TS Aletta,Sat. Images,Comments,Models,Advisories,Etc. Thread
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no advance
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Derek Ortt
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JonathanBelles
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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 301443
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006
800 AM PDT TUE MAY 30 2006
ALTHOUGH ALETTA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION...THERE IS NO
APPRECIABLE ORGANIZATION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB ARE 25 AND 30 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1230Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT COULD BE A SHADE HIGH. HIGH CLOUDS
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALETTA ARE MOVING TOWARD THE CYCLONE AT
30-35 KT...INDICATIVE OF UNFAVORABLE SHEAR...AND GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THIS SHEAR IS ONLY GOING TO GET STRONGER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BECAUSE ALETTA WILL REMAIN OVER 28-29C WATER...IT IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO GENERATE INTERMITTENT CONVECTION. THE STRONG
SHEAR AND DRY ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY
OF THE CIRCULATION.
EVEN WITH THE LATEST QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES IT IS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT THE CENTER...WHICH MIGHT INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS
FADING FASTER THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/5. ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF A MID- TO LOWER-LEVEL RIDGE AND BE STEERED
GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE DIFFICULTY HOLDING ON TO A CENTER...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1500Z 16.0N 103.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 15.9N 104.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 15.6N 105.3W 25 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 15.3N 106.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 01/1200Z 15.1N 107.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 02/1200Z 15.0N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 03/1200Z 15.0N 111.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/1200Z 15.0N 114.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
WTPZ41 KNHC 301443
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006
800 AM PDT TUE MAY 30 2006
ALTHOUGH ALETTA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION...THERE IS NO
APPRECIABLE ORGANIZATION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB ARE 25 AND 30 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1230Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT COULD BE A SHADE HIGH. HIGH CLOUDS
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALETTA ARE MOVING TOWARD THE CYCLONE AT
30-35 KT...INDICATIVE OF UNFAVORABLE SHEAR...AND GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THIS SHEAR IS ONLY GOING TO GET STRONGER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BECAUSE ALETTA WILL REMAIN OVER 28-29C WATER...IT IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO GENERATE INTERMITTENT CONVECTION. THE STRONG
SHEAR AND DRY ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY
OF THE CIRCULATION.
EVEN WITH THE LATEST QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES IT IS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT THE CENTER...WHICH MIGHT INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS
FADING FASTER THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/5. ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF A MID- TO LOWER-LEVEL RIDGE AND BE STEERED
GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE DIFFICULTY HOLDING ON TO A CENTER...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1500Z 16.0N 103.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 15.9N 104.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 15.6N 105.3W 25 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 15.3N 106.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 01/1200Z 15.1N 107.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 02/1200Z 15.0N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 03/1200Z 15.0N 111.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/1200Z 15.0N 114.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
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no advance
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- Posts: 413
- Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:50 pm
- Location: merritt is.