Wilma,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Weatherfreak14]

Hopefully by when the advisory will come out it will say due west. Looks like in the last frame that is what it is doing.

[bucman1]

Is it suppose to go westand then more nw?

[Weatherfreak14]

Yes. But since last night it had a drift southward. Now looks like it is starting to make that west to NW turn.

[Brent]

Is it suppose to go westand then more nw?

Yes...



The 11am track has no more southward motion...

[tracyswfla]

Yes. But since last night it had a drift southward. Now looks like it is starting to make that west to NW turn.

Can we please have a Wilma Wobble thread?

[Brent]

as one or two other posters here noted, the 12Z NOGAPS model has made a radical shift from the 00Z cycle. Now showing Wilma heading WNW, then NW, then N, NE, and ENE across FL late in the forecast period. In short, we now have the GFDL, GFS, and NOGAPS indicating this kind of pattern. Waiting on other 12Z models to come in, but if the UKMET shows a similar pattern, that will be three out of the major global models opting for a "recurve" scenario... one that I find highly likely given climatology.

The GFS is showing a MASSIVE MASSIVE trough over the East... we're talking freezing temperatures into North AL/GA. She's gonna make a hard right and speed up dramatically if the setup is like that.

[ROCK]

Is it suppose to go westand then more nw?

Yes...



The 11am track has no more southward motion...

Just asking, but why is the 11 am still say SW at 5 if no there is no southward movement???

[skysummit]

as one or two other posters here noted, the 12Z NOGAPS model has made a radical shift from the 00Z cycle. Now showing Wilma heading WNW, then NW, then N, NE, and ENE across FL late in the forecast period. In short, we now have the GFDL, GFS, and NOGAPS indicating this kind of pattern. Waiting on other 12Z models to come in, but if the UKMET shows a similar pattern, that will be three out of the major global models opting for a "recurve" scenario... one that I find highly likely given climatology.

The GFS is showing a MASSIVE MASSIVE trough over the East... we're talking freezing temperatures into North AL/GA. She's gonna make a hard right and speed up dramatically if the setup is like that.

Heck...if that holds true, she might make so hard of a turn, she might miss Florida all together. I doubt that front will be that strong. Although, we are getting toward the end of October already, so you never know.

[Brent]

Just asking, but why is the 11 am still say SW at 5 if no there is no southward movement???

Actually... the 11am track does have it moving .1 degree south through tonight and then due west.

[artist]

according to what I have heard usually the discussion is already in the works or finished 30 minutes or more before the actual release - that may acocunt for the discrepancy in motion.

[ROCK]

Just asking, but why is the 11 am still say SW at 5 if no there is no southward movement???

Actually... the 11am track does have it moving .1 degree south through tonight and then due west.

got it. Thanks, I thought I was seeing things for a minute.

[ROCK]

Just asking, but why is the 11 am still say SW at 5 if no there is no southward movement???

Actually... the 11am track does have it moving .1 degree south through tonight and then due west.

got it. Thanks, I thought I was seeing things for a minute.

[SkeetoBite]

GFDL slightly left, UKMET slightly right. Both aligning with NHC thoughts from 11am

[MiamiensisWx]

The 2PM advisory says it is drifting southward...

[skysummit]

The 2PM advisory says it is drifting southward...

It does look to be so on visible.

[Weatherboy1]

One thing clear in all of these model runs is that more are picking up on the idea of deeper troughing and a sharper turn to the right at the end of the forecast period. If I'm not mistaken, a day ago, both NOGAPS and the UKMET were forecasting a due west move into the Bay of Campeche. Now both are forecasting a bend to the WNW, NW, then N and in the case of NOGAPS, a move almost ENE. Same story (sharp hook) at the end of the period with the GFS and GFDL. Looks like 12UTC Euro showing the same thing as well -- a move to just W/NW of Cuba followed by a sharp right turn and move off to the ENE/NE...

Bottom line: It's definitely time to pay attention to Wilma in peninsular FL.

I can't seem to get the longer URL that takes you straight to the North America map to work, but you can start at:
http://www.ecmwf.int

Then click on the "Free access" to deterministic forecast link, and go to the North America page. You'll be able to see that by 144 hours, Wilma is hooking ENE toward FL and by 168 hours, she's off the east coast due E of the GA/FL border

Also, the HPC's day 6 front map clearly shows Wilma approaching the W Fl coast, driven by a massive front plunging into the SE US:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif

[DESTRUCTION5]

One thing clear in all of these model runs is that more are picking up on the idea of deeper troughing and a sharper turn to the right at the end of the forecast period. If I'm not mistaken, a day ago, both NOGAPS and the UKMET were forecasting a due west move into the Bay of Campeche. Now both are forecasting a bend to the WNW, NW, then N and in the case of NOGAPS, a move almost ENE. Same story (sharp hook) at the end of the period with the GFS and GFDL. Looks like 12UTC Euro showing the same thing as well -- a move to just W/NW of Cuba followed by a sharp right turn and move off to the ENE/NE...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005101712!!/

Bottom line: It's definitely time to pay attention to Wilma in peninsular FL.

Can you fix the URL?

[SouthFloridawx]

One thing clear in all of these model runs is that more are picking up on the idea of deeper troughing and a sharper turn to the right at the end of the forecast period. If I'm not mistaken, a day ago, both NOGAPS and the UKMET were forecasting a due west move into the Bay of Campeche. Now both are forecasting a bend to the WNW, NW, then N and in the case of NOGAPS, a move almost ENE. Same story (sharp hook) at the end of the period with the GFS and GFDL. Looks like 12UTC Euro showing the same thing as well -- a move to just W/NW of Cuba followed by a sharp right turn and move off to the ENE/NE...



Bottom line: It's definitely time to pay attention to Wilma in peninsular FL.

[/img]

[DESTRUCTION5]

One thing clear in all of these model runs is that more are picking up on the idea of deeper troughing and a sharper turn to the right at the end of the forecast period. If I'm not mistaken, a day ago, both NOGAPS and the UKMET were forecasting a due west move into the Bay of Campeche. Now both are forecasting a bend to the WNW, NW, then N and in the case of NOGAPS, a move almost ENE. Same story (sharp hook) at the end of the period with the GFS and GFDL. Looks like 12UTC Euro showing the same thing as well -- a move to just W/NW of Cuba followed by a sharp right turn and move off to the ENE/NE...



Bottom line: It's definitely time to pay attention to Wilma in peninsular FL.

[/img]

Holy jesus..Looks like a Major cane...

[cycloneye]

TPNT KGWC 171800
A. TROPICAL STORM WILMA
B. 17/1731Z (110)
C. 16.2N/9
D. 80.0W/8
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS -17/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .65 USING THE LOG10 SPIRAL
GIVING A DT OF 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T4.5 (IRREG CDO)

WEAVER



Air Force Sat Estimate.