS (hPa): 910.92 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):131.44
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -83.65 LAT: 16.39 MIN PRESS (hPa): 912.65 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):129.71
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -83.88 LAT: 16.53 MIN PRESS (hPa): 913.22 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):130.38

[JTD]

Dude, you gotta love that LBAR. It always without fail shows a NE track.

[CHRISTY]

hey pro met whats your gut feeling on this?where do you think this will end up.. wont this slow movement be very important to its feature track... wont this slow movement give this sytem a chance to get shoved NNE because of a front?

[Brent]

18Z GFDL takes it nearly to a Cat 5 with a 911 mb pressure in 5 days. Looks reasonable if it can get spinning. I see nothing to prevent it from becoming a major hurricane. Have to watch those hurricanes with names ending in "a" this year.

There are a couple of long-term possibilities. It looks like the current weak steering currents get even weaker with time. So it's not going anywehre fast. Could do a Michelle after 7-8 days and get picked up by a front then move NNE-NE, possibly toward the FL Peninsula. Or it could do a Mitch and meander westward, eventually moving into Central America.

That is just lovely...

Katrina... Rita... Wilma. Oh Geez.

[CHRISTY]

[thunderchief]

Um, the GDFL turns it into a category 5 stalling near the area of Mitch.

thats exactly what that area needs after stan.


...however intensity modelling cant really be trusted at all this far out for something that has yet to organize.

[Derek Ortt]

I do not like the looks of this.

Development fairly certain

NW Carib and FL Peninsula need to watch this closely

[CHRISTY]

[img]A broad 1005 mb low pressure area centered just south of the island of Jamaica continues to become better organized tonight. The areal coverage of the deep convection continues to increase, and a very impressive thunderstorm blow-up with very cold cloud tops has appeared just east of the island. Upper-level outflow has now appeared on the west and north sides of the system, and an upper level anti-cyclone has developed on top. Wind shear continues to drop, but more slowly than this afternoon, and is still in the 5 - 10 knot range. All these factors support continued development, and a tropical depression is likely to form here by Sunday. One complicating factor may be the presence of Jamaica so close to where the center is trying to form. This may slow development by half a day or so at most, since Jamaica is a relatively small island.

Global computer models forecast that the shear will continue to decrease over the area Saturday and Sunday, and the disturbance is expected to stay in the central or western Caribbean for at least the next five days, which would give ample time for this system to grow into a hurricane. The latest 18Z (2pm EDT) run of the GFS model is very unimpressed with this system, and keeps it a weak disturbance that gets swept up in a trough and pulled northeastward into the Bahamas. While this track is certainly possible, the GFS is probably underdoing the intensity. The environment this system is embedded in is very favorable for intensification into a hurricane. However, the 18Z run of the GFDL model is definitely overdone; it brings the system up to hurricane strength Saturday night, and then to a major hurricane by mid-week as it slowly tracks towards Honduras or Belize. While the GFDL is bringing this system to hurricane strength too fast, it does have the right idea about this potentially being a major hurricane. I believe that if this system stays in the western Caribbean for the next five days, the chances of it becoming a major hurricane are good. The GFDL had a very similar idea with Hurricane Rita--only it was too fast with its intensity forecast, and Rita ended up being a major hurricane three days after the GFDL originally forecasted this to happen.

It bears repeating that the eventual track of any tropical storm or hurricane that forms is impossible to forecast with any reliability, since steering currents are very weak and a some erratic motion is likely. The UKMET and NOGAPS models favor a track towards Honduras and Belize, while the GFS takes the system northeast across Cuba and the Bahamas. The early track models (i.e., BAM, LBAR and VICBAR models) have not been run yet for this system, but I will post them when they become available. If this system does eventually affect the U.S., the most likely target would be the Florida Keys or southwest Florida, as there are many troughs of low pressure whizzing by that would grab this system and steer it to the northeast once it got far enough north.
[/img]

[txwatcher91]

Yeah Derek, I agree with you, if it does develop, it could develop very quickly. Look at the heat potential

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5286ca.jpg