TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[fasterdisaster]

Slow, not slow..WTF? Bottom Line is we will most likely be looking at a Cat 3 + in 4 days ...No more questions asked..There is nothing that will Impede strengthening here..

I agree.

[MiamiensisWx]

Even though the current GFDL and some other model runs don't indicate as much strengthening as previously, things can change.

[Blown Away]

Looks like a typical October track towards FL. A typical track would take it N through Cuba then turn NE to ENE near/through the Keys and E of the Fl peninsula. Another would take it through the the peninsula, similar to Irene 99'. Or N through Cuba and then E of FL then through Bahamas. Any guess on which one??

[fasterdisaster]

Even though the current GFDL and some other model runs don't indicate as much strengthening as previously, things can change.

Yes, and I have seen many times where the GFDL is too bullish, shows significantly less strengthening than before, and then upgrades the forecast higher again.

[fasterdisaster]

From the discussion:

THE CYCLONE IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES AND DOES NOT YET HAVE
VERY MUCH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER... BUT OUTER
BANDING FEATURES SEEM TO BE GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING. THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ENVELOPE IS WELL-ESTABLISHED... AS IS UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. A 23Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS HAD SOME 30-35 KT
VECTORS THAT ARE PROBABLY RAIN CONTAMINATED... SO THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT.

So it IS organizing!

[MiamiensisWx]

Yes, and I have seen many times where the GFDL is too bullish, shows significantly less strengthening than before, and then upgrades the forecast higher again.

True... also, after the GFDL is bullish and then forecasts much less strengthening, the system, although it may not always get as strong as previously bullishly forecasted, it often may get a good amount stronger than what the GFDL forecasts after reducing it's intensity forecast. Still, the GFDL is a good model.

[fasterdisaster]

Yes, and I have seen many times where the GFDL is too bullish, shows significantly less strengthening than before, and then upgrades the forecast higher again.

True... also, after the GFDL is bullish and then forecasts much less strengthening, the system, although it may not always get as strong as previously bullishly forecasted, it often may get a good amount stronger than what the GFDL forecasts after reducing it's intensity forecast. Still, the GFDL is a good model.

Yes

[Amanzi]

Hopefully it will cross Cuba over the mountains and its center will get shredded! Not to wish damnation on the people of Cuba.

[f5]

NHC says "slowly organizing" on the 11pm advisory.

Actually they say gradually organizing!!!

the second coming of Charley?

[krysof]

Hopefully it will cross Cuba over the mountains and its center will get shredded! Not to wish damnation on the people of Cuba.

it would not get destroyed since Cuba is easy to get across because of its small width

[CHRISTY]

this situation looks very scary tonight everything that iam reading shows this a southflorida event... how strong who knows but if the GFDL is right southflorida is in trouble?opinions?? things can change so we will see.

[thunderchief]

Hopefully it will cross Cuba over the mountains and its center will get shredded! Not to wish damnation on the people of Cuba.

it would not get destroyed since Cuba is easy to get across because of its small width

Central cuba has mountains and can take big bites out of storms

Dennis went from 4 to 1.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Hopefully it will cross Cuba over the mountains and its center will get shredded! Not to wish damnation on the people of Cuba.

it would not get destroyed since Cuba is easy to get across because of its small width

Central cuba has mountains and can take big bites out of storms

Dennis went from 4 to 1.

Different Angle

[Brent]

Looking like it'll cross west of that... closer to Havana or even the tip. I wouldn't expect much if any weakening. Charley anyone???

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looking like it'll cross west of that... closer to Havana or even the tip. I wouldn't expect much if any weakening. Charley anyone???

I say a bit Weaker and I don't think it will exit in Daytona Brent...

[krysof]

Looking like it'll cross west of that... closer to Havana or even the tip. I wouldn't expect much if any weakening. Charley anyone???

if it hits south florida, would it just move ENE or NE or more towards the NNE

[MortisFL]

All depends on the strength of the weakness. It's still got another 4-5 days probably in the caribbean.

Looking like it'll cross west of that... closer to Havana or even the tip. I wouldn't expect much if any weakening. Charley anyone???

if it hits south florida, would it just move ENE or NE or more towards the NNE

[thunderchief]

It depends on the part of cuba(if it hits cuba) and how much time it spends crossing.

If it skirts the edge like charley or Ivan than you can have little or no change.

If it plows across the middle at 6 knots then its going to weaken drastically.

[Brent]

Looking like it'll cross west of that... closer to Havana or even the tip. I wouldn't expect much if any weakening. Charley anyone???

I say a bit Weaker and I don't think it will exit in Daytona Brent...

I meant Charley in reference to Cuba. Remember??? Didn't weaken at all.

We're getting way ahead of ourselves though... it's not even forecast to be across Cuba in 5 days...

[Scorpion]

Very ominous to Florida. I have a fear this will be a destructive storm.