Invest 93L Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#181 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:52 am

boca wrote:Stormernie I saw that it still moving NW I wonder if it will pull a Wilma type track.

Similar to Wilma, but farther east. You're behind a moderate cold front in south Florida now. It won't move behind the front.

#182 Postby **cjrciadt** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 12:20 pm

Now as good looking as before, still very large.

#183 Postby **cjrciadt** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 12:20 pm

Found the shear map

Sanibel · #184 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 12:35 pm

Hold on. There could be a center shift from the look of that surface banding.

22* Chicago...

#185 Postby **Windtalker1** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 12:38 pm

wxman57 wrote:
boca wrote:Stormernie I saw that it still moving NW I wonder if it will pull a Wilma type track.

Similar to Wilma, but farther east. You're behind a moderate cold front in south Florida now. It won't move behind the front.

I wouldn't call this a moderate cold front...I would call it a "fizzle out" cold front....made no diffrence in temps here in S FL.....there is to be 2 more fronts coming our way...one Sunday (barely noticable) and a stronger bigger one on Tuesday....I see no reason why this thing won't barrel through this minor cold front if it were to head N into the Gulf.

SWFLMom · #186 Postby **SWFLMom** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 12:43 pm

wxman57 wrote:
boca wrote:Stormernie I saw that it still moving NW I wonder if it will pull a Wilma type track.

Similar to Wilma, but farther east. You're behind a moderate cold front in south Florida now. It won't move behind the front.

What cold front? Our temps were supposed to drop 10 degrees today. It's still in the 80s.

#187 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 12:48 pm

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 12Z NOV 17

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.9 83.0 295./ 7.0
6 12.7 83.2 231./ 2.2
12 11.8 83.4 196./ 9.6

STORM DISSIPATED AT 12 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

12z GFDL dissipates the system in 12 hours.

#188 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 1:42 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20051117 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051117 1800 051118 0600 051118 1800 051119 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.0N 83.2W 14.1N 85.0W 15.2N 86.4W 16.4N 87.4W
BAMM 13.0N 83.2W 13.8N 84.8W 14.6N 86.3W 15.4N 87.4W
A98E 13.0N 83.2W 13.6N 84.1W 14.0N 85.3W 14.5N 86.4W
LBAR 13.0N 83.2W 13.7N 84.6W 14.8N 85.9W 16.2N 87.1W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051119 1800 051120 1800 051121 1800 051122 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.0N 87.5W 23.2N 83.4W 31.5N 70.2W 38.8N 52.5W
BAMM 16.1N 88.2W 18.0N 88.3W 21.2N 80.8W 27.2N 65.4W
A98E 15.7N 87.1W 17.6N 88.2W 19.2N 85.9W 21.0N 79.1W
LBAR 17.9N 87.7W 23.4N 85.8W 33.5N 73.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 33KTS 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 29KTS 26KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 83.2W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 82.5W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 81.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

18:00z Models.Ship does not go to tropical storm status.

#189 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 1:44 pm

SWFLMom wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
boca wrote:Stormernie I saw that it still moving NW I wonder if it will pull a Wilma type track.

Similar to Wilma, but farther east. You're behind a moderate cold front in south Florida now. It won't move behind the front.

What cold front? Our temps were supposed to drop 10 degrees today. It's still in the 80s.

This one; winds have shifted to the north in S. FL:

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND KEYS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
PUNTA GORDA MOSUNNY 81 66 60 N10 30.10F
FT MYERS SUNNY 81 66 60 N9 30.07F
SOUTHWEST INTL MOSUNNY 85 66 53 NW9 30.06F
NAPLES MOSUNNY 80 66 62 NE7 30.06F
EVERGLADES CTY NOT AVBL
FLAMINGO NOT AVBL
MARATHON SUNNY 83 70 64 N12 30.05F
KEY WEST INTL MOSUNNY 80 70 70 N14 30.05F

#190 Postby **Windtalker1** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 1:45 pm

cycloneye wrote: TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20051117 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051117 1800 051118 0600 051118 1800 051119 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.0N 83.2W 14.1N 85.0W 15.2N 86.4W 16.4N 87.4W
BAMM 13.0N 83.2W 13.8N 84.8W 14.6N 86.3W 15.4N 87.4W
A98E 13.0N 83.2W 13.6N 84.1W 14.0N 85.3W 14.5N 86.4W
LBAR 13.0N 83.2W 13.7N 84.6W 14.8N 85.9W 16.2N 87.1W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051119 1800 051120 1800 051121 1800 051122 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.0N 87.5W 23.2N 83.4W 31.5N 70.2W 38.8N 52.5W
BAMM 16.1N 88.2W 18.0N 88.3W 21.2N 80.8W 27.2N 65.4W
A98E 15.7N 87.1W 17.6N 88.2W 19.2N 85.9W 21.0N 79.1W
LBAR 17.9N 87.7W 23.4N 85.8W 33.5N 73.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 33KTS 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 29KTS 26KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 83.2W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 82.5W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 81.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

18:00z Models.Ship does not go to tropical storm status.

Ships & GFDL what a combo....these two thought the last TD was going to be a Major....They were wrong on that one...probably wrong here too.....

#191 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:38 pm

WONT41 KNHC 172024
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
425 PM EST THU NOV 17 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE
EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA HAS NOT DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. WHILE THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003
MB IN THE LOW...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

THE AIRCRAFT ALSO INVESTIGATED THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-SEVEN TO THE NORTH OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND DID NOT FIND A
CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE PLANE REPORTED WINDS OF
NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS
AREA.

THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE
WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM. EVEN IF DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT OCCUR...HEAVY RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

StormFury · #192 Postby **StormFury** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:40 pm

If the GFDL and SHIPS models support intensification, then most people on this forum disregard them. However, for some magical reason, as soon as the GFDL and SHIPS do not support intensification into a named storm, people once again believe in the GFDL and SHIPS.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #193 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:41 pm

It sure looks better then 27 did...But thats all...

#194 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:47 pm

What ever it is it's moving NW and will come onshore very soon in Central Nicaragua.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

mike815 · #195 Postby **mike815** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:51 pm

Im confused what system is a TD now the special disterbence statement confuses me. Thanks

jkt21787 · #196 Postby **jkt21787** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:52 pm

mike815 wrote:Im confused what system is a TD now the special disterbence statement confuses me. Thanks

No, no TDs found with any of this activity. No surface circulations.

mike815 · #197 Postby **mike815** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:55 pm

oh then that special statement was odd said a TD had formed ok thanks for that.

jkt21787 · #198 Postby **jkt21787** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:56 pm

mike815 wrote:oh then that special statement was odd said a TD had formed ok thanks for that.

Actually it didn't say that...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE
EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA HAS NOT DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. WHILE THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003
MB IN THE LOW...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

THE AIRCRAFT ALSO INVESTIGATED THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-SEVEN TO THE NORTH OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND DID NOT FIND A
CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE PLANE REPORTED WINDS OF
NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS
AREA.

mike815 · #199 Postby **mike815** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:57 pm

ok thank u been away all day. The winds are there just not the LLC thanks again.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #200 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:58 pm

The westly wind is the only thing not there...

Invest 93L Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Who is online