SW Pacific: Severe TC Larry (Ex TD 15)

[weatherwoman132]

what are the water temperatures? AND when does their hurricane season start? or tropical cyclone season start? Private message me.

[AussieMark]

the cyclone season goes from November 1 - April 30

[AussieMark]

here was the QLD outlook for this year that was issued a few months ago
notice the bolded passage

The Regional Director of the Bureau of Meteorology in Queensland, Mr Jim Davidson, said today that, based on the best available and most recent information, there was no sound meteorological basis for predicting how active the cyclone season in the Coral Sea will be.

Key indicators from the tropical Pacific confirm the continuation of a neutral climate pattern into the New Year, which is quite likely to persist through the cyclone season. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is fluctuating around the long-term mean, neither El Niño nor La Niña.

Some recent studies show an increase in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, especially in the northern hemisphere. At present, it is not possible to attribute the cause to either climate change or natural cyclic variability. An additional consideration in this region is the fact that the number of cyclones during any particular season is influenced by the phase of the SOI.

Mr Davidson also said that it is important to note that the steady growth in development along the Queensland east coast has increased community vulnerability by a much greater factor than any possible upward trend in severe cyclone numbers. Mitigation is a widely recognized strategy to reduce the impact of this increasing exposure to natural disasters.

Notwithstanding the underlying uncertainty, the number of cyclones in the Coral Sea this season is expected to lie between 2 and 4. At this early stage, it is impossible to predict the likely onset, path or intensity of any individual cyclones that might develop. Historically, the first cyclone of the season has often occurred in December, but this is not always the case.

Last season, cyclone "Ingrid" made landfall at Category 4 intensity on Cape York Peninsula. Mr Davidson emphasized that it is only a matter of time before a severe cyclone strikes a more populated part of the Queensland coast, and this has occasionally happened during otherwise quiet seasons.

The most important advice that people can receive at this time of year is to be well informed of the dangers posed by cyclones, storm tides and floods, to understand the warning services, and to be sensibly prepared.

The annual pre-season "disaster mitigation" campaign commences in Mackay this Tuesday 18 October. As in past years, the campaign is being conducted in partnership with the Queensland Department of Emergency Services and the Environmental Protection Agency - and is targeting disaster management groups in cyclone and flood prone areas of the state.

[Jim Cantore]

How strong was larry at landfall on our Saffir Simpson Scale?

[P.K.]

That report I posted would be around a mid cat 4 on the SS scale.

[AussieMark]

107 kts was a 10 minute average

what is that in 1 minute speed

P.K whats the translation formula

[Jim Cantore]

That report I posted would be around a mid cat 4 on the SS scale.

So 140-145mph

ouch

[P.K.]

107 kts was a 10 minute average

what is that in 1 minute speed

108kts converts to 124kts.

[AussieMark]

PM promises rapid cyclone aid

THE Federal Government and the military would do everything possible to help victims of Cyclone Larry, which hit far north Queensland this morning, Prime Minister John Howard said.

Mr Howard said he had spoken with Queensland Premier Peter Beattie last night, and they had agreed to work together on the relief effort.
"If any military assets are needed, they will be readily available," Mr Howard said in Melbourne.

He said that could include the use of helicopters.

"This is certainly a very fearful and challenging time for the people of far north Queensland and I want them to know that their fellow Australians are with them," he said.

Mr Howard said he was "very confident" the cyclone would not result in the chaos seen in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.

"You are never totally prepared for something like this, but I am impressed that people have already been evacuated," he said.
"Australians are very good at responding to these things because everybody pitches in."

He expressed confidence in the experience of Australian Defence Force personnel in handling disaster relief, particularly given their role in Indonesia's Banda Aceh after the tsunami.

Mr Howard, who will meet British Prime Minister Tony Blair in Melbourne this week, said he had no immediate plans to travel to the devastated area in Queensland.

"I think the important thing at the moment is to let the experts deal with the situation," he said.

[Jim Cantore]

Any pictures of the damage coming in yet?

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Yes hopefully this is the LAST time we have to go over this:

Cyclone Larry, at landfall, was a category 5 on the ATCI scale with wind gusts to 290 km/h (181 MPH). It was a category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale with maximum sustained wind speeds around 150-155 MPH.

To clarify what someone asked above for the 35th time.

[Jim Cantore]

Man conversion is confusing sometimes

[MiamiensisWx]

Any news on the destruction?

[Jim Cantore]

Any news on the destruction?

lets see 150mph, I'd guess its going to be ugly, no tracy like stuff but you know.

Tracy is listed at about 135mph I once read, I find that ridiculously low.

[CrazyC83]

I've estimated that the winds at peak intensity (not landfall) were 150 mph, based on a compromise of pressure and gusts. That means it likely made landfall at about 125 mph, since the eyewall seemed to have fallen apart as it was approaching land. I would classify it as a strong Category 3 at landfall. However, that is just my guess...

[Rod Hagen]

Any news on the destruction?

So far the major damage being reported is at Innisfail, but the reports are pretty scattered. No fatalities reported so far, but extensive property damage. It will have done huge damage to major fruit, banana and sugarcane growing areas. This area supplies much of Oz with fruit and veg during the southern winter.

Fortunately looks as if it will travel south of the Gulf of Carpentaria. these cyclones often re-intnsify and hit the NT hard if they cross the Gulf.

see http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/20 ... 595628.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/20 ... 595732.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/20 ... 595672.htm

Cheers from OZ

Rod

[Rod Hagen]

what are the water temperatures? .

See http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/late ... E=IDY00002


Cheers

Rod

[Derek Ortt]

Tracy at 135 m.p.h. (115KT) is fairly laughable and can only be arrived at by using a direct pressure to wind relation, and ignoring the PGF 100%

Tracy almost certainly was a US cat 5 based upon the 950mb pressure, and the fact that TS winds only extended 24NM from the center of the eye. Basically, it was a large tornado

[SouthFloridawx]

Tropical Cyclone Lashes Australia By MERAIAH FOLEY, Associated Press Writer
2 hours, 16 minutes ago



A powerful tropical cyclone ripped the roofs off buildings and uprooted trees, tearing across Australia's northeastern coast with powerful winds that kept emergency workers from responding to pleas from terrified residents.

With winds up to 180 mph, Tropical Cyclone Larry smashed into the coastal community of Innisfail, about 60 miles south of Cairns, a popular jumping-off point for the Great Barrier Reef, sending hundreds of tourists and residents fleeing for higher ground.

A Queensland state police spokeswoman at Innisfail said three people had so far been reported injured, including a woman struck by flying glass.

The spokeswoman, who spoke on a condition of anonymity citing agency policy, said residents had been calling the department all morning as gale force winds destroyed houses around them.

Police had not yet been able to venture out and help because the winds were still too strong, she said.

"They just have to stay put. There's nothing we can do for them," she said. "We just told them to wrap themselves in mattresses, blankets whatever they can find and just stay put."

Des Hensler, an Innisfail resident, sheltered alone in a church, up to his ankles in water.

"I don't get scared much, but this is something to make any man tremble in his boots," he told the Seven television network. "There's a gray sheet of water, horizontal to the ground, and just taking everything in its path."

Queensland state Premier Peter Beattie declared a state of emergency.

"It's the worst cyclone we've had in decades," Beattie told the Nine television network Monday.

The Bureau of Meteorology on Monday upgraded the cyclone to a category five — the strongest category possible — shortly before it crossed the coast, but then lowered it to a category four after the storm hit land.

The storm passed directly over Australia's Great Barrier Reef, but there was no immediate word on what damage the reef may have suffered.

As reports flooded in about extensive damage across the northeastern coast, government and emergency officials were meeting Monday in Canberra to discuss sending troops to help clean up the cyclone-stricken area.

"If any military assets are needed, they will be made available," Prime Minister John Howard said.

Howard said he was confident the cyclone would not result in the chaos seen in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.

Up to 50,000 homes in the region were without power, and were expected to remain without electricity for several days, said Gaylene Whenmouth, a spokeswoman for Ergon Energy Cairns.

"It is still too windy to send crews out to do restoration, but we will be doing that as soon as we can, whenever it is safe to do so," Whenmouth said.

The stretch of coast in the storm's path includes the tourist city of Cairns, popular with international travelers and the starting point for many Great Barrier Reef boat cruises.

[JtSmarts]

Some raw footage of the storm can be found here.

http://www.abc.net.au/vod/news/